CoastalWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Might be east of Bermuda. Scooter knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Walt has been on top of this threat to the east coast. The slower south trend started today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Looks like more east trend today. First trough kicks it east and then the second trough which actually would work isn’t enough. Season is flaccid so far. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Ensembles weaker and south trend today is what we wanted. Lots of moving pieces to closely monitor 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Aug 2024 20:14 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 May even be east of Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 for the weenies the 18z NAM is way west compared to 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: for the weenies the 18z NAM is way west compared to 12z HAPPENING! OUCH Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating this system on Monday. The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given the current organizational state of the convection and low-level wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids beyond a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. 3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Cone is out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Might be a weird run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 At hr 60 way southwest of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 if we can get this to track a little further south and west it could become fun.. 18z GFS still ends up OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: if we can get this to track a little further south and west it could become fun.. 18z GFS still ends up OTS That was the general theme today. Slower and south good for a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Wishcasting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was the general theme today. Slower and south good for a hit Chances of this. Making it to the east coast at this point are pretty slim. Course. I'm not saying never or not happening, but very slim. I don't think this is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wishcasting kind of and just saying what needs to happen.. Gfs is close to being better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: kind of and just saying what needs to happen.. Gfs is close to being better No not you lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 The only chance this has is if it takes forever to develop otherwise it's quickly OTS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: if we can get this to track a little further south and west it could become fun.. 18z GFS still ends up OTS You risk more land interaction too. I dunno, when you start saying “but if this happens, and then this happens…” good luck. It’s just not the setup as modeled. But track away lol. Hope I’m wrong. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You risk more land interaction too. I dunno, when you start saying “but if this happens, and then this happens…” good luck. It’s just not the setup as modeled. But track away lol. Hope I’m wrong. we would need a bunch of things to go right.. its a long shot for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 wishcasts It can't go bodily through the islands, and it needs to be slow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 18z GFS is a Bermuda destroyer . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 18z EURO a bit west through 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 18z EPS definitely has more west members and some might be fun if it went past hr144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 It seems to me (and correct me if I’m mistaken) our most “recent” hurricanes were “locked in” almost a week before they happened? I can only speak of hurricane gloria for personal reference though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 17 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: It seems to me (and correct me if I’m mistaken) our most “recent” hurricanes were “locked in” almost a week before they happened? I can only speak of hurricane gloria for personal reference though You are not wrong; in a general sense a true EC threat has a solid fingerprint 5 to 7 days, sometimes 10 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 20 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: It seems to me (and correct me if I’m mistaken) our most “recent” hurricanes were “locked in” almost a week before they happened? I can only speak of hurricane gloria for personal reference though I mean in New England it’s Bob and Gloria for hurricane strikes. The last east coast hurricane was Isaias in 2020. The last major east coast hurricane was 2004. These have been hard to come by for decades. I think you can see a threatening pattern at long range, like the one we would have sans this initial trough, or Isaias, Irene, etc. but aside from Sandy I think no landfall is locked in on the east coast until D3 or D4 around here. I.e models nail the landfall point from 7+ days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Interesting perhaps that the GFS has trended weaker and further south with vorticity in the Caribbean. Trough looks deeper though so it may not matter. Second edit: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Huge West shifts for the GFS and ICON 00z operational. Wow thought we had completely lost this one… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Time to move on. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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