ineedsnow Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I see this is going to be an excruciating week of reading. Christ. Some GEFS. Members heading west again down south.. not sure we'll know much until tomorrow the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I see this is going to be an excruciating week of reading. Christ. This is why we’re all here. We all have different interests and fetishes with various wx aspects. Some folks get off on rains and flooding and others on high wind / severe etc. Amyone not near. River or flooding area doesn’t get too jacked up on big rains other risk from an interest / jackpot point of view. Anyone in the hills with 5-10+ isn’t really affected. It probably won’t cut west like models are showing but if it ever did and strengthens as it transitions to ET.. I’d much prefer that . That’s just me . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 I’m rooting for anything that doesn’t destroy Vermont at this point. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 29 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I’m rooting for anything that doesn’t destroy Vermont at this point. We're trying to get back to this... 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: We're trying to get back to this... Works for me. Adding "waterfront" to my property will really boost its value. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is why we’re all here. We all have different interests and fetishes with various wx aspects. Some folks get off on rains and flooding and others on high wind / severe etc. Amyone not near. River or flooding area doesn’t get too jacked up on big rains other risk from an interest / jackpot point of view. Anyone in the hills with 5-10+ isn’t really affected. It probably won’t cut west like models are showing but if it ever did and strengthens as it transitions to ET.. I’d much prefer that . That’s just me . Different interests for sure. Nothing wrong with it. Just crazy reading at times. Unless that trough trends much deeper I have a hard time believing a Hudson like track. I think something near or just south of the south coast is most likely, bringing plenty of rain to the region. It’d still need to be pretty vigorous aloft for a severe threat if it’s going west, which I guess is possible as guidance (minus GFS) has some deepening of the low at our latitude. 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: We're trying to get back to this... I’d say I’ll take it for lake effect snow, but I don’t think it works with southerly flow in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Interesting the Euro AI is similar to the Icon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 12z Euro quite a bit north. More than I thought it’d be. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 12z Euro goes over us 4 to 5 over most of SNE 2 of that falls before.. meh on wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Lets get delivery trucks in Billerica to float into the Atlantic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 00z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 They’ll be no winds if it’s west. It’s shredded. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 That might be the most boring solution of all. All the heavy rain would be well west ( contrary to qpf output) since the front would be over NE PA up into NY and VT.. and all the wind and severe would be well east over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They’ll be no winds if it’s west. It’s shredded. It’s strengthening on models into ET. Go back to vacation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 EPS mean is just over 5 inches over the next week in SNE.. we flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Not sure I get the mod zone in NJ by the WPC, but man a 3 day high risk in the SE is crazy. Charleston goes underwater on sunny days. ...Mid-Atlantic/southern portions of the Northeast... A Moderate Risk area was raised for extreme northeast Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey where there is a growing signal for a PRE (predecessor rain event) to unfold as Tropical Cyclone Debby impacts the Southeast/Mid- Atlantic region. Training convection will refire with daytime heating Tuesday afternoon, continuing into Tuesday night. From Baltimore northeast up the I-95 corridor to the Boston metro, training storms and urbanization may cause an outsized risk of flash flooding. While there is some spread in the guidance in where the front will stall, the training storms will be capable of dumping 2 to 4 inches, locally 5+ inches which would quickly surpass local FFGs and lead to scattered to possibly widespread instances of flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Here's a thread for Debby's Remnants. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60979-debbys-remnants-heavy-rain-severe-threat/ 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Since the 5 PM update it has moved almost due east and looks like its almost outside the NHC's cone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Been almost due east for 5 hours and the east side of the center is basically over the Atlantic already. Around 16 hours before the NHC track. They should be able revise whenever they want since they have looked pretty wrong for the last 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Hopefully Debbie emerges sooner than forecast and intensifies quickly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 10 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Hopefully Debbie emerges sooner than forecast and intensifies quickly! Hope it rides the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 10 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Hopefully Debbie emerges sooner than forecast and intensifies quickly! That ship sailed..it's hollowed out and won't have enough time to re instensify 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 Bit experimental but ... There is low frequency signal for -AAM toward mid month. This correlates to strengthening of Hadley cell components ... one of which is subtropical ridge robustness coming along with it. But, this is good news for 'tropical event enthusiasts' as it creates a conducive environment; anticipating less shear at lower latitudes ( underneath the canonical nodes). Thus, with easterlies tending to improve, a general lowering of TW to environment relative shear would be logical. I saw that and wondered what the MJO is up to. Nice, "...• MJO activity entering the Indian Ocean favors increased tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic basin, with activity becoming more suppressed over the West Pacific and East Pacific..." It's like winning the lottery there a little bit ... you create a globally improved probability, then ...within that realm, the wave happens to time better for the Atlantic Basin. By the way, this shows up somewhat in the telecon spreads as well. The EPO is abruptly rising from -1 to +.5 or +1 SD by the 12th of the month. At that time, the PNA has collapsed toward neutral-negative, while the NAO is bouncing around between 0 and +1 SD. These projections have also been stable in the guidance outlooks for the last week. Despite the mid warm season correlation weakness ... this is still also a low frequency signal for less N-S orientation and more W-E structures, favoring ridge expansion. I'm sort of getting OT for tropical talk at this point ... but a warm signal is actually better for MDR correlation, because this limits the early extraction from the tropics in lieu of keeping activity moving W, longer; thus, improving odds of having to said events actually take place where the 'tropical event enthusiast' wants them happening. heh Anyway, in short, I can see why the MDR is entering another > probability period ( not just because its August, wise ass) without the MJO consideration, but having the UVM tendencies et al passing over the domain ... I like the mid month for genesis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 EPS getting active again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: EPS getting active again Have to watch the Atlantic ridge. The track of Debby shifted west because of that stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Have to watch the Atlantic ridge. The track of Debby shifted west because of that stronger than modeled. I don't think that was the case. 1) When Debbie was a swirl of clouds, forecast models struggled since there was no defined center yet, that's why there was a large disparity in initial track, anywhere from eastern Gulf to the southwest Atlantic. Models would just pick up on random bursts of convection as a "Center". However, once the swirl organized into a tropical wave and eventually developed a more defined center, it was much easier for models to get a handle on the track. 2) With no steering flow, Debbie just sat and spun across the Southeast and meandered into the Atlantic, off the coast. Now that we have somewhat of a trough digging up north, combined with an approaching front, the remnants of Debbie are being driven northwards. I don't think strength of ATL ridge played much of a factor here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 My evil plan to activate the MDR next week is coming to fruition in the models ... muah hahaha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Euro looks a little interesting day 10 though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 yeah... MDR yes threat here, lesser likely than even the low odds climo from this time range. not without a wholesale index change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Things will probably pick up in a big way across the MDR soon. It should be a hyperactive peak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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