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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah but your point is misguided, since there was more than enough evidence that this system was going to be NBD for SNE, even a week ago. Literally impossible.

I didn’t argue that. I just said nobody knows the future was my point. Sometimes Things change in a week. Sometimes not. But go on thinking you the bomb. 

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this debate is settle-able with the simple comprehension ( or should be 'simple'  ) that everything in reality, including reality its self, exists on a probability spectrum, the either end of which is falsely assumed to be absolute.

there is no 0, and there is no 100, at the boundaries.    they are 'asymptotes'  

if you placed a gun against your temple, and pulled the trigger, there is no 100% chance of that the bullet successfully tunneling through your brain at twice the speed of sound.   there is, however, a very high degree of confidence ... stemming from an exceptionally high degree of probability of that actually taking place. 

just like there is an exceptionally low probability that the sun will not rise tomorrow - the chances of that are in fact ... NOT absolutely 0.  

everything exists between those two end points along a probability spectrum; as it concerns common everyday experience and application, is semantics. 

when people are spiking foot balls... they are semantically ( and yes sometimes dimwittedly ) pressing their outlook toward the which ever end - usually for the purposes of hyperbole, at other times, 'whining'.

then, those that are sensy types ... get offended by the hyperbole and whinny ...and feel like cops on a crusade to keep everyone verbally unoffensive. 

in either case... it's a debate that really only defines which side is has a greater coefficient of fullofshitness.

 

Yeah and then there's also this important reality:

"We have to remember that what we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." - Werner Heisenberg

And because our 'methods of questioning' are flawed and changing (not always for the better, ex 'improvements' in Euro model) those who buy into settled science are betraying their coefficient of foolishness rather plainly

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4 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said:

Yeah and then there's also this important reality:

"We have to remember that what we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." - Werner Heisenberg

And because our 'methods of questioning' are flawed and changing (not always for the better, ex 'improvements' in Euro model) those who buy into settled science are betraying their coefficient of foolishness rather plainly

When we measure and study the weather, we invariably determine it and change it.

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3 hours ago, kdxken said:

My older uncles started their familys in the mid-fifties. Hence I have a cousin Connie and a cousin Diane. No Carol...

1954 relatives:  Carol, cousin; Edna, aunt; Hazel, great aunt.  Only Hazel had much punch at our NNJ home, tipping some trees and plastering the house with fragments from the tough old leaves, probably gusting to near 60.  I have no memory of Carol, and we flew kites during Edna.

That "Diane" clip covers only New England.  There were a number of fatalities in the MA, especially PA.  Connie's 5-6" took our main lake to the highest I've seen it, but we missed the worst of Diane, with only 2-3".

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6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Anyone not around in ‘85 to see Gloria, don’t worry.. You didn’t miss too much 

Gloria…It was decent here in 85.   Best I’ve seen since.  Isaias wasn’t as good as Gloria here. But then again it shouldn’t have been cuz it wasn’t a Cane!  Gloria was legit here. The eye came right over us here. 

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