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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

The first thing to remember is that there are other critical factors that determine level of named storm activity and high end H/MH activity like wind shear and instability/moisture. Everything to me suggests those factors will be favorable as early as next week. 

If we’re just taking SSTs, emphatically yes. The basin is near historic to historically warm—not just in SST anomalies, but the extent of the anomalies, oceanic heat content, and those anomalies. And these temps usually peak in September. The train is coming. 

g2mk2MQ.jpeg
 

 

Bro check out the shear map TF is this??

image.png

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3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

I see this becoming a major (mogger) hurricane as well, but what category do you think?

The wave already looks really good right now and might organize quicker than expected. I wonder what analogs yall have in mind

ehhh can't really speculate as to what category at this juncture. Once you're starting to talk about the potential for a major hurricane there is the storm evolution processes which now get factored in and can play a significant influence on overall strength. I don't even feel comfortable saying "major hurricane" potential at this state, however, given what should be very favorable environmental conditions, it won't take much or long for this to really develop. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

ehhh can't really speculate as to what category at this juncture. Once you're starting to talk about the potential for a major hurricane there is the storm evolution processes which now get factored in and can play a significant influence on overall strength. I don't even feel comfortable saying "major hurricane" potential at this state, however, given what should be very favorable environmental conditions, it won't take much or long for this to really develop. 

 

I checked out the shear map and things look decent overall tbh

but IDK if this would be Beryl tier

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MDR is activating in time here ... said so myself earlier in the week, and probably so did others for their own methods.

beyond that concept, meh.   another 24 hours later, another 24 different ideas as to what that might mean out in space and time.

yesterday at this time the larger scale 'cane climate aspects had trending favorably for EC ... 

00z they look like dung...  ( modeling on average).    yet, this 12z GFS somehow manages to place a TC E of Jersey with 00z recognizable climate inference :blink: 

bottom line, no stock in any depictions beyond 120 hrs... maybe out to 168 but no

agreed that it may not be the only system.  the favorability for genesis probably last 7 to 10 days

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I want a large storm with no injuries or damage. Is that possible? lol 

A cat 3-4 in this area would be absolutely terrible. Mid tier cat 2 is the highest I would want. Never seen the hurricane dike closed in New Bedford but definitely would if that somehow happened.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok…who’s this Curly headed Guy? And what’s this Boyo crap?  Sounds like he’s related to James, and the other guy where everything is a blizzard.  

Either James or Joe 

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