ROOSTA Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 People are still without power. It's the flooding that has affected most of the area and will continue for weeks to come. Trees are downed everywhere. Takeaway is the most destructive aspect of the storm, FLOODING. I DON'T THINK THE TROPICS ARE OVER FOR FLORIDA! I consider (one tree in front) myself to be lucky. I'll never flood, and the house is sturdy enough build well with a hurricane standard roof. No chainsaw to be had anywhere within 50 miles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 1 hour ago, ROOSTA said: People are still without power. It's the flooding that has affected most of the area and will continue for weeks to come. Trees are downed everywhere. Takeaway is the most destructive aspect of the storm, FLOODING. I DON'T THINK THE TROPICS ARE OVER FOR FLORIDA! I consider (one tree in front) myself to be lucky. I'll never flood, and the house is sturdy enough build well with a hurricane standard roof. No chainsaw to be had anywhere within 50 miles. my brother was lucky and got power back yesterday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 I wish we could shoot this up the coast but the pattern is crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Looks like it is quieting down now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like it is quieting down now. yeah ... climate infers the dimming should be happening, anyway - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like it is quieting down now. Last week we were told that there was no end in sight… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Last week we were told that there was no end in sight… He's had a tough year. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Makes sense with the MJO change. May have a last hurrah in early November but climo is rapidly moving away from tropical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 fascinating a microcane. very rare considering this thing’s history it’s safe to question how long it’s really been this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: fascinating a microcane. very rare considering this thing’s history it’s safe to question how long it’s really been this way. Cuba had blackouts today.. so anyone in eastern Cuba might not even know what's coming Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning back northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 why are cloud tops always so cold in the Pacific campared to the Atlantic? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=22W&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 On 10/21/2024 at 9:07 PM, ineedsnow said: why are cloud tops always so cold in the Pacific campared to the Atlantic? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=22W&product=ir more cold overall temps in tropopause? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 18z gfs has that future system going bonkers inCarib with a big Jamaica/Cuba hit, then looks primed for a decent FL hit/capture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Gfs has a hurricane again in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has a hurricane again in the gulf Biggun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 6Z is Milton 2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 i noticed about the recent versions of the gfs model ... it seems to be quite sensitive to tc genesis, apparently relative to the mjo predictions out in time. i wonder if they've 'goosed' the physics to do that - based upon probabilistic expectation and research wrt to mjo phasing - or if it is achieving that 'organically'. either way, the gfs seems to spin up tcs in the western caribbean at least excuse imagined/is very sensitive in that region, and from what i've noticed ... is in concert with the mjo -related uvm anomaly distribution. which, are in fact predicted to favor the cag creation ( caribbean gyre) region of the western caribbean moving into the first week of november. it's not a suspicion tho. the model had helen and milton on the d 12 charts and tho successive runs sprayed the solutions around the region down there, in principle, it was correct. good batting average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i noticed about the recent versions of the gfs model ... it seems to be quite sensitive to tc genesis, apparently relative to the mjo predictions out in time. i wonder if they've 'goosed' the physics to do that - based upon probabilistic expectation and research wrt to mjo phasing - or if it is achieving that 'organically'. either way, the gfs seems to spin up tcs in the western caribbean at least excuse imagined/is very sensitive in that region, and from what i've noticed ... is in concert with the mjo -related uvm anomaly distribution. which, are in fact predicted to favor the cag creation ( caribbean gyre) region of the western caribbean moving into the first week of november. it's not a suspicion tho. the model had helen and milton on the d 12 charts and tho successive runs sprayed the solutions around the region down there, in principle, it was correct. good batting average It "overall" has a good handle on TC genesis IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It "overall" has a good handle on TC genesis IMO. Better than the Euro/EPS, especially at range. It’ll have its western Caribbean genesis bias but it has been particularly excellent in that region this year even with modest CAG setups. With the pattern cycling back to favorable and the EPS on board for development in early November, I think that genesis signal is real. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 This would have to be some kind of record for late development down there, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: This would have to be some kind of record for late development down there, no? I don't think so. I think that area is climatologically favorable October/early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 We’ve gotten Caribbean activity as late as December. Overall climo is on the rapid downswing after about October 20, but the Caribbean can light up in active years. With SST/OHC still above average, low shear due to ENSO, and the MJO coming back around to promote rising air, we should get something to pop and it could become higher end. Nadine and Oscar overperformed in the region recently and I think the early November environment looks better than what they had. The question to me is how quickly can something consolidate. If it’s a broad mess like the Euro tries to depict it’s going to take a while to get something meaningful. A more GFS like solution gets us a larger bang to end the season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We’ve gotten Caribbean activity as late as December. Overall climo is on the rapid downswing after about October 20, but the Caribbean can light up in active years. With SST/OHC still above average, low shear due to ENSO, and the MJO coming back around to promote rising air, we should get something to pop and it could become higher end. Nadine and Oscar overperformed in the region recently and I think the early November environment looks better than what they had. The question to me is how quickly can something consolidate. If it’s a broad mess like the Euro tries to depict it’s going to take a while to get something meaningful. A more GFS like solution gets us a larger bang to end the season. I would favor the GFS, potential track nothstanding...but I am balls deep in winter at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would favor the GFS, potential track nothstanding...but I am balls deep in winter at this point. I’m ready to move on to winter, but I figured a relatively late end to the season would be on the table. Haven’t really thought of track yet but getting trapped and shunted west under a strong ridge with an eventual trough to swing this northward would be bad news for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m ready to move on to winter, but I figured a relatively late end to the season would be on the table. Haven’t really thought of track yet but getting trapped and shunted west under a strong ridge with an eventual trough to swing this northward would be bad news for someone. I agree. All I meant was I won't even look at this unless it develops and I am reasonably confident of a US threat.....so I guess you see me blog on it, its bad news for the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 12z gfs not holding back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 12z gfs not holding back Yeah, run after run. If this came to fruition, we would not have strong high pressure in the northeast, so depending on the interaction with the trof perhaps we can get some rain up here? I noted the water temperature in Caribbean and much of the Gulf is still quite a bit above normal. Climatically it is really uncommon to get a hurricane to hit the US in November but I wonder how much on average the ocean in that area cools per week this time of year? What I'm trying to say is 1C above normal like turning back the ocean clock temperature a week or even two? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 It ain't ova till it's ova. Seems that big slow-moving canes have been developing the last few seasons late. This year is no exception. Signal is strong, repeating SIGNAL IS STRONG. Not looking forward to this one in any form it takes. Flooding is still on-going and my tree isn't chopped yet. Taking a 180, first snow in Boston DEC 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted Monday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:24 PM On 10/25/2024 at 12:54 AM, ROOSTA said: It ain't ova till it's ova. Seems that big slow-moving canes have been developing the last few seasons late. This year is no exception. Signal is strong, repeating SIGNAL IS STRONG. Not looking forward to this one in any form it takes. Flooding is still on-going and my tree isn't chopped yet. Taking a 180, first snow in Boston DEC 18th. I think it’s now over haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM 23 hours ago, Sn0waddict said: I think it’s now over haha Without question. Time to get the sharpener out for the upcoming Winter Season threats. Oh, FYI the flooding from Helene and Milton are still ongoing. Move and stop building in low-level areas. People will never learn but rather blame the government officials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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