Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....but take the most significant storm out of any season and it alters the perception of it rather dramatically...tropics or winter.

I really think we need to reconsider climo and analogs throughout the year, not just winter. 

We're getting more and more unusual weather combinations than the past. 

That's why I'm not sold on a blowtorch, snowless winter just because of ENSO. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It has been an ongoing debate on these boards for many years and something I always go back and forth on, but I’m not so sure you can use one storm (whether it be severe, winter, tropical) to characterize a season as a whole. Sometimes the higher end events are more of a product of the short-term pattern and how the pieces evolved and interacted versus the overall regime or what regime dominated during that season. 
 

when it comes to this tropical season, what was the biggest focal point from many of the tropical forecasts? It was the forecast of a record named number of storms and these forecasts blew any previous forecasts for nunber of storms out of the water. 
 

At least up until now, can you really say this has been a wild season, regardless of what what some index says? We’re definitely going to see more storms and there certainly will be potential for major hurricanes and land falling hurricanes, however, it’s been a total dud versus expectations…period. 

I guess my fundamental point though is…if we were expecting a historic met winter, would we say this 20% of the way through the season on December 20th or whatever? With one KU already in the books?

Actually we would :lol: 

It’s not quite apples to apples but I think expectations have been a bit out of whack. Hyperactive doesn’t mean 10/6/3 this early, unless your bar is 2005. I think a reasonable projection for Aug 31 would’ve been something like 8/4/1 so we’re short of that pace to be sure, but it’s not dramatic.

Ten days from now if we’re still 5/3/1 that’s a much bigger difference. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s one metric skewed by one storm. I think there a few reasons why this season so far has been quieter in terms of named events. I know you want the ACE for winter lol.

The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season.  It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I really think we need to reconsider climo and analogs throughout the year, not just winter. 

We're getting more and more unusual weather combinations than the past. 

That's why I'm not sold on a blowtorch, snowless winter just because of ENSO. 

I agree and I'm not, either...especially the snowless part.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I guess my fundamental point though is…if we were expecting a historic met winter, would we say this 20% of the way through the season on December 20th or whatever? With one KU already in the books?

Actually we would :lol: 

It’s not quite apples to apples but I think expectations have been a bit out of whack. Hyperactive doesn’t mean 10/6/3 this early, unless your bar is 2005. I think a reasonable projection for Aug 31 would’ve been something like 8/4/1 so we’re short of that pace to be sure, but it’s not dramatic.

Ten days from now if we’re still 5/3/1 that’s a much bigger difference. 

it's probably more a semantics -related discussion but  'hyperactive' is/was too heavy, which ever came first

why not just say above average?  

i would argue that 'hyper'  is fleeting arleady.    commented on this a while ago today but sep's unlikely to exceed 6 tcs for a single month's production - just looking at all historically active months, to do so is rare but even if there were 7 or 8 we'd have to do that again in october, and then above normal novie for hyperactive to be a qualitative description for 2024.    

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season.  It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.

The ACE metric to me does not define this season so far. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season.  It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.

Take the blizzard out and you still have a record breaker 2 weeks earlier.  But I get the point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Hazey said:

CC f'ing up the tropical scene? Super flaccid out there. Give it a couple more weeks before declaring erectile dysfunction on this season. 

If there’s an illegal dumping of little blue pills in the Atlantic our Hurricane contest list will probably be subpoenaed. Stay well, as always …..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe, finally, some signs of life on the models? The signal is messy but there at least this cycle to do something with a wave that’s further south in the eastern MDR. 

Would test the theory that further south could work with enough time to mix out SAL. 

g16split.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that EPS run is wild. Many hits right into SNE up the coast. Let’s see that continue and we’ve got something .

https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1828165580970672393?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Then he follows it with this lol:

https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1828193932645159148?s=46&t=XiRWubWbpExod2fEMVycpA

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe after the 5th there might be something. 

pick a model ...they've been off and on showing at least a 'dent' in the itcz pressure layouts suggesting at least tw's in that range. some have even identified by the 2nd or 3rd

i maintain, not sal, not aggregated shear stress ...not some fantasy sudden collapse of the tropical atlantic ssts ... the primary reason for the lack of development has been very spatial.

it's the low motility of tws.    hard to make babies with tail-less spermies

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

pick a model ...they've been off and on showing at least a 'dent' in the itcz pressure layouts suggesting at least tw's in that range. some have even identified by the 2nd or 3rd

i maintain, not sal, not aggregated shear stress ...not some fantasy sudden collapse of the tropical atlantic ssts ... the primary reason for the lack of development has been very spatial.

it's the low motility of tws.    hard to make babies with tail-less spermies

Someone needs to in vitro this biatch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

This is sounding more and more like when we get to mid-January with squat and start screaming about how good Feb and March are looking!

It will get active, but the end of the world predictions may be in trouble. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will get active, but the end of the world predictions may be in trouble. 

Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period.  Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions.  Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...