tiger_deF Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: F’n nonsense. Guy thinks he’s a comedian, except nobody is laughing. The shameless of youth… almost enviable, on most places but a forum for weather discussion To make sure this post isn’t deleted I’ll throw in something relevant. Worth watching the current central Atlantic wave, the one behind it will almost certainly recurve. Hopefully we get a big beautiful storm out of that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 16 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk There’s Kevs ‘38! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk yeah, that’s sure to verify. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: yeah, that’s sure to verify. It’s coming …start preparing now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 28 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Good place to start. We can always lower the pressure as we get closer. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 Let's hope it is correct, but not sure that's a cat. 3 landfall. 956mb but way south of LI, would rather see 950mb over us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: It’s coming …start preparing now. I'm already tracking it 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 I’ll be in FL in 10 days..I swear to God if this impacts the NE in any way……… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 18 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I’ll be in FL in 10 days..I swear to God if this impacts the NE in any way……… 6z looked interesting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z looked interesting for you. Don’t tell my wife lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 just at a coarse look the featuring nearing 10N/30W looks like a 'zygote' entity to me. in fact it's already got a llv inflow into the western aspects, which interests me because no model really does much with it [ edit, actually the gfs's 6z appears to]. models seem to be focused further west along the itcz where presently there's only vague markers from what i can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 12z EPS has some fun members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 It makes sense that we’re potentially starting to see signs of life as the EPAC goes quiet and the monsoon trough/African waves start to end up in more climatologically favored regions. Whatever comes of that MT could be worth watching generally as it gets into the Caribbean—that’s if anything develops. Shear is low across the MDR, and the shear profiles look absurdly favorable mid-September across ensembles. Although still well below normal, instability in the eastern MDR has increased markedly this month, and SAL intrusions have been less prominent. Waves just need to survive crossing the eastern MDR wasteland… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 Wow…this thread is dead as can be…f’n boring season for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 On 8/29/2024 at 1:14 AM, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS sends one ensemble as a Cat 3 into Connecticut, it is a 968mb storm over southwest Vermont next frame after Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Tales from the GFS insane asylum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wow…this thread is dead as can be…f’n boring season for sure. remember the forecasts for 25-30 storms and "hurricane season from hell" We are at 4 storms going into Sept lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 Any reason we should keep an eye on that convection in the Bahamas? To my weenie eye it has a slight cyclonic tendency. Probably sheared to hell though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wow…this thread is dead as can be…f’n boring season for sure. Wait a week. 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Any reason we should keep an eye on that convection in the Bahamas? To my weenie eye it has a slight cyclonic tendency. Probably sheared to hell though. More upper level than anything at the surface. I hinted at it in another thread days ago but I think there’s legit potential for something off the SE coast next week—maybe tropical, maybe hybrid—as a boundary settles off the coast. Probably an OTS type deal but there should be a ridge building over the top that could force it north or back west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 From looking at the National Hurricane Centre plot (understanding its 5-7 days out on a system that may or may not form), has it going into Mexico by the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 New lemon right off the TX coast…but it’d need to stay offshore to develop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 does 3 invest count as a flurry of activity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 I wouldn’t say we’re active yet, but last week we couldn’t even get convection in the tropical Atlantic lol. If the MT can produce something especially before the Antilles I think there’s high end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 If something big can develop and head toward the US gulf or east coast I might chase.. I need some excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 18z GFS Trying to get us with a STS or tropical storm next weekend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GFS Trying to get us with a STS or tropical storm next weekend? That’s what I posted about earlier today. There’s been a cross guidance signal for something for days now. It’ll get meh’d but the signal for something offshore is there. We’ll see if it’s there next week though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I wouldn’t say we’re active yet, but last week we couldn’t even get convection in the tropical Atlantic lol. If the MT can produce something especially before the Antilles I think there’s high end potential. MT? Not Mountain Torque I take it…lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 6 hours ago, Brian5671 said: remember the forecasts for 25-30 storms and "hurricane season from hell" We are at 4 storms going into Sept lol That’s why you never ever take any long range forecast with much seriousness….grain of salt at best. Ya sure, sometimes things line up, but most times they don’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 SE Texas gets drilled on the 18z gfs...big 'un 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: MT? Not Mountain Torque I take it…lol. Monsoon Trough. Tends to be a good focal point for tropical genesis, but can lead to messy model signals because you get competing areas of vorticity. In this case, the monsoon trough also helps to moisten the central Atlantic. Could be useful later in September. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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