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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in 
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the 
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of 
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical 
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system 
approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The 
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward 
and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to 
latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
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44 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Meh maybe next time.. we have to get lucky at some point

98L_tracks_12z.png

We have been  lucky for the last 33 years. I get the excitement of tracking tropical here but no major storm since 91 ( and we have a history of CAT 3 storms) and think of the tree growth since then. A strong CAT 1 or greater here will cause significant tree damage and people will be without power for weeks; any many are not prepared for this. Heck after a normal storm people expect power to be back within an hour or two. 
 

Having been through 5-6 storms in FL, most people there have emergency supply kits, and the  state offers 2 tax free weekends to our purchase storm related supplies, and new gas stations are all built with backup generators…So in short we have been lucky.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He gone.

At this early point, Gotta be careful with talk like that Luke…

I agree, Always bet against a hit in SNE for the most part, but modeling is certainly not handling these features correctly at this stage.  

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At this early point, Gotta be careful with talk like that Luke…

I agree, Always bet against a hit in SNE for the most part, but modeling is certainly not handling these features correctly at this stage.  

Our friend hopes for San Diego wx nine months out of the year. Not that there’s anything wrong with that…I guess. :P 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Our friend hopes for San Diego wx nine months out of the year. Not that there’s anything wrong with that…I guess. :P 

Lol..ya I get it.  If we say it’s/he gone as the thing is in its very early formative stages, and it’s 9-10 days away from anything even happening up here, then that’s as bad as wishcasting imo.   
 

I know guys like to stir the pot for Kev and Anthony, and it’s all in fun, but gotta be careful sometimes with blanket statements of certainty.  Big hits are very rare up here as we all understand, but they aren’t non-existent either. So at some point, it’s “gonna happen.”  That we can all bet on. But “When” is the big question. 

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..ya I get it.  If we say it’s/he gone as the thing is in its very early formative stages, and it’s 9-10 days away from anything even happening up here, then that’s as bad as wishcasting imo.   
 

I know guys like to stir the pot for Kev and Anthony, and it’s all in fun, but gotta be careful sometimes with blanket statements of certainty.  Big hits are very rare up here as we all understand, but they aren’t non-existent either. So at some point, it’s “gonna happen.”  That we can all bet on. But “When” is the big question. 

The same ones every threat say he gone she gone they gone. They said it for Dirty Debb and she came 300 miles west of us. They’re just wishcasting canes away .Even with one bearing down on us with warnings and big damage imminent they’d post she gone. This one has a solid d chance of making it back to coast . 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The same ones every threat say he gone she gone they gone. They said it for Dirty Debb and she came 300 miles west of us. They’re just wishcasting canes away .This one had solid d chance of making it back to coast 

I get it Kev…that’s why I said saying “he gone” is as irresponsible as wishcasting. It’s silly.  It’s always low chance in SNE, but that low chance will be realized at some point too Someday. That we know. 

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The pattern suggests that there’s a couple of ways the guidance could shift west. It may still very well go OTS. But if it gets to the Bahamas and guidance is still trying to pop some type of cutoff that’s going to lead to a close U.S. approach. At least. 

I know tropical is an imby thing around here but we also tend to forget about our Atlantic Canada friends. 

Lee (‘23), Fiona (‘22), Larry (‘21), Teddy (‘20), Dorian (‘19) had varying direct impacts on the region with Lee, Fiona, and Teddy coming from patterns that initially looked like an easy recurve. 

Tbh @Hazey and Atlantic Canada should be watching as closely as anyone. 

To0smwe.png
 

FHTtpNZ.png

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