Chrisrotary12 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 I didn’t know so many of you were interested in surf. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Time to move on. You hate to see it, reminds of the guy from the movie Wild Crazy Summer with John Cusack, the guy locked in the room waiting to win the radio contest all summer is like some here waiting for a tropical storm. If anyone gets the reference please post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: You hate to see it, reminds of the guy from the movie Wild Crazy Summer with John Cusack, the guy locked in the room waiting to win the radio contest all summer is like some here waiting for a tropical storm. If anyone gets the reference please post One crazy summer Rich little was the DJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 I'm still tracking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm still tracking 6z EPS trying to suck me back in lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Time to move on. Getting to the point where this season is irreconcilibly dissapointing from a volume/ACE perspective. This one is a lost cause. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Woah and wow gone… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 16 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Might be east of Bermuda. Scooter knows. I wasn't following along closely over the weekend, but I saw a retweet from MJO from a met along the lines of "If we get this ULL to stall here and kick the storm this way, then it waits for the next trough and blah, blah, then the threat isn't over for the east coast" and I knew it was over. When you see MJO and ineedsnow trying to bank hurricanes off of the garage to find a pathway into SNE, you need not look...its that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Woah and wow gone… 6z EPS took a pretty big shift west from 0z. I definitely wouldn't say that yet.. some would hit by the looks of it at hr144 and most track west of Bermuda now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Getting to the point where this season is irreconcilibly dissapointing from a volume/ACE perspective. This one is a lost cause. I’m sure they already have solar pressure or whatever it is to blame. We’ll need a super active September to November which I guess is possible in theory, but pretty lame season outside Beryl. At least that one was impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't following along closely over the weekend, but I saw a retweet from MJO from a met along the lines of "If we get this ULL to stall here and kick the storm this way, then it waits for the next trough and blah, blah, then the threat isn't over for the east coast" and I knew it was over. When you see MJO and ineedsnow trying to bank hurricanes off of the garage to find a pathway into SNE, you need not look...its that time. Look at the 6z Euro ensembles and tell me you can write this off 100 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 6z EPS took a pretty big shift west from 0z. I definitely wouldn't say that yet.. some would hit by the looks of it at hr144 and most track west of Bermuda now The further west it initially makes it, the sharper that parabolic curve will be underneath SNE. Same guys always chasing their own shadow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The further west it initially makes it, the sharper that parabolic curve will be underneath SNE. Same guys always chasing their own shadow. Some don't though and actually curve west a few would even threaten NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sure they already have solar pressure or whatever it is to blame. We’ll need a super active September to November which I guess is possible in theory, but pretty lame season outside Beryl. At least that one was impressive. I honestly don't think that was factored in enough....look at the uber active seasons like 1995 and 2005...they were all near solar min. There aren't any extremely high ACE seasns near solar max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 I know there have been and are some ensembles members looking "interesting" but this system never had a shot at sniffing the east coast. Just because a D11 model run shows a scenario of a storm moving up or into the coast does not mean it's a possible solution. The upper air pattern was never there for this. These troughs are a bit too progressive and the trough axis develop just a bit too far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I honestly don't think that was factored in enough....look at the uber active seasons like 1995 and 2005...they were all near solar min. There aren't any extremely high ACE seasns near solar max. I’ve never really heard of that until this year. So if the experts all knew about it, why did they whack their weenies to warm water? Warm water is one of several components. Maybe it needs more examining as this theory seems fairly new. We did have a pretty active season a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm still tracking same, who knows buddy boyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The further west it initially makes it, the sharper that parabolic curve will be underneath SNE. Same guys always chasing their own shadow. 