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2024 - tracking the tropics

mcglups

By mcglups,
in New England

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CoastalWx
CoastalWx
dendrite
dendrite

We're trying to get back to this...

WinterWolf
WinterWolf

Please…enough with this Mumbai BS. It isn’t even funny, and it never was. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

This seems bafflingly prisoner of the moment to me?

There’s historically about 85% of the season left at this point and we’re running ahead of climo in NS/H/MH/ACE before Ernesto even forms and potentially becomes a longish track ACE producer. We’ve had two US hurricane landfalls before Aug 15, which formed during normally hostile climatological periods. Both of those systems, while not majors at landfall (why would they be, the first MH is expected September 1) rapidly intensified in the 48-36 hours before landfall.

I feel like I do this every August around here when we’re not at like 10/5/3 by August 10 lol. The data is objectively impressive compared to the historical record. 

A number of our recent seasons produced huge peaks—I don’t see anything yet to suggest this peak won’t be big, and I’m not focusing on SSTAs or OHC in that statement though they do matter. 

Highest # of NS 8/11+: (from GAWX)
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

2017 didn’t get its first hurricane until August 8 and then pulled off 10 consecutive hurricanes mostly in September and October. There are whole ass seasons outside of the ones above that happen in a few weeks focused on the peak of the season more often than not. The average days between 1 TC forming is 14 in July and 11 in August. 

Of course things can fail. But the pre-peak activity doesn’t scream anything but top 10 season at least to me. Don’t need 28 NS for that. 

Yea, that's fair. All I am saying is it needs to fire up soon to hit 200 ACE.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The westerlies are very prominent at this latitude later in the summer and throughout the cold season....any tropical system is going to encounter those and recurve south of us, so in order to be far enough west to still track over the area, it will have crossed over a significant amount of land first....a la Debby. There is a reason that we are directly impacted by a major tropical system so infrequently...it’s not as it is further south, where you can just hope for a slightly less abrupt turn.

Said it yesterday—last EC hurricane landfall in 2020 (Isaias), last EC major 2004. You need the perfect pattern along the EC. That’s why I’m more lukewarm on the long track MDR systems. 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't doubt that. All I am saying is that it needs to fire up quickly on order to get over 200 ACE.

Ah got it. I still think it’s more likely than not even if we got one more NS after Ernesto in August. That’s where I think OHC and a cool neutral ENSO extends the season to provide more runway. 

Edit: just to show why—these anomalies aren’t going anywhere. Cool neutral reduces shear, a weak Nina is even better shear wise. If there’s an active West African Monsoon—and everything suggests it continues through the peak, even the clear recurve late season stuff could have a path to be big ACE producers. 

CjPWcAo.jpeg
 

Even warm neutral years greatly reduce shear.

Kl0qv9X.jpeg

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Said it yesterday—last EC hurricane landfall in 2020 (Isaias), last EC major 2004. You need the perfect pattern along the EC. That’s why I’m more lukewarm on the long track MDR systems. 

Ah got it. I still think it’s more likely than not even if we got one more NS after Ernesto in August. That’s where I think OHC and a cool neutral ENSO extends the season to provide more runway. 

Yes, I won't be shoecked if I look like an idiot when someone like Kevin bumps that with the benefit of hindsight in a month or two. Just an impulsive comment triggered by the subjective sentiment that seasons lke 2005 and 1995 had faced a lot less resistance to this point.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I won't be shoecked if I look like an idiot when someone like Kevin bumps that with the benefit of hindsight in a month or two. Just an impulsive comment triggered by the subjective sentiment that seasons lke 2005 and 1995 had faced a lot less resistance to this point.

I agree with you. I think that’s all we are saying. Needs to shit or get off the pot quickly and there is a MJO suppression wave coming in not too distant future. 

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted

I wonder if the delay in La Niña development could be related to the slower than expected early hurricane season? Given that the La Niña situation looks like a case of delayed not denied rather than being a La Niña fail, things are lined up perfectly for a big late season as the Nina develops and strengthens (leading to weaker wind shear). 

 

 

 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I wonder if the delay in La Niña development could be related to the slower than expected early hurricane season? Given that the La Niña situation looks like a case of delayed not denied rather than being a La Niña fail, things are lined up perfectly for a big late season as the Nina develops and strengthens (leading to weaker wind shear). 

