ineedsnow Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Things will probably pick up in a big way across the MDR soon. It should be a hyperactive peak. 12z EPS will get the weenies going lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 GGEM looks like the Euro D10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: GGEM looks like the Euro D10... Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 16 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 '54 poppin off in the 8-14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 0Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 It’s too early to really get a good sense of where it’ll track (see Debby forecast ten days ago) but the genesis signal is very strong and with good reason—this looks like a highly favorable environment across guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 5 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 0Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Gfs has it too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 He’s coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 GFS should be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS should be interesting Misses but that was close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Misses but that was close Just need to see that the trough isn’t an automatic kicker. This is an eternity away and purely speculative obviously but you roll the dice with this look. Trough weakens and it’s gone, trough cuts off for real and it’s a LI Express. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 This is precarious ... long way away, but it is closer to the canonical broader scale circulation mode - it's something like 80% 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 The headline zealots will love the 10 day Euro... ...setting us up to finally earn our own attribution badge ... actually, this could set up regardless to be fair. but that's like a 2 or 3 day easterly anomaly with tons of water, BEFORE a 'cane gets potentially sucked on in and up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: The headline zealots will love the 10 day Euro... ...setting us up to finally earn our own attribution badge ... actually, this could set up regardless to be fair. but that's like a 2 or 3 day easterly anomaly with tons of water, BEFORE a 'cane gets potentially sucked on in and up. Hopefully it's our time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 12z EPS is active with a good amount of hits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 No canes allowed that week. I’ll be overseas for work and don’t need a message to come through that a tree found itself into my living room. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Ernie he come 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Big 'un? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 GGEM still has it as well. Good agreement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 We track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 How long until this thing hits eastern Canada? 4 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: How long until this thing hits eastern Canada? OMG Please nooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1821591667138232769?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: How long until this thing hits eastern Canada? They’ve been on a heck of a heater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 In this case, we`re seeing several favorable signals in model guidance, especially for western thirds of MA/CT. First, there is sufficient 0-3km CAPE (over 200 J/kg) as warm front lifts through during late afternoon and early evening. Local CSTAR research has shown that we only need to see values of 25-75 J/kg in tropical remnant environments so that should easily be attainable. Second, environment itself favors high amounts of shear in lowest levels and in this case we have over 200 m2s2 of 0-1km shear, much of which is focused in 0-500m layer. Research has also shown the 0-500m layer can be a good discriminator for tornadoes vs non tornado environments (values of 95 or higher). Lastly, LCL heights are down to 500m which is below the typical height of about 700m. While these factors line up very well and have support from SREF Tornado Ingredients, it`s not always a lock in these situations. Certainly we`ll be on the eastern edge of more favorable area (region closer to the actual remnant low itself). But we have to watch its warm front extending eastward as well as possibility of mesolow formation along boundary to help enhance spinup. It`s also possible to have all of this occur without any lightning. It`s important to stress that these types of circulations, while potentially supportive of tornadoes, tend to be very shallow in nature and do not last very long. Radar detection can be difficult especially at farther distances from the radar. These situations are usually handled by issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with the "Tornado Possible" tag since it is difficult to track these transient couplets. However, any longer-lived couplets that do manage to form can be handled with Tornado Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 We are very due…at some point it’s going to happen. Could this possibly be the time? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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