Typhoon Tip Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 An aspect I noticed about this season along these prior months is that it's seemed like low frequency TW - or maybe the coherence is just low. But it's been like low motility counts. lol Having said that, running the models out in time from this point forward, ...there are 3 to 5 identifiable waves emerging from Africa down there so perhaps the MDR will light up for a while. The MJO desks/publication suggests both that to go along with the obvious climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Like the 1950’s/early 60’s in SNE…that was quite the heater too. Cycles. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Good discussion https://x.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1823324138544541732?s=46&t=tG3EO7ottoJCJly2pxMnSw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Like the 1950’s/early 60’s in SNE…that was quite the heater too. Cycles. Could we see a hurricane near Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nah—anything is long past post tropical by then No problem bhai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Could we see a hurricane near Greenland? It wont be a hurricane way up there. So just a storm. They get plenty of storms there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good discussion https://x.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1823324138544541732?s=46&t=tG3EO7ottoJCJly2pxMnSw IMO That will probably change over the next few days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: IMO That will probably change over the next few days anyway. Did you read the entire thread? These guys are notable experts in the long range/seasonal stuff. So clearly there is a broader discussion on the current status. I find it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did you read the entire thread? These guys are notable experts in the long range/seasonal stuff. So clearly there is a broader discussion on the current status. I find it interesting. Oh…didn’t realize it went further than the few lines there. Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh…didn’t realize it went further than the few lines there. Sorry. Yeah some interesting thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did you read the entire thread? These guys are notable experts in the long range/seasonal stuff. So clearly there is a broader discussion on the current status. I find it interesting. Is there another platform to access? X is douchy these days about non-members, a typical tactic by the greed of billionaires. ... cuz, they don't have enough money, anyway -right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 still ots but the 18z models just took a significant shift west 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 12z for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Don't do it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 It seems the Tropical Atlantic season is not turning out to be a " Way above normal " season. I believe they have already scaled down the amount of storms we should see coming out of the Atlantic. I mean.. we still have 2 weeks left in August, all of September and also most of October...so anything can happen. Just bring on Winter already ( although This winter's also looking to be lackluster ). I believe nothing when it comes to the long-range forecast for winter. Look what's happening already with the hurricane forecast for this summer.... So far it's a bust ( as far as the amount of storms go ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: still ots but the 18z models just took a significant shift west This thing is a disorganized piece of junk currently. The longer it stays like that, the more west it may come. It’s not very impressive at all so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it. still time but something big would have to change soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: still time but something big would have to change soon It's pretty much locked as a far east miss for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This thing is a disorganized piece of junk currently. The longer it stays like that, the more west it may come. It’s not very impressive at all so far. It's getting its act together though. Seems on par on terms of development or organization, in fact may even be slightly ahead of forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's pretty much locked as a far east miss for SNE. I don't think its going to be to far east in the end.. but should miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's getting its act together though. Seems on par on terms of development or organization, in fact may even be slightly ahead of forecasts. Not really if you look what recon is finding.. its a mess tight now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Not really if you look what recon is finding.. its a mess tight now Yup..I don’t know what Wiz is looking at, but I agree with you. It looks like dung. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Not really if you look what recon is finding.. its a mess tight now eh it seems on track to me with the progression and strengthening. There have been some decent sustained winds and gusts measured thus far. Once the forward speed slows a bit this evening it should get a much more organized structure. This could get to hurricane status just as it is passing northeast of Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Not really if you look what recon is finding.. its a mess tight now 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup..I don’t know what Wiz is looking at, but I agree with you. It looks like dung. When the coping is too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I don't think its going to be to far east in the end.. but should miss Maybe we'll see cirrus? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 This basically is me talking to Ineedsnow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 “Nothing is over!! Nothing!!! You don’t just stop tracking.” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This basically is me talking to Ineedsnow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I can’t find records of a cat 5 eye ever passing over Bermuda. That’s the only worthy reason to continue tracking this thing…the impact on the island. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I can’t find records of a cat 5 eye ever passing over Bermuda. That’s the only worthy reason to continue tracking this thing…the impact on the island. @Hazey and Nick still squarely in play at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now