 

 

 

I don’t think it has. Shear hasn’t really been the issue this season. If anything it’s been anomalously low. Like a lot of recent seasons, however, I think it’s been dry air/stability. 

This looks like a lot of other recent years. This looks at the environment between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

IlmNlbS.jpeg
 

Two things stand out though. The first is the recent spike in instability in this part of the MDR. If you look at an SAL plot you’ll see that the layer is further north but still present.

BQg58QB.png

In places where SAL doesn’t dominate, the instability is quite more robust further west. That’s the second thing. This is just a snapshot below but it illustrates why I think CSU has so much ACE predicted in the western Atlantic. Combine this with SAL coming off its climatological peak and all you really need are seedling waves to get west for heightened TC genesis chances.

cNodir3.jpeg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is chasing that northern vort.. once this gets figured out I think we will know more.. the models that are further west don't have it

gfs_z500_vort_atl_12.png

Ray can bun you but if it's worth anything, I noticed this myself. 

But, I didn't notice it as 'only the GFS' doing this.  I thought they all were doing a "relay capture," where a mere weakness ( yes ...some models more coherenly demo this than other ) initiates the N bias to the track, and then 500 mb carving out a saddle tough to the N is just too much to resists and it's next stop Ireland. 

I've seen that happen circumstantially over the years...It's a valid interaction. However, there are reasons to question that. 

For one, the interaction between the weakness and the fledgling TC is complex and may be that way.

Secondly, the 500 mb trough that does the final capture could be a touch over -amplified.  I've been railing on about the models having amplitude biases, particularly the GFS, in the late mids and ext ranges for years.  I don't see any indication yet of that bias no longer being the case.   It's particularly true in the winters - not as sure in their handling of summer hemispheres.

None of this above is intended to insinuate increased chances of this thing making to the Americas.  just some observations I've been making re the mode of the SW Atlantic

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ray can bun you but if it's worth anything, I noticed this myself. 

But, I didn't notice it as 'only the GFS' doing this.  I thought they all were doing a "relay capture," where a mere weakness ( yes ...some models more coherenly demo this than other ) initiates the N bias to the track, and then 500 mb carving out a saddle tough to the N is just too much to resists and it's next stop Ireland. 

I've seen that happen circumstantially over the years...however, there are reasons to question that. 

For one, the interaction between the weakness and the fledgling TC is complex and may be that way.

Secondly, the 500 mb trough that does the final capture could be  tough over -amplified.  I've been railing on about the models having amplitude biases, particularly the GFS, in the late mids and ext ranges for years.  I don't see any indication that's not the case.   It's particularly true in the winters - not as sure in in their handling of summer hemispheres.

None of this above is intended to insinuate increased chances of this thing making to the Americas.  just some observations I've been making re the mode of the SW Atlantic

12z GFS doing the same again and gets pulled north because of it

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That northern vort on the GFS that I think is screwing with the models was further west this run..  once again the GFS follows it but ended up way west of 6z this time.. 

It is definitely screwing with the model, however, in a negative way. Unless something wild were to happen, I can't see that vort being where the center develops or becoming the dominant feature. Those far western outliers should be removed really. Based on the trough progression, combined with where the ATL high is, this thing is going to re-curve sharply. However, there certainly is some room for maybe eastern Atlantic Canada to get some impact. Deviations in storm speed could increase or decrease the chance the trough capturing it and tugging it a bit back northwest. 

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CurlyHeadBarrett

CurlyHeadBarrett

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is definitely screwing with the model, however, in a negative way. Unless something wild were to happen, I can't see that vort being where the center develops or becoming the dominant feature. Those far western outliers should be removed really. Based on the trough progression, combined with where the ATL high is, this thing is going to re-curve sharply. However, there certainly is some room for maybe eastern Atlantic Canada to get some impact. Deviations in storm speed could increase or decrease the chance the trough capturing it and tugging it a bit back northwest. 

 

Fabian reincarnate?

Gonzalo brother?

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CurlyHeadBarrett

CurlyHeadBarrett

Posted
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38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Getting closer

  
Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Five, located a few hundred miles east of the 
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
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