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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hey John... good friend and a former student of mine is the MIC at NWSFO Tampa...  Convo with him last night was pretty alarming!

prayers ...seriously.   i mean, i can imagine that conversation last night might have been similar.  

pending some kind of modeling changes ( and of course there's no crystal ball) but for the time being, this omens as one of those 'special' kind of hells

what went on the carolina high country notwithstanding

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

prayers ...seriously.   i mean, i can imagine that conversation last night might have been similar.  

pending some kind of modeling changes ( and of course there's no crystal ball) but for the time being, this omens as one of those 'special' kind of hells

what went on the carolina high country notwithstanding

Agree... Final outcomes, none of which are good, somewhat dependent on ERC and tidal timing.

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16 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Agree... Final outcomes, none of which are good, somewhat dependent on ERC and tidal timing.

theoretic stuff but ..

 ... if we erc here sooner or later, then it's a larger system that still has to pass over the nw arc of the loop current, as it ascends latitude  - consensus at 12z still looks to be tb but we'll see on that.   just wondering what a post erc, larger system then does when it hits that ohc reservoir

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looks on sat like a turn to the ene has already taken place this afternoon.  and .. it looks even more intense if that is even possible.   but i guess once a tc gets over a buck 50 its playin with shrapnel either way.   

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

looks on sat like a turn to the ene has already taken place this afternoon.  and .. it looks even more intense if that is even possible.   but i guess once a tc gets over a buck 50 its playin with shrapnel either way.   

That will keep any land interaction to a minimum....

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

looks on sat like a turn to the ene has already taken place this afternoon.  and .. it looks even more intense if that is even possible.   but i guess once a tc gets over a buck 50 its playin with shrapnel either way.   

Yup I think at 5pm they go 180 or so.. 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Absolute Beast.

Beast.jpg

I always wanted to be in a big hurricane, but this might even be to much for me.. I never thought I would hope a storm would weaken.  Also with TWC and news stations talking about weakening before landfall is probably giving people a false sense of security 

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16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I always wanted to be in a big hurricane, but this might even be to much for me.. I never thought I would hope a storm would weaken.  Also with TWC and news stations talking about weakening before landfall is probably giving people a false sense of security 

I was a freshman at UMiami in 8/92 when Andrew hit.  It was very scary.  The craziest thing was the sound of the wind.  Almost like a loud whistle.  I'm all set with going thru that again 

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It's insane how steadfast the GFS has been on a landfall extremely close to Tampa, even when it's ensembles were farther South. I mean a good chunk of guidance was always south but everything has been caving to the GFS op. I am scared for Tampa...can't imagine what those people are going through watching the updates. 

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21 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Strongest at landfall is still the 892 of Labor Day 1935, though it trails Wilma and Gilbert for lowest mb overall.

once read an accounting of the labor day event where as the eye traversed the keys ... toilet water began gashing out of toilets, presumably do to sudden drop entering the pressure well/change.    it was in the old weather almanac/book published in 1974 i think it was.   as the eye passed off the water stopped rising out of the toilets, and this unusual behavior was attributed to the sudden pressure fall in the interior. 

amazing

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Slp? Wilma 882mb

wilma's winds maxed 185 mph sustained at one point, too - as did gilbert. 

..not to far from milton

gilbert had a truly immense circulation envelopment, though.    wouldn't be shocked if gilbert owns the ise record by an embarrassing margin. but that's a trinket metric

my theory on wilma is that she was probably able to attain such a dramatic pressure fall ( almost 97 mb in 24 hours.  might be a ri record ) because she developed and stalled amidst a cag.    storms that develop in already neggie base pressure anomalies can end up deeper relatively so.   

the feb blizzard up here along the sne coast in '78 was never below 982 ... but the surrounding ambience was very elevated at detonation/bombogen phases so it had an upward biased descension curve.

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