2024 - tracking the tropics

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I spent about 2 minutes the last week on it, so it isn’t a big deal for me.  I don’t wait for model runs, and watch every move it makes as others like to do.  To each their own on that.  If it were to become imminent or threatening, then we invest. 
 

I just hate the know it all “tudes.”  It’s arrogant and not needed at 7+ days out. 

We knew!

[CoastalWx]

Looks like dogshit right now

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I spent about 2 minutes the last week on it, so it isn’t a big deal for me.  I don’t wait for model runs, and watch every move it makes as others like to do.  To each their own on that.  If it were to become imminent or threatening, then we invest. 
 

I just hate the know it all “tudes.”  It’s arrogant and not needed at 7+ days out. 

It’s miserable to read but that’s just how it goes. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like dogshit right now

The common thread through all the hurricanes this season has been prolonged periods of dry air ingestion. Pretty interesting considering all were in favorable environments otherwise when it happened. 

I thought the more classic AMO SST distribution would keep stability in check this season but so far that hasn’t been the case. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The common thread through all the hurricanes this season has been prolonged periods of dry air ingestion. Pretty interesting considering all were in favorable environments otherwise when it happened. 

I thought the more classic AMO SST distribution would keep stability in check this season but so far that hasn’t been the case. 

Yeah some westerly shear not helping. 

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We knew!

This is what I don’t like…Arrogant.  Nobody knows at 7+ days out. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

This is what I don’t like…Arrogant. 

I explained why multiple times. Like Ryan said, it is easy to sniff out. 

[CoastalWx]

Wolfie not happy today.

[Hoth]

Any decent surf coming in the next day or two? Would love to catch a few waves before heading back to the mainland. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I explained why multiple times. Like Ryan said, it is easy to sniff out. 

Sure..it’s easy to sniff out, but at times(and it happens) the sniff can be wrong. We’ve seen it many times.  More often than not, your sniff will be correct, but if something is off, it changes things down the line. Especially at a week plus out in time.  
 

I know it’s more of a ball busting thing for Ineedsnow and DIT, but I just don’t like that kind of an attitude with regards to a science, that has so much chaos built in to it as meteorology does.

Point is, nobody knows anything for certain that is a week out in time/into the future.  Educated assumptions/you pointing out your ideas, that you pros recognize early on work most times, I get that, but not all times.  Bottom line for me…at 7-8 days away, there should be no football spiking in either direction. 
 

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure..it’s easy to sniff out, but at times(and it happens) the sniff can be wrong. We’ve seen it many times.  More often than not, your sniff will be correct, but if something is off, it changes things down the line. Especially at a week plus out in time.  
 

I know it’s more of a ball busting thing for Ineedsnow and DIT, but I just don’t like that kind of an attitude with regards to a science, that has so much chaos built in to it as meteorology does.

Point is, nobody knows anything for certain that is a week out in time/into the future.  Educated assumptions/you pointing out your ideas, that you pros recognize early on work most times, I get that, but not all times.  Bottom line for me…at 7-8 days away, there should be no football spiking in either direction. 
 

I can see that for winter storms etc sure. For landfalling New England canes, it's a unique thing that can be identified 7-8 days out. Longwave H5 patterns usually won't change a lot 7-8 days out. In winter, you are focusing on smaller scale shortwaves which can change, but the general longwave look does not change much. You also have ensemble guidance to help augment there. When everything is virtually unanimous showing a non-hit aside from one or two rogue ensemble members...I think confidence is almost 100% even that far out. 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I spent about 2 minutes the last week on it, so it isn’t a big deal for me.  I don’t wait for model runs, and watch every move it makes as others like to do.  To each their own on that.  If it were to become imminent or threatening, then we invest. 
 

I just hate the know it all “tudes.”  It’s arrogant and not needed at 7+ days out. 

I disagree with this to an extent. A huge part of meteorology and forecasting is having a tremendous understanding of climatology, patterns, and how pattern evolutions can influence short-term sensible weather. 

The best forecasters out there can typically have a solid understanding on how storm potential may evolve several days out or at least some expectation and these forecasters, if working within the private sector, can make some damn good money with this skill. There are people who dedicate their life and career to this sort of thing. The best forecasters can also assess forecast model data and each model and develop a sound idea of which forecast model is probably going to be the best at handling the situation. While not directly used in the field unless you're into heavy research or modeling, even having an understanding of mathematics (physics/calculus) and the governing equations can provide you clues and guidance in this regard. 

