2024 - tracking the tropics

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some give up to easy.. the chances of getting anything are minimal here but doesn't mean you can't drive somewhere for some fun.. some members of the EPS would be fun for the cape.. until they all go far ots we watch 

The most aggressive members imply high surf and maybe some rain for the outter cape and ACK.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some give up to easy.. the chances of getting anything are minimal here but doesn't mean you can't drive somewhere for some fun.. some members of the EPS would be fun for the cape.. until they all go far ots we watch 

06z models are quite bullish in terms of strength.

ICON: 939 mb at 108 hrs, probably a high-end cat 4.
HWRF: 953 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 105 kt, a strong cat 3.
HMON: 950 mb at 87 hrs with peak winds of 117 kt, a cat 4.
HAFS-A: 957 mb at 114 hrs but with unusually low winds of 'only' 85 kt, cat 2.
HAFS-B: 956 mb at 123 hrs with peak winds of 93 kt, a high-end cat 2.

These models together would blend to a cat 3 hurricane (around 951 mb / 105 kt assuming ICON's 939 mb would result in ~130 kt).

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The most aggressive members imply high surf and maybe some rain for the outter cape and ACK.

 

ACK!

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

HWRF and GFS predicting a donut structure, delicious!

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its reflective of the decay of society in general....less impulse control and a greater proclivity towards instant gratification....social media is killing us.

Couldn't agree more. 

[weatherwiz]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I guess, and the season could absolutely still underperform, but the people that know tropical haven’t just relied on SSTAs. And I’ll reiterate that while this season may feel quiet, it has done the exact opposite of underperform.  With 41 ACE pre-Ernesto the season was 5th all time in ACE to date (from GAWX—it’s behind 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42)). This is with the post Beryl lull. 

All NS have impacted land. The U.S. has two hurricane landfalls. 

Now if the thought is the season needs to be in front of 1933 and just behind ‘05, sure. But ACE can’t be gamed the same way that looking just at short lived NS can. Would you rather have a bunch of short lived slop generating 35 ACE, or the earliest 5 on record and an additional hurricane out of four systems? For this time of year we’ve actually had quality stuff. 

Will it continue? I think so but it remains to be seen. 

Edit: it’s kind of like running the 400M hurdle at the Olympics. We’re off to a fast start, but we have 85% to go and any one hurdle (cough: SAL) could end that quickly. 

I get what you're saying, makes sense. I guess with this, what we also need to throw out there is perspective and quantification. There are many different ways I guess we can quantify the season thus far. 

1) The number of named storms has been a bit underwhelming comparted to history, especially during a period which was thought to be very favorable for the ATL (low shear, developing Nina). 

2) Of the few storms, we had the absolute monster in Beryl - but how much does this skew things so far or is this a sign of what we could be looking at one/if activity ramps up?

3) You're point there in the bolded is something which I think all of us weather enthusiasts like to debate. We talk about this alot in the winter. What makes a winter memorable, is it one massive 2'+ blizzard or is it a bunch of 3-6'' events which add up?   

[ineedsnow]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The most aggressive members imply high surf and maybe some rain for the outter cape and ACK.

That would still be fun to see.. last year I went to hampton to watch the waves as a storm passed by and was in awe

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Couldn't agree more. 

Wildly OT, but this contributes greatly to the MH epidemic that is leading to a higher frequency of mass shootings. It creates cognitve dissonance and internal strife because people are conscious of the fact that they are engaging in behavior that is intrinsically detrimental to their sense of well-being and overall QOL, but they lack the will to stop. Willfully acting in a manner that is incongurent with one's self-esteem fosters a great deal of animosity that when coupled with increased impulsivity and a predilection for a "quick fix" is a real powder keg. Rage directed inward will usually end up coming out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wildly OT, but this contributes greatly to the MH epidemic that is leading to a higher frequency of mass shootings. It creates cognitve dissonance and internal strife because people are conscious of the fact that they are engaging in behavior that is intrinsically detrimental to their sense of well-being and overall QOL, but they lack the will to stop. Willfully acting in a manner that is incongurent with one's self-esteem fosters a great deal of animosity that when coupled with increased impulsivity and a predilection for a "quick fix" is a real powder keg. Rage directed inward will usually end up coming out.

The isolative tendency due to increased screen time at the cost of socialization is another element....its an externality of/opportunity cost for the decision to spend more time on FB, X,Insta, etc. Not to mention an inhibiting factor for cognitive growth and development.

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wildly OT, but this contributes greatly to the MH epidemic that is leading to a higher frequency of mass shootings. It creates cognitve dissonance and internal strife because people are conscious of the fact that they are engaging in behavior that is intrinsically detrimental to their sense of well-being and overall QOL, but they lack the will to stop. Willfully acting in a manner that is incongurent with one's self-esteem fosters a great deal of animosity that when coupled with increased impulsivity and a predilection for a "quick fix" is a real powder keg. Rage directed inward will usually end up coming out.

Yep..and not sure if you've read anything by Jonathan Haidt..but he emphasizes the desperate need for Social Media to be taken out of the lives of the 10-15 yo demo..or they/we are doomed. It's an obvious no for those younger to begin with. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yep..and not sure if you've read anything by Jonathan Haidt..but he emphasizes the desperate need for Social Media to be taken out of the lives of the 10-15 yo demo..or they/we are doomed. It's an obvious no for those younger to begin with. 

I have not, but I agree with him 100%. I don't read enough independently and have been out of school several years now. Once  my kids are older, I will find my way back.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The isolative tendency due to increased screen time at the cost of socialization is another element. Not to mention an inhibiting factor for cognitive growth and development.

I’m no sociologist but agreed …

Ive been railing OTs about this subject matter for years. There is a lot of codified science about the dimming of the intellectual pool, both in higher mental functions as well as the moral and virtuosity aspects of the total cerebral spectrum … do to “blue light” exposure 

Humanity is passing thru a great socio-technological experiment at an evolutionary scale 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m no sociologist but agreed …

Ive been railing OTs about this subject matter for years. There is a lot of codified science about the dimming of the intellectual pool, both in higher mental functions as well as the moral and virtuosity aspects of the total cerebral spectrum … do to “blue light” exposure 

Humanity is passing thru a great socio-technological experiment at an evolutionary scale 

You are well read...that is the only requisite to having an informed opinion.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The isolative tendency due to increased screen time at the cost of socialization is another element....its an externality of/opportunity cost for the decision to spend more time on FB, X,Insta, etc. Not to mention an inhibiting factor for cognitive growth and development.

We need to bring book clubs back where people actually read hardcopy and then discuss.

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I get what you're saying, makes sense. I guess with this, what we also need to throw out there is perspective and quantification. There are many different ways I guess we can quantify the season thus far. 

1) The number of named storms has been a bit underwhelming comparted to history, especially during a period which was thought to be very favorable for the ATL (low shear, developing Nina). 

2) Of the few storms, we had the absolute monster in Beryl - but how much does this skew things so far or is this a sign of what we could be looking at one/if activity ramps up?

3) You're point there in the bolded is something which I think all of us weather enthusiasts like to debate. We talk about this alot in the winter. What makes a winter memorable, is it one massive 2'+ blizzard or is it a bunch of 3-6'' events which add up?   

Yeah—I’m sounding like a tropical stan lol but if we had more NS but they were the typical early season slop, I think we’d hear that the quality of the season has been poor. Also you’d need a ton of those to get to current ACE. I guess it is a matter of perspective but the data is the data too. You still fight climo in JJ and early August unless you’re 2005. I mean ‘05 laps the greatest season of all time in that stat I posted. It’s the anomaly of anomalies. If Beryl and Debby didn’t have dry air plaguing them they could’ve been majors, but in virtually any other season they wouldn’t have developed at all because the conditions would’ve been much more hostile. Especially with Beryl. 

That’s why I do think Beryl was the canary in the coal mine. If Ernesto produces, you’ll have a major in the central Atlantic before Aug 20 after the Cat 5 from Beryl. That speaks to potential far more than having a lot of short lived NS or even non major hurricanes that pop out of a small favorable environment.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 If Beryl and Debby didn’t have dry air plaguing them they could’ve been majors

 

Hmm.

[CoastalWx]

Post from a former co-worker and in NWS. Very knowledgeable.

 

The NHEMI total TC activity is well below normal season-to-date 

(thru 8/12).  18 named storms so far (normal is 24 season-to-date), 

6 hurricanes/typhoons (normal is 12), and 2 major hurricanes/typhoons 

(normal is 6).  Total ACE is only 52% of normal season-to-date.

Yes, the Atlantic has been active, but only in some ways.   Basically, 

Hurricane Beryl is the only anomaly so far and accounts for almost all 

the high numbers for the Atlantic season-to-date (named storm days, 

hurricane days, major hurricane days, and ACE). Not saying Beryl 

was not a major anomaly, but one storm does not reflect the 

entire season or season-to-date in the larger climatology 

picture.

For instance, take the most active Atlantic hurricane season overall, 

2005.  Through 8/12 that season, we already had 8 named storms, 

4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (one strong Cat 4 and a Cat 5).

This blows away (no pun intended!) the 2024 season-to-date.   Since

we have the warmest Atlantic ocean temps on record (~60 yr reliable 

record period), and conditions in the atmosphere are said to be so

favorable, where is this hyperactivity for TCs in the Atlantic??  2005

was a true hyperactive season, not only total, but it started early and

never stopped, w/ active named storms most days July-Oct.

Now, it is still early overall, but a couple things on that. 1) All 

forecasts are going for 20+ named storms in the Atlantic this 

season, and two have 25+ w/ one 33 and 2), none of the global 

models shows any tropical storm or hurricane development in 

the Atlantic the next 10 days, which brings us to 8/22.  We have

5 named storms so far.  Although 15 more named storms after

8/22 has happened before, and will get us to 20 for the season, 

20 or more named storms for the true hyperactive forecasts 

(25+), that's going to be tough. Not saying it can't happen, but 

the Atlantic only has so much room and it actually can get too 

"crowded" w/ storms at times (happened in 2023 and other years).

TCs need room around them to develop and esp. to get intense, 

otherwise, they will inhibit each other's full potential.  So even 

though you can have 4 named storms at once, that tends to be the 

limit based on past very active seasons.  And even in the most 

active seasons, there are cycles where conditions overall wane at 

times for TC development in the entire Atlantic, so it can't be full

throttle to the max all the time in a season (2005 and a few other

seasons going back to 1851 are close).

 

The eastern Pacific is among its slowest, if not slowest start since

reliable satellite records began (1970).  2024 already broke the

record for the latest first named storm in this basin, and Carlotta

was the second latest first hurricane on record in this basin (record

is Aug 24 set in 2003).  The western Pacific is not doing much better

w/ ACE only 33% of normal season-to date.

[Patrick-02540]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The isolative tendency due to increased screen time at the cost of socialization is another element....its an externality of/opportunity cost for the decision to spend more time on FB, X,Insta, etc. Not to mention an inhibiting factor for cognitive growth and development.

Correct.  For two million years, proto-humans and humans have evolved to become extremely social creatures and to require physical interpersonal interaction (with a very keen and developed sense of interpreting facial structure, body language, and tonality of speech).  All of that has been significantly tossed to the side with the sudden and materially remarkable human extrication from the physical social square over the past two decades or so.  To put it in physical rather than psychic terms, it would be akin to suddenly feeding a rabbit animal proteins and fats, rather than its evolutionary required vegetation. The digestive system simply cannot process and adapt to such a sudden change, even over thousands of years.  (Or, for that matter, feeding homo sapiens a plant-based diet.)  We simply don't have the capacity to adjust and adapt to all the complex and different things that our brains bring forth.  And we are at the point where we are facing this conflictedness between intellectual capacity, and the boundaries of human adjustment and acceptance to that. Enter anxiety, depression, and the entire suite of burgeoning mood and behavioral disorders. 

[WxWatcher007]

Don’t really disagree with any of that, but if the standard is 2005 then no season will be close. Nobody would say 1933 wasn’t truly hyperactive and it finished 20/11/6 with three hurricanes and maybe one of those as a major before August 15. 54 ACE. 

I think the SAL and stability issues that have existed for about a half decade now have capped (no pun intended) things to an extent so far, and it still is 5th all time in ACE to date. Beryl is meaningful in that it showed the potential of the season for robust waves to really pop in normally hostile conditions, but yeah, it’s not representative of what the season will be. A lot of track to run still.

[WxWatcher007]

Back to Ernesto, kind of surprising that the EPS are left of the GFS now when the GFS was once furthest west. It’s bouncing between west and east with this model run hitting the maritimes. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We need to bring book clubs back where people actually read hardcopy and then discuss.

And drink!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wildly OT, but this contributes greatly to the MH epidemic that is leading to a higher frequency of mass shootings. It creates cognitve dissonance and internal strife because people are conscious of the fact that they are engaging in behavior that is intrinsically detrimental to their sense of well-being and overall QOL, but they lack the will to stop. Willfully acting in a manner that is incongurent with one's self-esteem fosters a great deal of animosity that when coupled with increased impulsivity and a predilection for a "quick fix" is a real powder keg. Rage directed inward will usually end up coming out.

Mass shootings are a US problem and a direct result of easy access to guns. Societal’s decline as a result of social media, as you say, is global (as is mental health) but somehow someway America is by far numero uno in mass shootings. 
 

A topic for a different day though… 

[Hazey]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Back to Ernesto, kind of surprising that the EPS are left of the GFS now when the GFS was once furthest west. It’s bouncing between west and east with this model run hitting the maritimes. 

GFS with almost a Hurricane Lee track(slightly east). Bad for Nfld.

CMC is pretty meh with some swells and high surf. Minimal impacts

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Back to Ernesto, kind of surprising that the EPS are left of the GFS now when the GFS was once furthest west. It’s bouncing between west and east with this model run hitting the maritimes. 

Can we get a Nunavut landfall?

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

[CoastalWx]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Don’t really disagree with any of that, but if the standard is 2005 then no season will be close. Nobody would say 1933 wasn’t truly hyperactive and it finished 20/11/6 with three hurricanes and maybe one of those as a major before August 15. 54 ACE. 

I think the SAL and stability issues that have existed for about a half decade now have capped (no pun intended) things to an extent so far, and it still is 5th all time in ACE to date. Beryl is meaningful in that it showed the potential of the season for robust waves to really pop in normally hostile conditions, but yeah, it’s not representative of what the season will be. A lot of track to run still.

I think that is the point. It's not "haha it's a bust!"  but more about learning what's causing a slower start then most expected. At least for me I'm interested. I do expect an active Fall, but need an active September to make up ground. 

[WxWatcher007]

36 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

Big time heater there.

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that is the point. It's not "haha it's a bust!"  but more about learning what's causing a slower start then most expected. At least for me I'm interested. I do expect an active Fall, but need an active September to make up ground. 

Yeah—keeping with the track theme, the pace of the race picks up quickly as peak climo speeds up big. 

The other multi-season trend that we’ve seen with the eastern and central MDR is waves struggling there but really exploding when getting to the western Atlantic. We need that to break and have quick development right off the CV islands if we’re going to do 25+ NS I think, but another 3-5 majors could be more doable because of cool neutral ENSO reducing Caribbean shear and the extent of OHC/anomalies in the Gulf and western Atlantic. Far less SAL influence further west. It’s actually pretty wild to see the difference in different sections of the basin. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Correct.  For two million years, proto-humans and humans have evolved to become extremely social creatures and to require physical interpersonal interaction (with a very keen and developed sense of interpreting facial structure, body language, and tonality of speech).  All of that has been significantly tossed to the side with the sudden and materially remarkable human extrication from the physical social square over the past two decades or so.  To put it in physical rather than psychic terms, it would be akin to suddenly feeding a rabbit animal proteins and fats, rather than its evolutionary required vegetation. The digestive system simply cannot process and adapt to such a sudden change, even over thousands of years.  (Or, for that matter, feeding homo sapiens a plant-based diet.)  We simply don't have the capacity to adjust and adapt to all the complex and different things that our brains bring forth.  And we are at the point where we are facing this conflictedness between intellectual capacity, and the boundaries of human adjustment and acceptance to that. Enter anxiety, depression, and the entire suite of burgeoning mood and behavioral disorders. 

I would go further and say that the protohominin leap in intelligence required that for survival.   

Physically, our brains become expensive ( except for Kevin ... ) and hat expense required trading brawn - think of a new born calf in the plains of Africa: within hours, runs as fast as the parents to escape predation. 

Human can never do that ... We are not born 70 .. 80 .. 90% ready for the Darwinian war.  We are helpless.  Thus, our advantage arrived through cooperation among a community's members living in vital recognition of one another - love and appreciation and the broader spectrum of intangible intelligence came along in that era.  This sheltered and allowed our brains the time it takes to mature to adulthood; which in totality also takes much, much longer.   But, long before we ever reach adulthood we are already conceptualizing aspects that no other animal on this planet is capable to doing.  

The requirement of social intelligence was quite likely, much deeper ingrained as an instinctual imperative, one that even psychobabble -sciences I sometimes question whether they 'get it'.  

What the advantages of the 'industrial bubble' (modern tech and 'blue screen' is just a part of the bigger picture) is doing is isolating human beings.  Disconnecting that deeper rooted codependent sense of belonging that always kept the pack vital.

It really is an evolutionary gate ( I believe ...).    We are living in a leap era.  I believe that.  The last 200 years since the Industrial Revolution have been both quantitative and qualitatively transformative, more so than the previous 200,000 years.

200  ... 200,000.  

The human socio-technological experiment.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Big time heater there.

Yeah—keeping with the track theme, the pace of the race picks up quickly as peak climo speeds up big. 

The other multi-season trend that we’ve seen with the eastern and central MDR is waves struggling there but really exploding when getting to the western Atlantic. We need that to break and have quick development right off the CV islands if we’re going to do 25+ NS I think, but another 3-5 majors could be more doable because of cool neutral ENSO reducing Caribbean shear and the extent of OHC/anomalies in the Gulf and western Atlantic. Far less SAL influence further west. It’s actually pretty wild so see the difference in different sections of the basin. 

 

 

Could Ernesto make a landfall in a weird location like Greenland or could he recurve into Iberia?

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Could Ernesto make a landfall in a weird location like Greenland or could he recurve into Iberia?

Nah—anything is long past post tropical by then