12z tropical models do just that. Consensus is like 64W when it’s at HSE latitude. Good luck lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve never really heard of that until this year. So if the experts all knew about it, why did they whack their weenies to warm water? Warm water is one of several components. Maybe it needs more examining as this theory seems fairly new. We did have a pretty active season a few years ago. I have no divulged too deep into the tropics but wasn't much of the forcing across the IO/WPAC? It's pretty wild that both the EPAC/ATL have both been super quiet. You would expect that to be more of the case in the EPAC with the developing Nina but to have BOTH basins quiet seems weird. Only recently didn't we get some forcing across the EPAC and we saw several systems brew up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve never really heard of that until this year. So if the experts all knew about it, why did they whack their weenies to warm water? Warm water is one of several components. Maybe it needs more examining as this theory seems fairly new. We did have a pretty active season a few years ago. Well, look it up...its true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 mirin the 40kt sfmr https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0105A-INVEST_timeseries.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, look it up...its true. I’ve looked it up a few months ago when I first heard that. Seems fairly new over the last few years or so. I’ve heard of QBO theories and what not, but never heard of that until this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, look it up...its true. maybe we can blame the shitty Red Sox pitching on the solar max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 We’ve had a lot of dust too up until recently which suppresses. Still sort of early, but given the predictions, I definitely expected it to be more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I know there have been and are some ensembles members looking "interesting" but this system never had a shot at sniffing the east coast. Just because a D11 model run shows a scenario of a storm moving up or into the coast does not mean it's a possible solution. The upper air pattern was never there for this. These troughs are a bit too progressive and the trough axis develop just a bit too far east. At this range, there are always going to be some "interesting" ensemble members. These systems curving out south of NE are a mirage with respect to perceived proximity/probability of major impact in the absence of a major ULL or trough over the lakes to draw it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At this range, there are always going to be some "interesting ensemble members. Yup. One of these days those interesting members will be noteworthy but not with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 I think many will be surprised how active it'll be in 2-3 weeks. SSTs are still near record highs and shear is quite low throughout Atlantic. MJO pulse + dust settling down will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 The westerlies are very prominent at this latitude later in the summer and throughout the cold season....any tropical system is going to encounter those and recurve south of us, so in order to be far enough west to still track over the area, it will have crossed over a significant amount of land first....a la Debby. There is a reason that we are directly impacted by a major tropical system so infrequently...its not as it is further south, where you can just hope for a slightly less abrupt turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think many will be surprised how active it'll be in 2-3 weeks. SSTs are still near record highs and shear is quite low throughout Atlantic. MJO pulse + dust settling down will do the trick. I don't doubt that. All I am saying is that it needs to fire up quickly on order to get over 200 ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Getting to the point where this season is irreconcilibly dissapointing from a volume/ACE perspective. This one is a lost cause. 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sure they already have solar pressure or whatever it is to blame. We’ll need a super active September to November which I guess is possible in theory, but pretty lame season outside Beryl. At least that one was impressive. This seems bafflingly prisoner of the moment to me? There’s historically about 85% of the season left at this point and we’re running ahead of climo in NS/H/MH/ACE before Ernesto even forms and potentially becomes a longish track ACE producer. We’ve had two US hurricane landfalls before Aug 15, which formed during normally hostile climatological periods. Both of those systems, while not majors at landfall (why would they be, the first MH is expected September 1) rapidly intensified in the 48-36 hours before landfall. I feel like I do this every August around here when we’re not at like 10/5/3 by August 10 lol. The data is objectively impressive compared to the historical record. A number of our recent seasons produced huge peaks—I don’t see anything yet to suggest this peak won’t be big, and I’m not focusing on SSTAs or OHC in that statement though they do matter. Highest # of NS 8/11+: (from GAWX) 21: 2020, 05 16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50 15: 2023, 1933 2017 didn’t get its first hurricane until August 8 and then pulled off 10 consecutive hurricanes mostly in September and October. There are whole ass seasons outside of the ones above that happen in a few weeks focused on the peak of the season more often than not. The average days between 1 TC forming is 14 in July and 11 in August. Of course things can fail. But the pre-peak activity doesn’t scream anything but top 10 season at least to me. Don’t need 28 NS for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now