There are jobs within the private sector which almost require providing some "guarantee" or "most likely" scenario for such storms even as far as 5-6-7 days out. Many companies are understanding the need of weather and how it impacts their business and with this the private sector is growing substantially. Many places are realizing how planning around/ahead weather can save them enormous amounts of money. So let's say in the case of Ernesto, and you're either in the Northeast or someone who does business within the Northeast, and you hear of a possible hit 5-6-7 days out...you're doing to want/have to start planning on that potential this far out and you are going to want to know what this probability is so you can make your preparations. 

When it comes to tropical weather and hurricanes, we can easily know the likelihood of a potential system hitting our region as far as 7-10 days out. There is a very specific upper-level pattern that is needed to happen, this is why it is very difficult to get landfalling canes here. 

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is what I don’t like…Arrogant.  Nobody knows at 7+ days out. 

 

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure..it’s easy to sniff out, but at times(and it happens) the sniff can be wrong. We’ve seen it many times.  More often than not, your sniff will be correct, but if something is off, it changes things down the line. Especially at a week plus out in time.  
 

I know it’s more of a ball busting thing for Ineedsnow and DIT, but I just don’t like that kind of an attitude with regards to a science, that has so much chaos built in to it as meteorology does.

Point is, nobody knows anything for certain that is a week out in time/into the future.  Educated assumptions/you pointing out your ideas, that you pros recognize early on work most times, I get that, but not all times.  Bottom line for me…at 7-8 days away, there should be no football spiking in either direction. 
 

I agree with the football spiking (which I think is more in jest here imo)

But there are a lot of times where I think you can write off a system or a system’s impact here at range. I don’t think Ernesto was one of those until a few days ago for NE, but obviously it trended that way.

Honestly though, I’m not even looking at a system before looking at the steering and development/intensification environment. You may not know exactly where a system is headed but there are times where you can see the writing on the wall 7-10 days or longer out.

And there are times where the writing is wrong. I think folks here underestimate how often that happens. Just look at some of the eventual hits over the last 5 years and the conversation that precedes models locking on.

I look more often than I like to admit.  

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I agree with the football spiking (which I think is more in jest here imo)

But there are a lot of times where I think you can write off a system or a system’s impact here at range. I don’t think Ernesto was one of those until a few days ago for NE, but obviously it trended that way.

Honestly though, I’m not even looking at a system before looking at the steering and development/intensification environment. You may not know exactly where a system is headed but there are times where you can see the writing on the wall 7-10 days or longer out.

And there are times where the writing is wrong. I think folks here underestimate how often that happens. Just look at some of the eventual hits over the last 5 years and the conversation that precedes models locking on.

I look more often than I like to admit.  

That may be true in southern areas. But we are special here.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wolfie not happy today.

Facing the reality, slowly in the subconscious, that the globe is warming outside of it’s usual “cycles”. 

[Typhoon Tip]

this debate is settle-able with the simple comprehension ( or should be 'simple'  ) that everything in reality, including reality its self, exists on a probability spectrum, the either end of which is falsely assumed to be absolute.

there is no 0, and there is no 100, at the boundaries.    they are 'asymptotes'  

if you placed a gun against your temple, and pulled the trigger, there is no 100% chance of that the bullet successfully tunneling through your brain at twice the speed of sound.   there is, however, a very high degree of confidence ... stemming from an exceptionally high degree of probability of that actually taking place. 

just like there is an exceptionally low probability that the sun will not rise tomorrow - the chances of that are in fact ... NOT absolutely 0.  

everything exists between those two end points along a probability spectrum; as it concerns common everyday experience and application, is semantics. 

when people are spiking foot balls... they are semantically ( and yes sometimes dimwittedly ) pressing their outlook toward the which ever end - usually for the purposes of hyperbole, at other times, 'whining'.

then, those that are sensy types ... get offended by the hyperbole and whinny ...and feel like cops on a crusade to keep everyone verbally unoffensive. 

in either case... it's a debate that really only defines which side is has a greater coefficient of fullofshitness.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this debate is settle-able with the simple comprehension ( or should be 'simple'  ) that everything in reality, including reality its self, exists on a probability spectrum, the either end of which is falsely assumed to be absolute.

there is no 0, and there is no 100, at the boundaries.    they are 'asymptotes'  

if you placed a gun against your temple, and pulled the trigger, there is no 100% chance of that the bullet successfully tunneling through your brain at twice the speed of sound.   there is, however, a very high degree of confidence ... stemming from an exceptionally high degree of probability of that actually taking place. 

just like there is an exceptionally low probability that the sun will not rise tomorrow - the chances of that are in fact ... NOT absolutely 0.  

everything between those two end points along the probability spectrum, as it concerns common everyday experience and application, is semantics. 

when people are spiking foot balls... they are semantically ( and yes sometimes dimwittedly ) pressing their outlook toward the which ever end - usually for the purposes of hyperbole, at other times, 'whining'.

then, those that are sensy types ... get offended by the hyperbole and whinny ...and feel like cops on a crusade to keep everyone verbally unoffensive. 

in either case... it's a debate that really only defines which side is has a greater coefficient of fullofshitness.

