WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 That’d be one hell of a rain event for NE verbatim. Ridge/trough combo gets it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Pretty big changes on the GFS, which has been leading the way significantly imo. Still an eternity to go in tropical time and a lot to sort out in the steering pattern specifics, but this is increasingly interesting. Note the ridge/trough in the last three runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’d be one hell of a rain event for NE verbatim. Ridge/trough combo gets it done. Don't you think it would be moving a little bit too fast to drop those totals? That's Irene type rains for W MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Don't you think it would be moving a little bit too fast to drop those totals? That's Irene type rains for W MA. most is from the pre before the storm even gets here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 0z ukie is 5 to 8 the next 6 days and that's before any leftovers would even get here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z ukie is 5 to 8 the next 6 days and that's before any leftovers would even get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, MJO812 said: More likely outcome. This goes east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: More likely outcome. This goes east. That's before the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Don't you think it would be moving a little bit too fast to drop those totals? That's Irene type rains for W MA. That solution is unlikely just by virtue of it being a long range (by tropical standards) op run, but you can never count out tropical systems producing prolific rain totals within any 24 hour period, especially if terrain or trough enhancement is possible. Just to illustrate though.. As @ineedsnow notes, there’s the PRE with pretty hellacious convergence and enhancement. Followed up by the event itself The latest Euro abandons its Tennessee odyssey for now and brings it northeast, but aside from a brief heavy rain signal in SNE and Mid-Atlantic it’s OTS before a significant rain event for Atlantic Canada. It’s easy to dismiss these systems around here because it takes a very specific set of circumstances to get meaningful tropical around here, but what makes this increasingly interesting to me at least is 1) the rain signal—this looks like a good PRE candidate even if it stays offshore, and 2) guidance wants to tuck this into the coast—yeah troughs can easily kick these, but the conditions that allow a tropical system to hug the coast northeast also create a larger than climo window for impacts further north. Not always or even often enough to hit (Matthew, Dorian) given inherently hostile climo any time of year, but it seems that once future Debbie misses the initial trough and gets pushed back toward the coast by the ridge and northward with the second trough, there’s a scenario in there where a threat could materialize. At this range I’d still hedge toward a climo kick OTS, but it’s worth a closer eye. This is kind of the scenario I envisioned a few weeks ago for August chances around here. Finally, this is really an eternity away but I was looking at the broader Atlantic environment to do a post about the coming weeks, and noticed that the environment isn’t necessarily a quickly fall apart type for this, especially depending on trough interaction and forward speed. A lot more than you asked for lol but I love this stuff. https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/research/galarneau_etal_2010_mwr.pdf 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Tuesday through Friday Trending cooler and toward some more unsettled weather next week as a broad cyclonic flow develops over east CONUS/Canada. Ensemble guidances suggests a wet period Tuesday night through Wednesday with a cold front potentially pushing through The Northeast. Confidence drops off considerably Wednesday and beyond as global models are beginning to come into agreement on a potential tropical cyclone moving up the east coast mid to late week. The potential development and track of this system could affect the forecast in southern New England later next week. Check the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from The National Hurricane Center for more details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Seems pretty slow moving out of the starting gate. Yet still not reaching H status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: More likely outcome. This goes east. that was a 24hr qpf map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I guess potential excitement if you like rain? Even that isn’t at a guarantee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, CoastalWx said: I guess potential excitement if you like rain? Even that isn’t at a guarantee. Of course we track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Of course we track Of course you’ll be disappointed 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Of course you’ll be disappointed For rain ? It's a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, MJO812 said: For rain ? It's a guarantee. For everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For everything So you’re not locking it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 19 hours ago, NotSureWeather said: Feel like this is being dismissed a bit too early. It has stopped the trend west. Models seem a bit lost, but radar has looked okay for the past day or so. Once this gets off land the picture will be clearer. Still though, it looks decent considering the conditions. Seems to be somewhat symmetrical and decent outflow. It just needs an actual defined center lol. Feel like this is being considered too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I was born in 90. I was 1 for Bob. Since then the best storm for eastern SNE was the no name storm in October a couple years ago. Forgive me for never being excited about tropical here until 1 day to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I was born in 90. I was 1 for Bob. Since then the best storm for eastern SNE was the no name storm in October a couple years ago. Forgive me for never being excited about tropical here until 1 day to go. I remember all the way back to Gloria ... that one, for some reason, you just new when it was some 5 days away that it was coming up here. I don't know how. I mean the modeling tech underneath the newly arriving weather graphic technology was primitive compared to pita flop ( wait 'till QC cores come online), operating in parallel processing at dizzying computational speeds, all having access to much denser initialization data or interpolation methods ... Despite the comparatively HUGE learning disability of that yester-ear, it was coming. I have not sensed anything like that with the tropics since. I have countless times with snow events - just none of those since 2015 lol. In fact, I think we're behind ( statistically ) on 'dramatic event climatology'? I feel like VT's floods are about it ... but that's sort of not SNE, even though we share the same sforum bandwidth. Maybe the Monson tornado... but I sorta don't count town scaled anomalies... I mean real pan dimensional regional concerns... Doesn't even have to be state of em regional juggernaut headlines, but give us a 90 percenter big anything? It's been rather docile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Notice how the precip totals fall off right over Ray's place in the Winter Wonderland known as Methuen...it's sort of like a preseason game to prepare for the upcoming winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Ideally we want this going west of us . Like an Isaias type path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ideally we want this going west of us . Like an Isaias type path Well ... thankfully for you, then, off all possibilities, that's the lowest. There's a much better chance that this will smear out S of here - once the models inevitably correct for amplitude bias in that range, overall. I'd even venture there's a better chance for this thing coming on board and rotting in the TV before getting west of CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... thankfully for you, then, off all possibilities, that's the lowest. There's a much better chance that this will smear out S of here - once the models inevitably correct for amplitude bias in that range, overall. I'd even venture there's a better chance for this thing coming on board and rotting in the TV before getting west of CT. We don’t get you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We don’t get you yes ... sarcasm is vastly too nuanced and complex - I know... lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ideally we want this going west of us . Like an Isaias type path Why? Then it’s a 1015mb BS low. It would be over land for a thousand miles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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