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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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Today's 06z models are still very bullish. No tales from Mumbai loonyland here.

ICON: 944 mb at 108 hrs, probably a cat 4.
HWRF: 948 mb at 60 hrs with peak winds of 108 kt, a strong cat 3.
HMON: 955 mb at 51 hrs with peak winds of 116 kt, a cat 4.
HAFS-A: 947 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 109 kt, a strong cat 3. Intensification is much more gradual though.
HAFS-B: 957 mb at 48 hrs with peak winds of 110 kt, a strong cat 3.

These models together would blend to a high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4 hurricane (around 950 mb / 113 kt assuming ICON's 944 mb would result in ~120 kt).

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Category 1 more than 980 mb
28.9395 in
74 - 95 mph 4 -5 ft. Minimal
Category 2 965 - 979 mb
28.49655 - 28.90997 in
96 - 110 mph 6 - 8 ft. Moderate
Category 3 945 - 964 mb
27.90594 - 28.46702 in
111 - 130 mph 9 - 12 ft. Extensive
Category 4 920 - 944 mb
27.16769 - 27.87641 in
131 - 155 mph 13 - 18 ft. Extreme
Category 5 919 mb
27.13816 in
Over 155 mph Over 18 ft. Catastrophic
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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro couldn’t hold a consistent track on this one even if it were threatened with being unplugged. 

12z yesterday to today shifted 200 mi? wsw

Bermuda went from barely getting the left quadrant to crushed lol  Actually, Bermuda is nearly too far east for an inner eyewall (unless it's massive) on todays 12z

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

None of those years sucked for snowfall the ensuing winter...at least there is that-

3 of 4 here, as 05-06 was a full-on ratter at my place, the only winter in which I saw no storms 6"+ since 1967-68 in NNJ.  (The other 3 all were waaaay AN.)

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53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We tried to tell yall a week ago…

I spent about 2 minutes the last week on it, so it isn’t a big deal for me.  I don’t wait for model runs, and watch every move it makes as others like to do.  To each their own on that.  If it were to become imminent or threatening, then we invest. 
 

I just hate the know it all “tudes.”  It’s arrogant and not needed at 7+ days out. 

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