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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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12z HWRF finally drops the EWRC-prone structure and shows a much better core structure as it bombs 98L out to the mid-930s on Thursday. It shows the system passing over/near the Virgin Islands/PR as a TS and organizes once it gets north of their latitude.
 

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I traffic light-in a city of 21M up to the 2020s.

i love it

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40 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

what would this mean?

Distilled the best I can, it’s moving so fast within the easterlies of the MDR that we don’t see the westerly wind that you would normally expect for a TC that’s moving in the basin more slowly, but that just masks the fact that organizationally it’s more vertically aligned and consolidated than one would think. Once it slows down it should intensify at a faster pace. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Distilled the best I can, it’s moving so fast within the easterlies of the MDR that we don’t see the westerly wind that you would normally expect for a TC that’s moving in the basin more slowly, but that just masks the fact that organizationally it’s more vertically aligned and consolidated than one would think. Once it slows down it should intensify at a faster pace. 

 

ernesto needs some pats before I head off to sleep

then once he slows down I agree he could take off

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We make into September without anything other than Ernesto, then I think its fair to question some of these hyper-active calls...especially if Ernesto doesn't make major status,which would cap its ACE accumulation.

I agree. Obviously we could get into September and all hell breaks loose, however, it just boggles my mind how so many people out there (professionals, amateurs) focus on one or two aspects and just go haywire with forecasts. You see it with every type of weather event and within seasonal forecasts. 

Severe - some will go absolutely wild because of hodographs 

winter - the 10:1/Kuchie maps...it's too early in the season to get me started on this crap. 

tropical - warm waters!!!!!!!!!!!

winter seasonal - weak la nina...1995-1996 redux.

But hype rules all I guess

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree. Obviously we could get into September and all hell breaks loose, however, it just boggles my mind how so many people out there (professionals, amateurs) focus on one or two aspects and just go haywire with forecasts. You see it with every type of weather event and within seasonal forecasts. 

Severe - some will go absolutely wild because of hodographs 

winter - the 10:1/Kuchie maps...it's too early in the season to get me started on this crap. 

tropical - warm waters!!!!!!!!!!!

winter seasonal - weak la nina...1995-1996 redux.

But hype rules all I guess

I think its reflective of the decay of society in general....less impulse control and a greater proclivity towards instant gratification....social media is killing us.

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29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree. Obviously we could get into September and all hell breaks loose, however, it just boggles my mind how so many people out there (professionals, amateurs) focus on one or two aspects and just go haywire with forecasts. You see it with every type of weather event and within seasonal forecasts. 

Severe - some will go absolutely wild because of hodographs 

winter - the 10:1/Kuchie maps...it's too early in the season to get me started on this crap. 

tropical - warm waters!!!!!!!!!!!

winter seasonal - weak la nina...1995-1996 redux.

But hype rules all I guess

I guess, and the season could absolutely still underperform, but the people that know tropical haven’t just relied on SSTAs. And I’ll reiterate that while this season may feel quiet, it has done the exact opposite of underperform.  With 41 ACE pre-Ernesto the season was 5th all time in ACE to date (from GAWX—it’s behind 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42)). This is with the post Beryl lull. 

All NS have impacted land. The U.S. has two hurricane landfalls. 

Now if the thought is the season needs to be in front of 1933 and just behind ‘05, sure. But ACE can’t be gamed the same way that looking just at short lived NS can. Would you rather have a bunch of short lived slop generating 35 ACE, or the earliest 5 on record and an additional hurricane out of four systems? For this time of year we’ve actually had quality stuff. 

Will it continue? I think so but it remains to be seen. 

Edit: it’s kind of like running the 400M hurdle at the Olympics. We’re off to a fast start, but we have 85% to go and any one hurdle (cough: SAL) could end that quickly. 

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