kdxken Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: we 18z GFS Lock it in! Although we got to get the pressure lower. Only in 977 at landfall. Now that we know where it's going we can work on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Need to flex that W ATL ridge even more. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 that was close to being fun for all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not a good week for vacation if holds unfortunately Are you on the Cape next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 LFG. Unlikely, but we take the eye candy. That ridge looked better and critically, that trough was deeper. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Are you on the Cape next week? Scooter is I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Are you on the Cape next week? No Maui was our big vaca this summer. Got back last Thursday. Scoots is in the Cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No Maui was our big vaca this summer. Got back last Thursday. Scoots is in the Cape Ah gotcha. Fair trade Maui for Cape Cod, ha. I’d punt an entire week of beach weather on the Cape to be there for a solution like that 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Ah gotcha. Fair trade Maui for Cape Cod, ha. I’d punt an entire week of beach weather on the Cape to be there for a solution like that 18z GFS. I think we all are wishing and hoping that happens but corrected to CTRV moving due north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022036 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However, the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 25 kt. The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward, and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas receive the strongest impacts. There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic after 72 h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 60-70 meh. I’m hoping it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think we all are wishing and hoping that happens but corrected to CTRV moving due north It's a long shot for a scrape or a weakened TD/TS landfall, and a near impossible for a hurricane to landfall in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: It's a long shot for a scrape or a weakened TD/TS landfall, and a near impossible for a hurricane to landfall in SNE. Don't be a Debbie Downer. This has '38 written all over it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: It's a long shot for a scrape or a weakened TD/TS landfall, and a near impossible for a hurricane to landfall in SNE. But let’s put RI under water? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 I'll be in Atlantic Canada so will keep one eye open for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'll be in Atlantic Canada so will keep one eye open for this. Hell no, you're not stealing our wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 13 minutes ago, kdxken said: Don't be a Debbie Downer. This has '38 written all over it. Never say never since the "storm" hasn't developed yet. The size and scope of the storm will have an impact on the U/A surrounding it and models won't near see those deets for several days. However yes, '38 headed in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: But let’s put RI under water? Yeah I'm game But for TC season, and you will agree, it's mostly about the wind. Little wind impacts (Floyd, Bertha et al) and it's a snoozer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah I'm game But for TC season, and you will agree, it's mostly about the wind. Little wind impacts (Floyd, Bertha et al) and it's a snoozer Maybe if wind is just your thing then yeah, sure, but flooding rains are a real deal with these and are just as impactful if not more devastating than the winds for NE TC. I know you know all of this but this has much more of a chance to be a flooding disaster than wind impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Maybe if wind is just your thing then yeah, sure, but flooding rains are a real deal with these and are just as impactful if not more devastating than the winds for NE TC. I know you know all of this but this has much more of a chance to be a flooding disaster than wind impacts Yup yup, 1955?! Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 '38 vs. Connie/Diane, no question what a real weenie would choose Unless you have some flood obsession/fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: Need to flex that W ATL ridge even more. Two sensitivities… One is what you just said …the other one is that thing looks like it’s too robustly developing that close to land. maybe one but as of now I’m having trouble finding an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Still involving scenario though I mean, euro doesn’t even bring that thing up the coast. The longer range hemisphere looks like it wants to try and flip sort of a negative PNAP. Euro was trying to initiate that transition before it can even come north and that traps it down there underneath the evolving WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: '38 vs. Connie/Diane, no question what a real weenie would choose Unless you have some flood obsession/fetish One of my dads first memories was of Connie/Diane. He was living in Naugatuck, CT and his house was at the top of a hill so it didn't get flooded. He said that there were helicopters airlifting people off of their homes and he could see it from up on the hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 flooding disaster on the 0z Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 55 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: flooding disaster on the 0z Icon Savannah to Charleston drowning on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Savannah to Charleston drowning on that run. GFS with crazy rains up here.. pre then the leftovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Just now, ineedsnow said: GFS with crazy rains up here.. pre then the leftovers We flood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: We flood this would be nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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