NotSureWeather Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 49 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: Literally not true. It has happened a lot recently for Atlantic Canada but NE had two cat 3’s in one season. Small sample size. Lots of cat ones and tropical storms. They get 3-5 every year versus 0-2 for this area. Which was the point of their post… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 He gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Whoa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Nogaps a bit west 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 He long gone… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Nogaps a bit west 6z is in the same spot atleast it's not jumping around lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 9 minutes ago, wdrag said: Seems a little interesting to me next weekend IF the possible Ernesto has slowed to the slowest cluster off the Carolinas, then it would be interesting up the coast as at this time, the GEFS is sharpening the trough along 80W. Depends of course on Ernesto actualizing per the seemingly multi models, and then running slower than the mean. Check 06z/11 180-192 hour GEFS 5H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 D4-5 struggles for the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Ernie is looking close to leaving the metaphorical womb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 5 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Ernie is looking close to leaving the metaphorical womb. Hola amigo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 As is how things almost always go with mdr threats east of leewards. Gotta miss the first trough, or it’s way out to sea. Really needs to stay well south of 20N while passing Puerto Rico for that to happen. This one has a good start point and early trajectory to miss…but it’s a coin toss considering most of latest guidance shows otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Initial trough hangs back long enough to start the north turn quickly. The turn happens too fast and too far east for the second trough over the eastern U.S. to influence it much. We’ve had cross guidance agreement on this for a bit now. Sure it could change but it looks unlikely to me. Still worth watching closely in Atlantic Canada. Casual eye here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: He gone 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whoa! 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He long gone… 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wow Ernesto and Ditty…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Initial trough hangs back long enough to start the north turn quickly. The turn happens too fast and too far east for the second trough over the eastern U.S. to influence it much. We’ve had cross guidance agreement on this for a bit now. Sure it could change but it looks unlikely to me. Still worth watching closely in Atlantic Canada. Casual eye here. We need a good hit this summer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We need a good hit this summer. From a spicy Latino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thanks for posting something of substance from an experienced, and talented MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Gone baby gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thanks for posting something of substance from an experienced, and talented MET. Thanks bro. I try to lend and teach what I’ve learned over the years to the more inexperienced here that those things like “he gone” certainly getting more interesting for the East coast 1 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Sayōnara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 interesting look at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Just generally, the initial trough is absolutely not where it needs to be for anything close to an US EC close approach. It doesn’t take much to kick an MDR system away from the coast. Respect the hell out of Walt but this can’t even get within 1,000 miles of the Carolina coast with that trough as depicted. Atlantic Canada is a different story because like Fiona and some other recent storms it’s no guarantee the initial trough is enough to pull it all the way NE into the North Atlantic. Initial trough is there at relatively short range to scoop future Ernesto up Critically, that prevents a more westerly track in advance of the second trough, which would’ve been in the general location that favors some type of close approach or EC hit. Ernesto is simply too far east to be pulled off its recurve path toward the U.S., but not far enough potentially for Canada. Like Will would say in winter, you need changes in the initial trough to start showing up immediately…for any U.S. close approach to be in the realm of possibility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 UKIE has a crazy track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 EURP way ots again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 12z EPS coming out now and some look interesting but only out to hr120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Hmmmm, would this be possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Nice bumps west today . Walt knows 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z EPS coming out now and some look interesting but only out to hr120 Hard to tell using my plot but it looks like several more NS/Newfoundland hits? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 The setup has looked more like a Bermuda/far E Canada (Newfie?) threat for several days. I wouldn't rule out a solution more quite a bit more west than the mean of the op models though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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