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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Eps and Gefs might be trying to develop something off the coast for next weekend.. and the weekend after we might have to watch whatever comes off Africa.. both will probably be nothing but we watch..

They’re all nothing, till they aren’t. Kind of how it goes. At least there’s a little activity. 

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36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Eps and Gefs might be trying to develop something off the coast for next weekend.. and the weekend after we might have to watch whatever comes off Africa.. both will probably be nothing but we watch..

Yeah some signs of maybe a storm or two…..but I mean it is peak season lol.

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37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly going to have to watch the Gulf this week. If anything were to develop it would probably only have a small window for strengthening but regardless of development there could be some impressive rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast this week. 

Yawn....

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly going to have to watch the Gulf this week. If anything were to develop it would probably only have a small window for strengthening but regardless of development there could be some impressive rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast this week. 

A little surprised to see the ensemble signal there but it’s hard to bet against the BoC topography. 

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn....

Hyper inactive…

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly going to have to watch the Gulf this week. If anything were to develop it would probably only have a small window for strengthening but regardless of development there could be some impressive rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast this week. 

Who frieken cares…it’s 1600 miles away from us.  Let me know when we have some action up here Wiz... then we’ll talk. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We watch the gulf?

Really interesting how that signal evolved.

First the models were latched onto the western Caribbean wave (which if you recall came out of that monsoon trough last week) before the wave almost got washed out in the Caribbean. Then the models focused on 90L trying to do something before that got absorbed by a frontal system. Now it looks like the Caribbean wave and residual vorticity from what was 90L coalesce and try to develop as it gets pulled northward.

Still not a lock to develop because it could get pushed into Mexico too soon but if it stays offshore it could become something decent. At least break the boredom. 

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91oyzifzjqkp42dolemk
 

SE coast may be ripe for something late next week too. 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really interesting how that signal evolved.

First the models were latched onto the western Caribbean wave (which if you recall came out of that monsoon trough last week) before the wave almost got washed out in the Caribbean. Then the models focused on 90L trying to do something before that got absorbed by a frontal system. Now it looks like the Caribbean wave and residual vorticity from what was 90L coalesce and try to develop as it gets pulled northward.

Still not a lock to develop because it could get pushed into Mexico too soon but if it stays offshore it could become something decent. At least break the boredom. 

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91oyzifzjqkp42dolemk
 

SE coast may be ripe for something late next week too. 

EPS and GEFS really like that storm off the east coast next week.. 

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4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS and GEFS really like that storm off the east coast next week.. 

There’s been a persistent and broad signal for activity for a week or two now for both the Gulf and off the East Coast with all this troughing.

They didn’t develop into anything tropical, but the signal eventually produced 99L off the EC (it’s a really nice looking system off the NS coast right now) the newest non-tropical low off the Carolina coast right now, what was 90L in the Gulf and whatever happens in the next few days in the BoC. 

I think the window is open for more in the next two weeks. 

 

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