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2024 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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All humor and ... collective fetish for humiliating Kevin aside,  the table appears setting for an  - to me - RI of some sort in about 30+hrs.   By then the zygote TD will have moved bodily away from its limiting interaction with the land mass of Cuba, and over the SE Gulf o/Mex.

That region host the famed "loop current,"  a surface to very deep vortex column that contains some of the highest integrated OHC on the planent, above which the sfc to air coupled environment is like levitating over a pan of simmering water.   

That in and of itself isn't enough but in the case of "Debra" the modeled deep layer mass fields look to me like they're supremely constructed.  There's fractals in the area where there is effectively 0 shear, amid a region where if there is any it's well below any threshold that would impede the development of vertically sustaining convective structures.   Lot of long words for a system that might become photogenic, and with very low shear and u/a diffluent radial geometry and all the OHE ... doing so at a rather accelerated pace ...heh.   I've read a recent paper about RI increased frequency increasing around the world, well...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2

This could become a bomb concern and doing so prior to impacting the NE Gulf.    I might be missing something - I am basing it on the coarser data sourcing of the web, and not some super inference machinery down at TPC.  But looking at the baser theoretical parameters, I'd be a little more than just bun leery if I owned property anywhere between Pensacola and St Pete. 

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There's countless other references to this concern by simple Googling too.. I just think this Debra deal is about as pretty a candidate for winning that beauty pageant as any

- again, just based on cursory eval of the surrounding environmental destiny.

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Agree with Tip—I think the limiting factor is time over water and lack of inner core. It’s still not quite organized enough for me to think it immediately takes off after crossing Cuba. 

If we wanted more wind impacts up here it can’t be rotting over CAE before getting turned northward. It needs to scrape Wilmington to the OBX and get some jet streak assistance as it rolls north. 

The interesting thing is that regardless the track south the models continue to show it being a potentially prolific rainmaker much further north. If anything that signal has gotten stronger and geographically more expansive.
8sFDuWZ.png

 

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro has been crap with this storm though 

Yes. It has been playing catch up for days, but its solution is viable too if this system moves a bit faster. Even still—it’s wet along the south coast. 

 

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6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yes ... sarcasm is vastly too nuanced and complex - I know...

lol

Unfortunately most of your ànalysis of the weather is over my head and likely most other weather enthusiasts, excepting of course other mets.  Can't you please share your knowledge in language most can understand?

 

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