Torch Tiger Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Of course you’ll be disappointed Hopefully it does the weak/inland route and not east. Let's get some crushing rains! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 St. Johnsbury=St. Gonesbury! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why? Then it’s a 1015mb BS low. It would be over land for a thousand miles. Want wind. If it comes north from offshore Carolina’s. Rain is boring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Want wind. If it comes north from offshore Carolina’s. Rain is boring They’ll be no wind if this goes west. Too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 The path this storm is going to take doesn’t seem very conducive to anything beyond big time rains for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: The path this storm is going to take doesn’t seem very conducive to anything beyond big time rains for most areas. ya big time rains and huge flooding is the concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: ya big time rains and huge flooding is the concern The one effin' thing I don't want. Useless... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 All humor and ... collective fetish for humiliating Kevin aside, the table appears setting for an - to me - RI of some sort in about 30+hrs. By then the zygote TD will have moved bodily away from its limiting interaction with the land mass of Cuba, and over the SE Gulf o/Mex. That region host the famed "loop current," a surface to very deep vortex column that contains some of the highest integrated OHC on the planent, above which the sfc to air coupled environment is like levitating over a pan of simmering water. That in and of itself isn't enough but in the case of "Debra" the modeled deep layer mass fields look to me like they're supremely constructed. There's fractals in the area where there is effectively 0 shear, amid a region where if there is any it's well below any threshold that would impede the development of vertically sustaining convective structures. Lot of long words for a system that might become photogenic, and with very low shear and u/a diffluent radial geometry and all the OHE ... doing so at a rather accelerated pace ...heh. I've read a recent paper about RI increased frequency increasing around the world, well... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2 This could become a bomb concern and doing so prior to impacting the NE Gulf. I might be missing something - I am basing it on the coarser data sourcing of the web, and not some super inference machinery down at TPC. But looking at the baser theoretical parameters, I'd be a little more than just bun leery if I owned property anywhere between Pensacola and St Pete. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 There's countless other references to this concern by simple Googling too.. I just think this Debra deal is about as pretty a candidate for winning that beauty pageant as any - again, just based on cursory eval of the surrounding environmental destiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I love how whenever I post anything everyone flees the given thread. 'Recently Browsing' shrinks all the way down to just 3 or 4 members ... probably off taking shits anyway. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 We flood on Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Agree with Tip—I think the limiting factor is time over water and lack of inner core. It’s still not quite organized enough for me to think it immediately takes off after crossing Cuba. If we wanted more wind impacts up here it can’t be rotting over CAE before getting turned northward. It needs to scrape Wilmington to the OBX and get some jet streak assistance as it rolls north. The interesting thing is that regardless the track south the models continue to show it being a potentially prolific rainmaker much further north. If anything that signal has gotten stronger and geographically more expansive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 GFS is a little wet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 minute ago, dendrite said: GFS is a little wet Hey sure, why not? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 That would be a problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Not the 8-10" we are usually hoping for in SNE. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Not the 8-10" we are usually hoping for in SNE. #NewNormal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Wow. Shades of hurricane Diane from the ‘50’s as modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 20 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Wow. Shades of hurricane Diane from the ‘50’s as modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Let's goooo! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 23 minutes ago, kdxken said: That's a 12-day gfs qpf map? Not comparable to the 5-day Diane total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 12z Euro has it south of SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 ukie through hr168 was 6 to 10 west of the river.. 4 to 8 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro has it south of SNE Very different from the other guidance. South coast gets soaked in the PRE, but yes very south non-event for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Very different from the other guidance. South coast gets soaked in the PRE, but yes very south non-event for most. Euro has been crap with this storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Euro has been crap with this storm though Yes. It has been playing catch up for days, but its solution is viable too if this system moves a bit faster. Even still—it’s wet along the south coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ukie through hr168 was 6 to 10 west of the river.. 4 to 8 east A solid SECS. IF temps in the DGZ looked better , we could pump up those numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 12z EPS with a mean of 3 to 5 in SNE.. must be some good members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: yes ... sarcasm is vastly too nuanced and complex - I know... lol Unfortunately most of your ànalysis of the weather is over my head and likely most other weather enthusiasts, excepting of course other mets. Can't you please share your knowledge in language most can understand? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 GGEM drops 3-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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