2024 - tracking the tropics

[SnoSki14]

  On 8/25/2024 at 3:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....but take the most significant storm out of any season and it alters the perception of it rather dramatically...tropics or winter.

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I really think we need to reconsider climo and analogs throughout the year, not just winter. 

We're getting more and more unusual weather combinations than the past. 

That's why I'm not sold on a blowtorch, snowless winter just because of ENSO. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 8/25/2024 at 4:26 PM, weatherwiz said:

It has been an ongoing debate on these boards for many years and something I always go back and forth on, but I’m not so sure you can use one storm (whether it be severe, winter, tropical) to characterize a season as a whole. Sometimes the higher end events are more of a product of the short-term pattern and how the pieces evolved and interacted versus the overall regime or what regime dominated during that season. 
 

when it comes to this tropical season, what was the biggest focal point from many of the tropical forecasts? It was the forecast of a record named number of storms and these forecasts blew any previous forecasts for nunber of storms out of the water. 
 

At least up until now, can you really say this has been a wild season, regardless of what what some index says? We’re definitely going to see more storms and there certainly will be potential for major hurricanes and land falling hurricanes, however, it’s been a total dud versus expectations…period. 

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I guess my fundamental point though is…if we were expecting a historic met winter, would we say this 20% of the way through the season on December 20th or whatever? With one KU already in the books?

Actually we would  

It’s not quite apples to apples but I think expectations have been a bit out of whack. Hyperactive doesn’t mean 10/6/3 this early, unless your bar is 2005. I think a reasonable projection for Aug 31 would’ve been something like 8/4/1 so we’re short of that pace to be sure, but it’s not dramatic.

Ten days from now if we’re still 5/3/1 that’s a much bigger difference. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/25/2024 at 4:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s one metric skewed by one storm. I think there a few reasons why this season so far has been quieter in terms of named events. I know you want the ACE for winter lol.

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The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season.  It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/25/2024 at 4:29 PM, SnoSki14 said:

I really think we need to reconsider climo and analogs throughout the year, not just winter. 

We're getting more and more unusual weather combinations than the past. 

That's why I'm not sold on a blowtorch, snowless winter just because of ENSO. 

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I agree and I'm not, either...especially the snowless part.

[40/70 Benchmark]

And this really has nothing to do with winter, Scott...I'm not going big winter, regardless of what the ACE looks like. TBH, one of the best analogs was a high ACE, mild winter. If you look at most of the snowy, high ACE seasons, they were near solar min, so there are other factors at play here.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 8/25/2024 at 4:57 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I guess my fundamental point though is…if we were expecting a historic met winter, would we say this 20% of the way through the season on December 20th or whatever? With one KU already in the books?

Actually we would  

It’s not quite apples to apples but I think expectations have been a bit out of whack. Hyperactive doesn’t mean 10/6/3 this early, unless your bar is 2005. I think a reasonable projection for Aug 31 would’ve been something like 8/4/1 so we’re short of that pace to be sure, but it’s not dramatic.

Ten days from now if we’re still 5/3/1 that’s a much bigger difference. 

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it's probably more a semantics -related discussion but  'hyperactive' is/was too heavy, which ever came first

why not just say above average?  

i would argue that 'hyper'  is fleeting arleady.    commented on this a while ago today but sep's unlikely to exceed 6 tcs for a single month's production - just looking at all historically active months, to do so is rare but even if there were 7 or 8 we'd have to do that again in october, and then above normal novie for hyperactive to be a qualitative description for 2024.    

 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/25/2024 at 5:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season.  It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.

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The ACE metric to me does not define this season so far. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/25/2024 at 8:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

The ACE metric to me does not define this season so far. 

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No, but Beryl does.

[Chrisrotary12]

Always amazes me that Hawaii has like no hurricane history meanwhile Bermuda gets like 1 a year. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/25/2024 at 8:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, but Beryl does.

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Meh

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/25/2024 at 9:51 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Always amazes me that Hawaii has like no hurricane history meanwhile Bermuda gets like 1 a year. 