 

Nailed it.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Facing the reality, slowly in the subconscious, that the globe is warming outside of its usual “cycles”. 

Not at ALL!    Never! 

[WinterWolf]

Let’s just get a storm up here at some point, to break up the monotony for heaven sakes. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure..it’s easy to sniff out, but at times(and it happens) the sniff can be wrong. We’ve seen it many times.  More often than not, your sniff will be correct, but if something is off, it changes things down the line. Especially at a week plus out in time.  
 

I know it’s more of a ball busting thing for Ineedsnow and DIT, but I just don’t like that kind of an attitude with regards to a science, that has so much chaos built in to it as meteorology does.

Point is, nobody knows anything for certain that is a week out in time/into the future.  Educated assumptions/you pointing out your ideas, that you pros recognize early on work most times, I get that, but not all times.  Bottom line for me…at 7-8 days away, there should be no football spiking in either direction. 
 

No spiking but often the trends point strongly in a certain direction and pro mets should say so.  Almost all forecasters predicted Sandy's sharp left turn, though not exactly when/where, such that landfall possibilities 7 days out ranged from ORF to CHH.  But we're a long way from 4/6/82 when the folks at CAR predicted cold windy flurries for the next day and got 26" instead (best bust ever!)  In their defense, everyone else also had the storm slanting east before it could impact N. Maine.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

No spiking but often the trends point strongly in a certain direction and pro mets should say so.  Almost all forecasters predicted Sandy's sharp left turn, though not exactly when/where, such that landfall possibilities 7 days out ranged from ORF to CHH.  But we're a long way from 4/6/82 when the folks at CAR predicted cold windy flurries for the next day and got 26" instead (best bust ever!)  In their defense, everyone else also had the storm slanting east before it could impact N. Maine.

I completely understand…and I agree. Just don’t like the arrogance at times. That’s Just me.  And I realize that at times, it’s more in gest so to speak too.  All good.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not at ALL!    Never! 

 

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I completely understand…and I agree. Just don’t like the arrogance at times. That’s Just me.  And I realize that at times, it’s more in gest so to speak too.  All good.  

Listen to yoself…

[Damage In Tolland]

Fight!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fight!

Good luck and let us know if you need medical assistance. 

[WinterWolf]

48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Listen to yoself…

Luke you have your ideas, and I have mine. And that’s fine. Don’t make it into anything more. 

[Hailstoned]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

This is what I don’t like…Arrogant.  Nobody knows at 7+ days out. 

Hmmm....and what of the all knowing proclamations that climate change is non-existent, and we're just going through "cycles?"

[Hailstoned]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this debate is settle-able with the simple comprehension ( or should be 'simple'  ) that everything in reality, including reality its self, exists on a probability spectrum, the either end of which is falsely assumed to be absolute.

there is no 0, and there is no 100, at the boundaries.    they are 'asymptotes'  

if you placed a gun against your temple, and pulled the trigger, there is no 100% chance of that the bullet successfully tunneling through your brain at twice the speed of sound.   there is, however, a very high degree of confidence ... stemming from an exceptionally high degree of probability of that actually taking place. 

just like there is an exceptionally low probability that the sun will not rise tomorrow - the chances of that are in fact ... NOT absolutely 0.  

everything exists between those two end points along a probability spectrum; as it concerns common everyday experience and application, is semantics. 

when people are spiking foot balls... they are semantically ( and yes sometimes dimwittedly ) pressing their outlook toward the which ever end - usually for the purposes of hyperbole, at other times, 'whining'.

then, those that are sensy types ... get offended by the hyperbole and whinny ...and feel like cops on a crusade to keep everyone verbally unoffensive. 

in either case... it's a debate that really only defines which side is has a greater coefficient of fullofshitness.

 

Of course, Mr. Galileo among others, demonstrated to the sobbing masses that all movements of the sun as perceived in casual observation from earth, are an illusion!

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

Hmmm....and what of the all knowing proclamations that climate change is non-existent, and we're just going through "cycles?"

Hmmm…that’s an opinion.  Not arrogance.  Believe whatever makes you happy. 

[Torch Tiger]

Winterwolf still doesn't get you cannot compare LR forecasting winter storms and TC"s. One of these years he will listen and learn

[TheBudMan]

Wolfie in February form here today.