SouthCoastMA Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 Actually nervous for the next 1-3 years. Violently overdue for something here, and I need to save up for a genny..but can't really afford one anytime soon. I miss not being a homeowner : 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I texted Ventrice, he said it's coming lol. Second week of August more favorable MJO. No doubt its coming....just a matter of whether it meets forecast expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No doubt its coming....just a matter of whether it meets forecast expectations. If it’s just Debby and it’s a 940 low into HVN I’m happy then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No doubt its coming....just a matter of whether it meets forecast expectations. We going to have to have a monstrous peak and a season which persists in Dec at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 15 hours ago, weatherwiz said: We going to have to have a monstrous peak and a season which persists in Dec at this rate I think the SST and OHC anomalies make it much more likely we have a November extension just like 2020, but obviously ASO are prime time for US impacts. Hyperactive still looks as close to a lock as you can get to me. Even if the wake up is delayed to say mid August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think the SST and OHC anomalies make it much more likely we have a November extension just like 2020, but obviously ASO are prime time for US impacts. Hyperactive still looks as close to a lock as you can get to me. Even if the wake up is delayed to say mid August. I would imagine once we get into a more favorable state things can get active real quick. And I'm getting beyond my knowledge here so hence the vague sentence lol. I would imagine we're dead right now because of unfavorable MJO phase or is there just too much subsidence over the Basin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would imagine once we get into a more favorable state things can get active real quick. And I'm getting beyond my knowledge here so hence the vague sentence lol. I would imagine we're dead right now because of unfavorable MJO phase or is there just too much subsidence over the Basin? It can be as fast as an atmospheric switch flip in August and September. We see that even in mediocre years. To your second question, it’s both, but the unfavorable MJO also promotes stability in addition to sinking air over the basin, which combined with it being the climatological peak of SAL, kills everything in the usual intraseaonal annual lull. The following images are from Michael Lowry. Note the massive spike of SAL in July with a rapid (albeit still high) decline. With the coming MJO change I’d expect SAL to be below the climatological norm by mid August even with additional SAL pulses. I should also note that if we do see early August activity, especially if it’s higher end, that’s also likely a harbinger of things to come. Research shows that this period has actually been an annual nadir since the AMO flip in the 90s. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It can be as fast as an atmospheric switch flip in August and September. We see that even in mediocre years. To your second question, it’s both, but the unfavorable MJO also promotes stability in addition to sinking air over the basin, which combined with it being the climatological peak of SAL, kills everything in the usual intraseaonal annual lull. The following images are from Michael Lowry. Note the massive spike of SAL in July with a rapid (albeit still high) decline. With the coming MJO change I’d expect SAL to be below the climatological norm by mid August even with additional SAL pulses. I should also note that if we do see early August activity, especially if it’s higher end, that’s also likely a harbinger of things to come. Research shows that this period has actually been an annual nadir since the AMO flip in the 90s. Great stuff, thank you! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 12z Euro trying and Eps starting to show something 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 5 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro trying and Eps starting to show something We came 1 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We came Hopefully not over that map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 that looked like sh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Please lord deliver us a tropical system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Please lord deliver us a tropical system 12z Euro and EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 I don't care if we see any effects, let's get another Category 5 monster to track! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro and EPS Always funny to see the Euro more aggressive with TCG than the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Always funny to see the Euro more aggressive with TCG than the GFS. Eps with a few east coast hits.. we watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 And so, it begins. Long tracking tropical entities. Weekly formation in the MDR with several traversing come peak time. I have a bad feeling for the E Coast. Seems all the parameters are aligned. Going out on a limb here. Several, (4) Major Hurricanes tracking in the same trajectory with back-to-back LF's somewhere in the Gulf or along the E Coast. Florida can ill afford any hurricane because of insurance rates going through the roof. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 Not sure what the Euro is picking up on but it seems pretty dead to me through at least the first half of August. At some point things will ramp up just because of climo but lots of shear, dry air, and dust. Not even seeing much in the way of waves coming off Africa and any that do are weak and fizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 We watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 18 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Not sure what the Euro is picking up on but it seems pretty dead to me through at least the first half of August. At some point things will ramp up just because of climo but lots of shear, dry air, and dust. Not even seeing much in the way of waves coming off Africa and any that do are weak and fizzle. 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: We watch Hadn’t been following until now but on first real glance the Atlantic lemon looks legit. Whether it’s a threat to the US remains to be seen but it may be given the steering pattern next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hadn’t been following until now but on first real glance the Atlantic lemon looks legit. Whether it’s a threat to the US remains to be seen but it may be given the steering pattern next week. I see the 6z GFS has picked up in it a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 6z GEFS getting more active now and even a couple hits from NC northward 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 **this is speculative discussion on a long range op run** If you’re looking for a NE threat, the 12z Euro is probably how you do it. I doubt there’s a classic cutoff over the GL Region to draw up a Long Island Express, but a stronger/more expansive ridge and weaker/slower trough should guide something around the periphery of the ridge. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz According to everyone , things should ramp up come August. Get sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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