CoastalWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We track Have fun. Need that trough more west on ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So was Debby right? Yep. I said OTS or it ends up over land for a thousand miles and ends up garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. I said OTS or it ends up over land for a thousand miles and ends up garbage. Yea, I remember the exchange....we said it wasn't of interest because it was either OTS, or up the coast via an inland route....just so happens that it ended up being the latter. The point was that there was no scenario on the table that had the system being pulled up quickly just off of the coast. And this was correct...I'm not sure what he is trying to claim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Have fun. Need that trough more west on ensembles. Some really fun 6z GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Just give us something to track. It’s a pleasant diversion from a crummy world anyway. I’ll even take remnants if necessary 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Remember September, 1985. TS Henri smashed into the RI/CT border on the 23rd. A few days later Gloria cut a path of destruction from Bridgeport to Atlantic Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 meh not even worth worrying about potential track until a defined center actually forms and the models have something to go off besides a naked swirl with disorganized convection. While this has a decent shot of becoming a strong hurricane, where the center actually forms and how quickly it intensifies are going to influence latitude gains...check those boxes off then start worrying about track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I remember the exchange....we said it wasn't of interest because it was either OTS, or up the coast via an inland route....just so happens that it ended up being the latter. The point was that there was no scenario on the table that had the system being pulled up quickly just off of the coast. And this was correct...I'm not sure what he is trying to claim. The H5 look as currently shown needs to be further west. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The H5 look as currently shown needs to be further west. I haven't looked at this next system really yet...I'm doing some polar domain stuff for the winter right now, but will be shifting gears shortly. Gonna be a busy week coming up...heavy, heavy blogs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 What little I have looked at for this next system is pretty ominous for SE US...gonna be either a se US hit or OTS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 I am pretty confident we are in a fairly devastating several weeks as a nation due to tropical impacts....just for @ineedsnowI have been hard on him...gotta throw that dog a weenie. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am pretty confident we are in a fairly devastating several weeks as a nation due to tropical impacts....just for @ineedsnowI have been hard on him...gotta throw that dog a weenie. Someone needs to mess with this quote...I almost want to do it myself. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: The 300hr tropical talk is almost as exciting as 300hr snow storm runs Just like winter there’s a line that can be walked. But wishcasting and mehcasting are the paths of least resistance. 24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: meh not even worth worrying about potential track until a defined center actually forms and the models have something to go off besides a naked swirl with disorganized convection. While this has a decent shot of becoming a strong hurricane, where the center actually forms and how quickly it intensifies are going to influence latitude gains...check those boxes off then start worrying about track. I agree to an extent. Looking at op runs are just weenie fodder at this range. Even looking at 500mb on them independently of one another you don’t gleam much if you’re just looking for will mby get something interesting. There’s a place for that for weenies (myself included so I’m not trying to be holier than thou) so I get it. No different than winter. BUT I do think that a long series of ensembles and op runs at range can tell you a lot about the steering environment and TC genesis/intensification environment if you’re willing to put on blinders on the other stuff. We know it’s “easier” to forecast ACWB, ridge/trough combinations, teleconnections, MJO/CCKW passage at range which all play substantial roles in tropical development and steering. Once there is a center then you can get to the other stuff, but going back to the early Debby conversation—for this area and I’d say for the entire east coast, you can see the outline of an ominous pattern/landfall window long before something develops. What drives me insane in this subforum uniquely is the rush to lock in 1938 or dismiss something that’s a threat even if it doesn’t necessarily end up 1938. You have to work the problem to the end with tropical. There are enough examples of massive guidance shifts just in the last half decade or so that impacted the U.S. or Atlantic Canada. Just my humble and long winded opinion lol. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am pretty confident we are in a fairly devastating several weeks as a nation due to tropical impacts....just for @ineedsnowI have been hard him...gotta throw that dog a weenie. About everything lines up. I expect to be on the road a lot if hits aren’t poorly timed with work. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Someone needs to mess with this quote...I almost want to do it myself. You have a what for him? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am pretty confident we are in a fairly devastating several weeks as a nation due to tropical impacts....just for @ineedsnowI have a hard on for him...gotta throw that dog my weenie. Blogging getting to you? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Me tea bagging with you? Not on my agenda, no 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am pretty confident we are in a fairly devastating several weeks as a nation due to tropical impacts....just for @ineedsnowI have been hard on him...gotta throw that dog a weenie. Damage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Can the tropics support a train of storms like is being modeled? Or will it lower the SST low enough to inhibit them? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't looked at this next system really yet...I'm doing some polar domain stuff for the winter right now, but will be shifting gears shortly. Gonna be a busy week coming up...heavy, heavy blogs. I know it's of touch, but hoping that La Nina is going to be a weak one and we have a better Winter than in last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Caging HARD at the weenieposting Anyway lemme post something for the weenies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 19 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Whatever happens with the eventual track, conditions look ripe for this one to get pretty strong. Like how strong do you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Everyone is focused on the Atlantic (with good reason), but soon-to-be Typhoon Maria in the WPAC has caught my attention. Most of the major models have it taking an unprecedented track with a sharp left hook into Japans east coast. It kind of reminds me of Sandy in that sense. I believe that Typhoon Mac in 1989 and Typhoon Lionrock in 2016 are the only other typhoons to make landfall along Japans east coast, north of Tokyo, but neither one made as sharp of a turn as what Maria is expected to make. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 15 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Can the tropics support a train of storms like is being modeled? Or will it lower the SST low enough to inhibit them? Depends on the IOH ( integrate ocean heat ). You're right that cyclone trafficking across a given region will tend to cool the surface waters, but ... if the overturning is doing so through a deeper thermocline than naturally the overturned column will remain warmer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: Everyone is focused on the Atlantic (with good reason), but soon-to-be Typhoon Maria in the WPAC has caught my attention. Most of the major models have it taking an unprecedented track with a sharp right turn into Japans east coast. It kind of reminds me of Sandy in that sense. I believe that Typhoon Mac in 1989 and Typhoon Lionrock in 2016 are the only other typhoons to make landfall along Japans east coast, north of Tokyo, but neither one made as sharp of a turn as what Maria is expected to make. Not every hurricane can be Sandy equivalent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Just now, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Not every hurricane can be Sandy equivalent I wasn't drawing comparison to the impact, just the track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Just now, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: I wasn't drawing comparison to the impact, just the track. Fair enough buddy boyo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I know it's of touch, but hoping that La Nina is going to be a weak one and we have a better Winter than in last. Regardless of what the ONI implies, it will not be weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Like how strong do you think I could see this becoming a major hurricane. Might be something that gets its act going quickly once passing Puerto Rico and that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 4 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Can the tropics support a train of storms like is being modeled? Or will it lower the SST low enough to inhibit them? The first thing to remember is that there are other critical factors that determine level of named storm activity and high end H/MH activity like wind shear and instability/moisture. Everything to me suggests those factors will be favorable as early as next week. If we’re just taking SSTs, emphatically yes. The basin is near historic to historically warm—not just in SST anomalies, but the extent of the anomalies, oceanic heat content, and those anomalies. And these temps usually peak in September. The train is coming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Just now, weatherwiz said: I could see this becoming a major hurricane. Might be something that gets its act going quickly once passing Puerto Rico and that area. I see this becoming a major (mogger) hurricane as well, but what category do you think? The wave already looks really good right now and might organize quicker than expected. I wonder what analogs yall have in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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