2024 - tracking the tropics

[ineedsnow]

We watch 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/1/2024 at 4:19 PM, ineedsnow said:

We watch 

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It's gone.

GFS not scrapes western FL and meanders off the SE coast. The flow makes it impossible for SNE. 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah slow and meandering is not the way to get good tropical up here. Now if that ridge were flexing with the storm off the SE and that trough at D7 were more shallow or better yet wanted to cutoff in the lakes, then it’d be more interesting up here. 

The most interesting realistic thing for SNE right now is whether this can produce a PRE. 
 

[ineedsnow]

  On 8/1/2024 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's gone.

GFS not scrapes western FL and meanders off the SE coast. The flow makes it impossible for SNE. 

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The flow can change in a weeks time

[Cyclone-68]

I’ll probably get weenied but any chance the flow 8 days from now changes?

 

edit: thanks ineedsnow 

[Chrisrotary12]

8 days from now there could also not be a storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/1/2024 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's gone.

GFS not scrapes western FL and meanders off the SE coast. The flow makes it impossible for SNE. 

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Ineedsnow is like the reincarnation of James.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/1/2024 at 6:16 PM, ineedsnow said:

The flow can change in a weeks time

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If it strikes us, it will have already moved inland over the southeast. There is no scenario at play where this thing gets pulled quickly to the north just off of the coast.

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/1/2024 at 6:16 PM, ineedsnow said:

The flow can change in a weeks time

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It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. 
You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/1/2024 at 6:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. 
You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. 

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Exactly.

[WxWatcher007]

 

Good reference point when looking at 500h

[Torch Tiger]

  On 8/1/2024 at 6:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. 
You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. 

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 Most do, like the smeared h5 dataset shows a large negative anomaly there. But Bob/Carol did not.

[Cyclone-68]

I’m reading a magazine from August 1954. Coincidence?

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/1/2024 at 8:18 PM, Torch Tiger said:

 Most do, like the smeared h5 dataset shows a large negative anomaly there. But Bob/Carol did not.

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Bob had an initial s/w trough lure it towards HSE, but then moved out. However a bowling ball was diving into the Midwest on the 18-19th and that allowed Bob to move N then NNE over us. Still the same idea pretty much.

[Torch Tiger]

  On 8/1/2024 at 9:18 PM, CoastalWx said:

Bob had an initial s/w trough lure it towards HSE, but then moved out. However a bowling ball was diving into the Midwest on the 18-19th and that allowed Bob to move N then NNE over us. Still the same idea pretty much.

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wasn't a deep trough

[Damage In Tolland]

Interesting eps member 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/1/2024 at 9:28 PM, Torch Tiger said:

wasn't a deep trough

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Pretty deep imo for August. The point is, ain’t happening with that 500 look.

[MJO812]

  On 8/1/2024 at 11:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Pretty deep imo for August. The point is, ain’t happening with that 500 look.

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We track

[Torch Tiger]

https://texmex.mit.edu/ftp/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/wu95a.pdf

this is always a great read, to nerd out to, especially the results/general findings... on Bob 

[kdxken]

  On 8/1/2024 at 11:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Pretty deep imo for August. The point is, ain’t happening with that 500 look.

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Figured you'd take a stroll over to the tropical thread and piss on their Cheerios?

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/2/2024 at 12:14 AM, kdxken said:

Figured you'd take a stroll over to the tropical thread and piss on their Cheerios?

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Why not? It’s fun.

[Cyclone-68]

70th anniversary of Carol this month..Kind of ridiculous that except for Bob hitting parts of the Cape, Boston proper has had zilch since then 

[FXWX]

  On 8/1/2024 at 6:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

It won't. Pretty uniform that the westerlies through at least 8/9 keep it south. 
You all need to remember that you need a deep trough in the Ohio Valley to bring anything north. We have nothing even close to it. Your best bet is some leftover rain and hangover breathe type gusts from 1015 MB low 10-14 days from now. 

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While many don't agree, SNE threats or hits are very easy to see coming given the very limited upper pattern that allows it to happen.  As you state, it isn't happening without a deep Ohio Valley trough.  Trying to thread the needle with other upper-level setups is always a lost cause.   Blocking high off to the east/northeast is helpful, but the OH Valley trough is always the main driver.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 8/2/2024 at 3:01 AM, FXWX said:

While many don't agree, SNE threats or hits are very easy to see coming given the very limited upper pattern that allows it to happen.  As you state, it isn't happening without a deep Ohio Valley trough.  Trying to thread the needle with other upper-level setups is always a lost cause.   Blocking high off to the east/northeast is helpful, but the OH Valley trough is always the main driver.

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Totally agree—you can almost always see the threat from range, or at least get a sense that it could trend that way. Isaias is a good example. Henri probably a counter example but fairly quickly I think we could see it was worth watching. 

I do think the right kind of ridge could theoretically bring some sort of eastern NE tropical threat without much of a classic Midwest trough, but that’d be like threading multiple needles.

[CoastalWx]

Pretty much the only impacts modeled. Maybe some rain from frontal interaction. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wet week coming 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/2/2024 at 10:47 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Wet week coming 

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Let’s hope not

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 8/2/2024 at 11:13 AM, CoastalWx said:

Let’s hope not

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Seems like could be headed that way . Canes do things to patterns . Ensembles and ops are soakers 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/2/2024 at 12:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like could be headed that way . Canes do things to patterns . Ensembles and ops are soakers 

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Would be cool and wet. Blah. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/2/2024 at 12:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

Would be cool and wet. Blah. 

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I will take that over this.