Torch Tiger Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Caneada not out of play, but if the EC trough is too positively tilted it'll be kicked. But to me that looks more unlikely than it skirting there, or even a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Ernesto looks like total sh*t right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I can’t find records of a cat 5 eye ever passing over Bermuda. That’s the only worthy reason to continue tracking this thing…the impact on the island. Don’t they have the strongest/best building codes in the world? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ernesto looks like total sh*t right now. This isn't Mumbai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Don’t they have the strongest/best building codes in the world? Well Fabian a cat 3 caused a lot of damage so IDK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well Fabian a cat 3 caused a lot of damage so IDK. How much did Ernesto's brothers Gonzalo and Humberto do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Bermuda will be fine and Ernesto looks like a standard mid-grade TS that’s trying but failing to develop an inner core. It’s on schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Any chance the weakness draws this fool northwest? Gotta thread the needle.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I know most here don’t care, but it’s really interesting to me just how inconsistent and sometimes downright bad the models have been at range with regard to track. They’ve waffled a lot—whether it was taking Beryl from a Mexico coast landfall to just outside Houston (most), or keeping Debby out of the Gulf (Euro) and driving it into Alabama after landfall (GFS). The Euro and GFS seem like they’re circling each other. When one goes west, the other goes east beyond D5. It’s a huge shift west on the euro tonight, but history suggests it will be hundreds of miles east 12 hours from now. Just an interesting seasonal theme I’ve noticed. As it has been from the beginning, this is a real threat to Canada. Without that initial trough turning this north early it probably would’ve become a major east coast hit with the second trough orientation we see across guidance. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know most here don’t care, but it’s really interesting to me just how inconsistent and sometimes downright bad the models have been at range with regard to track. They’ve waffled a lot—whether it was taking Beryl from a Mexico coast landfall to just outside Houston (most), or keeping Debby out of the Gulf (Euro) and driving it into Alabama after landfall (GFS). The Euro and GFS seem like they’re circling each other. When one goes west, the other goes east beyond D5. It’s a huge shift west on the euro tonight, but history suggests it will be hundreds of miles east 12 hours from now. Just an interesting seasonal theme I’ve noticed. As it has been from the beginning, this is a real threat to Canada. Without that initial trough turning this north early it probably would’ve become a major east coast hit with the second trough orientation we see across guidance. That’s why it’s so stupid for folks to say it’s gone and what not at 7 days out…it’s as bad as wishcasting all the time. We know the models are really horrible at 5-7 days out…and especially so with tropical systems. In 12 hrs(one run) the Euro shifted about 500 miles west. This thing is still weak and disorganized, and its track is still not certain. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: That’s why it’s so stupid for folks to say it’s gone and what not at 7 days out…it’s as bad as wishcasting all the time. We know the models are really horrible at 5-7 days out…and especially so with tropical systems. In 12 hrs(one run) the Euro shifted about 500 miles west. This thing is still weak and disorganized, and its track is still not certain. It’s not stupid. We knew. There is a specific H5 setup to bring it here and it never had that look. It’s pretty clear that when it does not have that look it won’t come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Euro was an eastern outlier so makes sense to come west. Continues to be a dogshit model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know most here don’t care, but it’s really interesting to me just how inconsistent and sometimes downright bad the models have been at range with regard to track. They’ve waffled a lot—whether it was taking Beryl from a Mexico coast landfall to just outside Houston (most), or keeping Debby out of the Gulf (Euro) and driving it into Alabama after landfall (GFS). The Euro and GFS seem like they’re circling each other. When one goes west, the other goes east beyond D5. It’s a huge shift west on the euro tonight, but history suggests it will be hundreds of miles east 12 hours from now. Just an interesting seasonal theme I’ve noticed. As it has been from the beginning, this is a real threat to Canada. Without that initial trough turning this north early it probably would’ve become a major east coast hit with the second trough orientation we see across guidance. I def. noticed that because I track/forecast tha tone.....Ernesto I could not give two taints about. I knew Berly wasn't going into MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: @ineedsnowA couple of those members are pretty interesting for the benchmark!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Congrats @Hazey? Maybe Bar Harbor points east keep track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @ineedsnowA couple of those members are pretty interesting for the benchmark!! How much snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: How much snow ? What boring few years of weather...if I hadn't had my own private blizzard last January, I would have completely lost it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What boring few years of weather...if I hadn't had my own private blizzard last January, I would have completely lost it. I had 8 inches from a narrow strip during a clipper in February. That was my excitement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I had 8 inches from a narrow-waisted stripper during a big dipper dance in February. That was my excitement. To each their own.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not stupid. We knew. There is a specific H5 setup to bring it here and it never had that look. It’s pretty clear that when it does not have that look it won’t come. What’s a specific h5 setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: What’s a specific h5 setup You basically need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley and a ridge in the Atlantic steering this N to NW near Hatteras and then NNE into New England. More or less. If this was near the Bahamas we might have had a chance. As it is, it’s taking a north turnmuch too far east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Senses like people are dancing around using model uncertainty to perpetuate their dopamine drip. But, using the old school performance expectation - the models are WAY better than they were even 10 years ago. In fact, it's not a descriptive leap to suggest there's been a kind of 'hockey stick' upgrade in performance since 2010. This seems to have coincided with better tropical sounding density, improved theoretical physical processing, and sweeping upgrades in computational speeds ... In other words, it's no accident or luck - "modeling" has demonstrated that there's more confidence/narrowed 'cone of uncertainty' widths at D5 by a considerable improvement comparing the aughts of this century. SO, ...when the TC in question isn't coming to ring your doorbell, and the pattern surrounding is also less than conducive to that visitation ... we really can't justify holding out as much hope because we've got D5 to 7 to work with. Typically ...this kind of observation/op ed statement above will be summarily read as an absolute door slam, nope can't happen extremeness of intent... Which is also bad reading comprehension. I'm merely saying that you have to slide your expectations more toward trusting the D5 pattern ( withing which the TC is geophysical btw - ) more than you used to, and less toward getting a little addictive fix that there is just as much chance the next run will be the full crack-rock. lol... because, the "chances" are not like they were is previous generation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I def. noticed that because I track/forecast tha tone.....Ernesto I could not give two taints about. I knew Berly wasn't going into MX. Most of us knew it, but the models didn’t until just a few days before and I think it had a real world impact on Houston. Definitely not saying it’s coming here or even hitting land, but the model performance this season especially with track leaves a lot to be desired imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1823705939104428042?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 For New England to even sniff significant impacts you’d need the NE turn near Bermuda to essentially evaporate, and a stronger ECONUS trough to fully capture. That’s going to be extremely hard to do. I wonder if something like that is even in the record idk. Partial capture does nothing for New England imo, but for Atlantic Canada a partial capture likely brings a hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 LOL at euro from 00z to 06z. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1823705939104428042?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL at euro from 00z to 06z. Jesus. What happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 11 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: What happened Headed way east earlier on then sort of stalls about 800 miles south of Nova scotia. Definitely an Atlantic Canada threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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