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It doesn't amaze me...the currents are totally different...same reason why CA doesn't hey canes and the Carolinas do.

[weathafella]

  On 8/25/2024 at 5:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season.  It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.

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Take the blizzard out and you still have a record breaker 2 weeks earlier.  But I get the point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/26/2024 at 2:11 AM, weathafella said:

Take the blizzard out and you still have a record breaker 2 weeks earlier.  But I get the point.

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Right....I said "run-of-the-mill ABOVE AVERAGE season....take it from 85" or so to like 58", which is a nice season but nothing too out of the ordinary. 

[ineedsnow]

GEFS  gone wild 

[Hazey]

CC f'ing up the tropical scene? Super flaccid out there. Give it a couple more weeks before declaring erectile dysfunction on this season. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/26/2024 at 12:36 PM, Hazey said:

CC f'ing up the tropical scene? Super flaccid out there. Give it a couple more weeks before declaring erectile dysfunction on this season. 

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Yeah it’s quiet. Just a wasteland. 

[rclab]

  On 8/26/2024 at 12:36 PM, Hazey said:

CC f'ing up the tropical scene? Super flaccid out there. Give it a couple more weeks before declaring erectile dysfunction on this season. 

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If there’s an illegal dumping of little blue pills in the Atlantic our Hurricane contest list will probably be subpoenaed. Stay well, as always …..

[Typhoon Tip]

i might uv read somewhere there's a neg correlation between the eastern pac and atl basin

it would fit as the e pac has been ensemble lining lately

[WxWatcher007]

Maybe, finally, some signs of life on the models? The signal is messy but there at least this cycle to do something with a wave that’s further south in the eastern MDR. 

Would test the theory that further south could work with enough time to mix out SAL. 

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro develops  something and the 12z EPS gone wild.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah that EPS run is wild. Many hits right into SNE up the coast. Let’s see that continue and we’ve got something .

https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1828165580970672393?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 8/26/2024 at 10:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that EPS run is wild. Many hits right into SNE up the coast. Let’s see that continue and we’ve got something .

https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1828165580970672393?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

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Then he follows it with this lol:

https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1828193932645159148?s=46&t=XiRWubWbpExod2fEMVycpA

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/27/2024 at 1:22 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Then he follows it with this lol:

https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1828193932645159148?s=46&t=XiRWubWbpExod2fEMVycpA

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It’s dead for a bit. Wild my ass.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe after the 5th there might be something. 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah forget wild. We need signs of life first lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 8/27/2024 at 1:31 AM, CoastalWx said:

Maybe after the 5th there might be something. 

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pick a model ...they've been off and on showing at least a 'dent' in the itcz pressure layouts suggesting at least tw's in that range. some have even identified by the 2nd or 3rd

i maintain, not sal, not aggregated shear stress ...not some fantasy sudden collapse of the tropical atlantic ssts ... the primary reason for the lack of development has been very spatial.

it's the low motility of tws.    hard to make babies with tail-less spermies

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/27/2024 at 2:17 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

pick a model ...they've been off and on showing at least a 'dent' in the itcz pressure layouts suggesting at least tw's in that range. some have even identified by the 2nd or 3rd

i maintain, not sal, not aggregated shear stress ...not some fantasy sudden collapse of the tropical atlantic ssts ... the primary reason for the lack of development has been very spatial.

it's the low motility of tws.    hard to make babies with tail-less spermies

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Someone needs to in vitro this biatch.

[FXWX]

  On 8/27/2024 at 1:29 AM, CoastalWx said:

It’s dead for a bit. Wild my ass.

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This is sounding more and more like when we get to mid-January with squat and start screaming about how good Feb and March are looking!

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/27/2024 at 6:16 PM, FXWX said:

This is sounding more and more like when we get to mid-January with squat and start screaming about how good Feb and March are looking!

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It will get active, but the end of the world predictions may be in trouble. 

[FXWX]

  On 8/27/2024 at 6:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

It will get active, but the end of the world predictions may be in trouble. 

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Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period.  Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions.  Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly.