2024 - tracking the tropics

[NotSureWeather]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol, “HE” doesn’t even exist yet.  Just a swirl of clouds. 

Bet there is a psychology student somewhere using this forum for their thesis on mental instability.

[Torch Tiger]

over before it started, hate to see it.

[Torch Tiger]

modeling sucks the fun right out of the hobby

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

20 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

modeling sucks the fun right out of the hobby

 

Do you know tyler maher?

[ldub23]

GFS says rare NE hit

[ineedsnow]

Lol GFS 

[ineedsnow]

[Damage In Tolland]

Boo ya!

[CoastalWx]

Not much wind outside the beaches 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like I’m deformed. 30-36”

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

16 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS says rare NE hit

 

Sheeeeeit

 

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS mostly east congrats canada

[ineedsnow]

But the GEFS are west of 12z FWIW

[Damage In Tolland]

Big un 

[klw]

On 8/9/2024 at 1:34 PM, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

JBF (Just Be Fiona) theory

Scottie doesn't know.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GEFS mostly east congrats canada

over for mumbai

[Damage In Tolland]

Here we go!

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here we go!

 

SHEEEEIT

 

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of 
organization in association with a tropical wave located roughly 
midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system during the next few days while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical 
Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to 
middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves 
near or over the Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this system. Then, the system is forecast to move 
generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the 
Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[wxeyeNH]

Here we go.  Days and days and days of watching.  Then Ernie will make the big loop around the Bermuda high and look like he's coming but out then just giving us a night or two of great sunsets.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Here we go.  Days and days and days of watching.  Then Ernie will make the big loop around the Bermuda high and look like he's coming but out then just giving us a night or two of great sunsets.

Does he successfully climb over the wall the orange man built?

[Torch Tiger]

o7

[Torch Tiger]

Canagone?

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

o7

 

 

Over for New Bengaluru

[ineedsnow]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Canagone?

Should I extend my PEI vacation 2 more weeks?

It was actually a great day of winds and tropical showers today.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

In this area of the country you probably have better odds of winning the lottery than getting directly hit by a hurricane in any given year. That's how it seems anyways, I mean considering how we are now at 33 years and counting without a direct hit. Before the 1938 hurricane, 42 years had passed since a hurricane had hit New England, so we could potentially go another decade or longer without a hurricane landfall.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Should I extend my PEI vacation 2 more weeks?

It was actually a great day of winds and tropical showers today.

yeah if already there and knew a 'cane was headed in, I'd extend the vaca.  lol  Personally I'm hoping this system is on the "dud" side; to not upwell waters for the next trackable  

[Diggiebot]

It’s a needle thread for us therefore it’s always a miss until it actually hits. I don’t think a NE Hurricane would be a solid forecast until 2-3 days out. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Back when I wasn't as knowledgeable about climo I always used to assume that New England got more hurricane hits than Atlantic Canada since they are further north and waters are cooler. However, now I realize that since Atlantic Canada sticks out directly in the path of recurves they get hit much more often. The timing of that ridge/trough interaction has to be just right in order for a small land area like New England to get hit. It really is like threading a needle.

[Diggiebot]

56 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Back when I wasn't as knowledgeable about climo I always used to assume that New England got more hurricane hits than Atlantic Canada since they are further north and waters are cooler. However, now I realize that since Atlantic Canada sticks out directly in the path of recurves they get hit much more often. The timing of that ridge/trough interaction has to be just right in order for a small land area like New England to get hit. It really is like threading a needle.

Literally not true. It has happened a lot recently for Atlantic Canada but NE had two cat 3’s in one season. Small sample size. Lots of cat ones and tropical storms.