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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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People are still without power. It's the flooding that has affected most of the area and will continue for weeks to come. Trees are downed everywhere. Takeaway is the most destructive aspect of the storm, FLOODING. 

I DON'T THINK THE TROPICS ARE OVER FOR FLORIDA!

I consider (one tree in front) myself to be lucky. I'll never flood, and the house is sturdy enough build well with a hurricane standard roof. 
No chainsaw to be had anywhere within 50 miles.  

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1 hour ago, ROOSTA said:

People are still without power. It's the flooding that has affected most of the area and will continue for weeks to come. Trees are downed everywhere. Takeaway is the most destructive aspect of the storm, FLOODING. 

I DON'T THINK THE TROPICS ARE OVER FOR FLORIDA!

I consider (one tree in front) myself to be lucky. I'll never flood, and the house is sturdy enough build well with a hurricane standard roof. 
No chainsaw to be had anywhere within 50 miles.  

my brother was lucky and got power back yesterday.. 

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fascinating 

a microcane. very rare

considering this thing’s history it’s safe to question how long it’s really been this way. 

Cuba had blackouts today.. so anyone in eastern Cuba might not even know what's coming 

Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to 
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to 
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning 
back northeastward.
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i noticed about the recent versions of the gfs model ... it seems to be quite sensitive to tc genesis, apparently relative to the mjo predictions out in time.  

i wonder if they've 'goosed' the physics to do that - based upon probabilistic expectation and research wrt to mjo phasing - or if it is achieving that 'organically'.  either way, the gfs seems to spin up tcs in the western caribbean at least excuse imagined/is very sensitive in that region, and from what i've noticed ... is in concert with the mjo -related uvm anomaly distribution.  which, are in fact predicted to favor the cag creation ( caribbean gyre) region of the western caribbean moving into the first week of november.

it's not a suspicion tho.  the model had helen and milton on the d 12 charts and tho successive runs sprayed the solutions around the region down there, in principle, it was correct.   good batting average

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i noticed about the recent versions of the gfs model ... it seems to be quite sensitive to tc genesis, apparently relative to the mjo predictions out in time.  

i wonder if they've 'goosed' the physics to do that - based upon probabilistic expectation and research wrt to mjo phasing - or if it is achieving that 'organically'.  either way, the gfs seems to spin up tcs in the western caribbean at least excuse imagined/is very sensitive in that region, and from what i've noticed ... is in concert with the mjo -related uvm anomaly distribution.  which, are in fact predicted to favor the cag creation ( caribbean gyre) region of the western caribbean moving into the first week of november.

it's not a suspicion tho.  the model had helen and milton on the d 12 charts and tho successive runs sprayed the solutions around the region down there, in principle, it was correct.   good batting average

It "overall" has a good handle on TC genesis IMO.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It "overall" has a good handle on TC genesis IMO.

Better than the Euro/EPS, especially at range. It’ll have its western Caribbean genesis bias but it has been particularly excellent in that region this year even with modest CAG setups. With the pattern cycling back to favorable and the EPS on board for development in early November, I think that genesis signal is real. 

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We’ve gotten Caribbean activity as late as December. Overall climo is on the rapid downswing after about October 20, but the Caribbean can light up in active years. 

nov_1_10.png
 

With SST/OHC still above average, low shear due to ENSO, and the MJO coming back around to promote rising air, we should get something to pop and it could become higher end. Nadine and Oscar overperformed in the region recently and I think the early November environment looks better than what they had. 

carib0.png
 

carib0.png

sQozp4U.png

cXe9L0J.png
 

The question to me is how quickly can something consolidate. If it’s a broad mess like the Euro tries to depict it’s going to take a while to get something meaningful. A more GFS like solution gets us a larger bang to end the season. 

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19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’ve gotten Caribbean activity as late as December. Overall climo is on the rapid downswing after about October 20, but the Caribbean can light up in active years. 

nov_1_10.png
 

With SST/OHC still above average, low shear due to ENSO, and the MJO coming back around to promote rising air, we should get something to pop and it could become higher end. Nadine and Oscar overperformed in the region recently and I think the early November environment looks better than what they had. 

carib0.png
 

carib0.png

sQozp4U.png

cXe9L0J.png
 

The question to me is how quickly can something consolidate. If it’s a broad mess like the Euro tries to depict it’s going to take a while to get something meaningful. A more GFS like solution gets us a larger bang to end the season. 

I would favor the GFS, potential track nothstanding...but I am balls deep in winter at this point.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would favor the GFS, potential track nothstanding...but I am balls deep in winter at this point.

I’m ready to move on to winter, but I figured a relatively late end to the season would be on the table.

Haven’t really thought of track yet but getting trapped and shunted west under a strong ridge with an eventual trough to swing this northward would be bad news for someone.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m ready to move on to winter, but I figured a relatively late end to the season would be on the table.

Haven’t really thought of track yet but getting trapped and shunted west under a strong ridge with an eventual trough to swing this northward would be bad news for someone.

I agree.

All I meant was I won't even look at this unless it develops and I am reasonably confident of a US threat.....so I guess you see me blog on it, its bad news for the US.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z gfs not holding back

Yeah, run after run.  If this came to fruition, we would not have strong high pressure in the northeast, so depending on the interaction with the trof perhaps we can get some rain up here?

I noted the water temperature in Caribbean and much of the Gulf is still quite a bit above normal.  Climatically it is really uncommon to get a hurricane to hit the US in November but I wonder how much on average the ocean in that area cools per week this time of year?  What I'm trying to say is 1C above normal like turning back the ocean clock temperature  a week or even two?

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It ain't ova till it's ova.

Seems that big slow-moving canes have been developing the last few seasons late. This year is no exception. 
Signal is strong, repeating SIGNAL IS STRONG. Not looking forward to this one in any form it takes. Flooding is still on-going and my tree isn't chopped yet. 


Taking a 180, first snow in Boston DEC 18th. 

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