tiger_deF Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/28/2024 at 11:49 PM, WinterWolf said: F’n nonsense. Guy thinks he’s a comedian, except nobody is laughing. Expand The shameless of youth… almost enviable, on most places but a forum for weather discussion To make sure this post isn’t deleted I’ll throw in something relevant. Worth watching the current central Atlantic wave, the one behind it will almost certainly recurve. Hopefully we get a big beautiful storm out of that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 12:14 AM, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Expand There’s Kevs ‘38! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 12:14 AM, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Expand yeah, that’s sure to verify. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 12:32 AM, SJonesWX said: yeah, that’s sure to verify. Expand It’s coming …start preparing now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 12:14 AM, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Expand Good place to start. We can always lower the pressure as we get closer. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 Let's hope it is correct, but not sure that's a cat. 3 landfall. 956mb but way south of LI, would rather see 950mb over us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 12:35 AM, WinterWolf said: It’s coming …start preparing now. Expand I'm already tracking it 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 I’ll be in FL in 10 days..I swear to God if this impacts the NE in any way……… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 11:45 AM, Cyclone-68 said: I’ll be in FL in 10 days..I swear to God if this impacts the NE in any way……… Expand 6z looked interesting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 12:04 PM, CoastalWx said: 6z looked interesting for you. Expand Don’t tell my wife lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 just at a coarse look the featuring nearing 10N/30W looks like a 'zygote' entity to me. in fact it's already got a llv inflow into the western aspects, which interests me because no model really does much with it [ edit, actually the gfs's 6z appears to]. models seem to be focused further west along the itcz where presently there's only vague markers from what i can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 12z EPS has some fun members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2024 Share Posted August 29, 2024 It makes sense that we’re potentially starting to see signs of life as the EPAC goes quiet and the monsoon trough/African waves start to end up in more climatologically favored regions. Whatever comes of that MT could be worth watching generally as it gets into the Caribbean—that’s if anything develops. Shear is low across the MDR, and the shear profiles look absurdly favorable mid-September across ensembles. Although still well below normal, instability in the eastern MDR has increased markedly this month, and SAL intrusions have been less prominent. Waves just need to survive crossing the eastern MDR wasteland… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 Wow…this thread is dead as can be…f’n boring season for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 On 8/29/2024 at 12:14 AM, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Expand Tales from the GFS insane asylum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 On 8/30/2024 at 4:14 PM, WinterWolf said: Wow…this thread is dead as can be…f’n boring season for sure. Expand remember the forecasts for 25-30 storms and "hurricane season from hell" We are at 4 storms going into Sept lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 Any reason we should keep an eye on that convection in the Bahamas? To my weenie eye it has a slight cyclonic tendency. Probably sheared to hell though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 On 8/30/2024 at 4:14 PM, WinterWolf said: Wow…this thread is dead as can be…f’n boring season for sure. Expand Wait a week. On 8/30/2024 at 4:59 PM, Hoth said: Any reason we should keep an eye on that convection in the Bahamas? To my weenie eye it has a slight cyclonic tendency. Probably sheared to hell though. Expand More upper level than anything at the surface. I hinted at it in another thread days ago but I think there’s legit potential for something off the SE coast next week—maybe tropical, maybe hybrid—as a boundary settles off the coast. Probably an OTS type deal but there should be a ridge building over the top that could force it north or back west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 From looking at the National Hurricane Centre plot (understanding its 5-7 days out on a system that may or may not form), has it going into Mexico by the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 New lemon right off the TX coast…but it’d need to stay offshore to develop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 does 3 invest count as a flurry of activity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 I wouldn’t say we’re active yet, but last week we couldn’t even get convection in the tropical Atlantic lol. If the MT can produce something especially before the Antilles I think there’s high end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 If something big can develop and head toward the US gulf or east coast I might chase.. I need some excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 18z GFS Trying to get us with a STS or tropical storm next weekend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 On 8/30/2024 at 10:38 PM, ineedsnow said: 18z GFS Trying to get us with a STS or tropical storm next weekend? Expand That’s what I posted about earlier today. There’s been a cross guidance signal for something for days now. It’ll get meh’d but the signal for something offshore is there. We’ll see if it’s there next week though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 On 8/30/2024 at 7:47 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I wouldn’t say we’re active yet, but last week we couldn’t even get convection in the tropical Atlantic lol. If the MT can produce something especially before the Antilles I think there’s high end potential. Expand MT? Not Mountain Torque I take it…lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 On 8/30/2024 at 4:51 PM, Brian5671 said: remember the forecasts for 25-30 storms and "hurricane season from hell" We are at 4 storms going into Sept lol Expand That’s why you never ever take any long range forecast with much seriousness….grain of salt at best. Ya sure, sometimes things line up, but most times they don’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 SE Texas gets drilled on the 18z gfs...big 'un 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2024 Share Posted August 30, 2024 On 8/30/2024 at 10:57 PM, WinterWolf said: MT? Not Mountain Torque I take it…lol. Expand Monsoon Trough. Tends to be a good focal point for tropical genesis, but can lead to messy model signals because you get competing areas of vorticity. In this case, the monsoon trough also helps to moisten the central Atlantic. Could be useful later in September. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now