MJO812 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Gfs buries it in the SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Cmc shifted north from 0z with debby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 So weird that after taking the other models to the woodshed early the GFS decides to do shrooms halfway through the exam. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 CMC floods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: CMC floods We flood all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d roll the dice with an icon like track Seems most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 For now perhaps. Problem with east ticks of that they could keep going lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Looks like a non event 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a non event Trying to wish it away because you’re on vacation isn’t working lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a non event We need this to gain more latitude if we want anything more (rain wise) than a run of the mill 2-4” January rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 I-95 washed away on that ICON run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Trying to wish it away because you’re on vacation isn’t working lol. It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It is If 4-8” all NEW ENG to the Canadian border is wishing it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If 4-8” all NEW ENG to the Canadian border is wishing it away Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is I'm supposed to go to Maine for a few days leaving this Friday so I'll be wishing it away with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Nah EPS. Has some good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: EPS. Has some good hits Always does with 51 members lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Big issues Tropical Storm Debby... There remains a lot of uncertainty surrounding the late week and early weekend forecast regarding the track of Tropical Storm Debby and what impacts might be seen in southern New England. While there is rather high confidence that Debby gets "hung up" in the Charleston/Savannah area early this week anticipating the low, and moisture, will eventually be steered towards our region. Impacts from Debby may begin as early as Friday and last through Sunday evening. Ensemble probabilities paint a picture of a 10 to perhaps 40% chance of 24 hour QPF exceeding 2" and a few pixels of exceeding 4" of QPF during the same period. Combining this with deterministic runs, with both the GFS and ECWMF showing wide swaths of 2-5"+ of rain across the region, its quite reasonable to deduce, based on the current forecast track of the storm, that this storm will bring a considerable amount of rain to SNE. In fact, WPC has placed us in an uncommon day FIVE marginal risk for excessive rainfall, which may be elevated in later updates. We will have a better grasp on the expected max precipitation potential and location of heaviest rain over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big issues Tropical Storm Debby... There remains a lot of uncertainty surrounding the late week and early weekend forecast regarding the track of Tropical Storm Debby and what impacts might be seen in southern New England. While there is rather high confidence that Debby gets "hung up" in the Charleston/Savannah area early this week anticipating the low, and moisture, will eventually be steered towards our region. Impacts from Debby may begin as early as Friday and last through Sunday evening. Ensemble probabilities paint a picture of a 10 to perhaps 40% chance of 24 hour QPF exceeding 2" and a few pixels of exceeding 4" of QPF during the same period. Combining this with deterministic runs, with both the GFS and ECWMF showing wide swaths of 2-5"+ of rain across the region, its quite reasonable to deduce, based on the current forecast track of the storm, that this storm will bring a considerable amount of rain to SNE. In fact, WPC has placed us in an uncommon day FIVE marginal risk for excessive rainfall, which may be elevated in later updates. We will have a better grasp on the expected max precipitation potential and location of heaviest rain over the next several days. As you guys say… We flood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WPC 7 day QPF. Fairly robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Ok fuck it let’s do it. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Icon flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ok fuck it let’s do it. It looks like there's some tendency there to evolve a heavier rain event whether Debra holds identity or not ... in fact there's a lot of synoptic argument there for D to get smeared along the ambient summer front like meat ground road kill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ok fuck it let’s do it. I was just gonna say stop being such a Debbie downer too haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 This appears to have a lot of potential. With less confidence than we usually see. The forecasted location for 48 hours out is somewhere between New Orleans and Raleigh. Should be an interesting few days for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ok fuck it let’s do it. 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon flood 18Z ICON would have been a massive hit tons of flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Gfs rots the storm down south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs rots the storm down south It has been and I can't see how that solution pans out. But we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It looks like there's some tendency there to evolve a heavier rain event whether Debra holds identity or not ... in fact there's a lot of synoptic argument there for D to get smeared along the ambient summer front like meat ground road kill. Love this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It has been and I can't see how that solution pans out. But we'll see It’s basically on its own with how extreme it is with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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