ineedsnow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Structure still intact and very strong. Less time over land now and more over GOM. Rapid intensification seems likely with perfect conditions I think Beryl strengthens quick once back over water.. not much from stopping it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I think Beryl strengthens quick once back over water.. not much from stopping it If Texas LF biggest threat will be flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If Texas LF biggest threat will be flooding. I think Beryl could really get cranking once it gets in the Gulf surge, wind and rain in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I think Beryl could really get cranking once it gets in the Gulf surge, wind and rain in my opinion Yeah, I’m not a tropics guy so I don’t know how much shear or dry air it will be coming up against as it moves Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, I’m not a tropics guy so I don’t know how much shear or dry air it will be coming up against as it moves Northwest. not a ton of shear .. there is some dry air but not sure it impacts much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 12z Euro is a huge trend north and crushes the Texas coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro is a huge trend north and crushes the Texas coast And then brings floods up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Latest (5 PM) forecast has Beryl as a high-end Cat-1 at landfall, as it will take a number of hours for the circulation to regather. If the easterly trend continues, Beryl will have more hours of favorable conditions before landfall and could intensify, but I'd put its top end as a solid Cat-2. (Hope I'm not too optimistic.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Looks like it strengthens a bit and its more north than what was modeled a couple days ago. Gulf should be warm for fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Euro got Beryl paying us a visitSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 noticed SST's 85-92 already E coast of Florida, and still a ways from peak SST/OHC. It's hard to imagine FL not getting at least one minimal cane hit this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 On 7/7/2024 at 2:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just gonna post my whole Final stab at this since there isn't much traffic at this hour....make sit easy for you guys to scan my dribble. Hopefully some compelling material. Final Call for Hurricane Beryl's Monday AM Strike on Texas Coast Confidence in Track & Even Intensity Increased Current Status: Currently as of 2:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Beryl is centered approximately 275 miles SE of Corpus Christ, Texas and has slowed slightly while veering more towards the NW at 13 MPH. Beryl remains rather disorganized with maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 995 MB. However, it is important to note that this pressure is down from a peak of 1001 MB when the system exited the northern coast of the Yucatan early this morning, which means that some slow organization has been occurring during Saturday as anticipated. Track Forecast Rationale: The general forecast philosophy from First Call issued on Friday night is relatively unchanged, as the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that guidance was significantly too far to the southwest and would adjust significantly to the northeast with a faster recurve has proven correct. There is now a much stronger consensus on the future track of Beryl. In fact, there has been such an aggressive move in the consensus that the Final Eastern Mass Weather forecast track will even need to be adjusted slightly further up the Texas Coast from a First Call in the vicinity of a south Padre Island, TX landfall. These are relatively minor cosmetic changes have to do with the degree of trough interaction in the grand scheme of things, but are of course crucial for those living along the Texas coast. In addition to a slightly faster recurve and turn to the north and eventually northeast, one potential ramification of Beryl's interaction with trough actually has more to do with its ultimate intensity at the time of landfall. Intensity Forecast Rationale: Despite a round of intensification late Thursday and Thursday evening, the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that Beryl would begin a more concerted round of weakening due to an increase in wind shear prior to landfall near Cozumel early Friday proved correct. And while the official landfall intensity reflected 110 MPH max sustained winds (975 MB minimum central pressure), the early returns from reports around the area is that they were likely even less. Beryl has since weakened to a tropical storm with 60 MPH sustained winds as anticipated and has only slowly reorganized during the day on Saturday, which was also part of the forecast due to a badly disrupted core. This is due to both a combination of decreasing southern shear around the western periphery of the departing ridge to the system's west. And a drier air that continues being entrained into the redeveloping core of Beryl. However, as the system moves to the northwest and the ridge in the opposite direction, further away to the east, shear will continue to decrease. This will give way to light diffluent flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere in advance of the approaching trough that will begin to augment poleward outflow Simultaneously, drier air will begin being worked out away from the rapidly evolving core as Sunday morning progresses. It is at this point that Beryl will also begin traversing even warmer sea surface temperatures by midday Sunday en route to the Texas coast. Although the speed of movement is in the process of slowing somewhat, it should be enough to promote a great deal of upwelling, especially considering that Beryl will not be a particularly intense cyclone. Regardless, TCHP is certainly supportive of at least a minimal hurricane on approach to the coast. Given what will evolve into a nearly ideal environment for intensification during the final 12-18 hours prior to landfall, Beryl should be a healthy and rapidly intensifying hurricane when it makes landfall around 6 AM on Monday morning. The only saving grace for Texas in terms of a potential major hurricane strike will be time. Final Call: While the official forecast landfall intensity is 95 MPH and reflective of a category one hurricane, it would not be at all suprising for damage to be consistent with a category two hurricane given that the system will be intensifying and perhaps rapidly so at landfall. This is because intensifying systems often more proficientlly mix higher winds gusts down to the surface. First Call: Issued Thursday 7/4 @ 11 PM: On 7/7/2024 at 2:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Slight changes from Thursday night....I adjusted locale slightly NE from S Padre Island to Matagorda and held intensity at 95 MPH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty satisfied with my call...I think being an hour too slow with landfall at Matagorda cost me that 15 MPH between forecast landfall intensity and actual. Hurricane Beryl Well Forecast Overall Landfall Locale Perfectly Predicted While Intensity Slightly Overestimated The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Beryl was for a landfall in Matagorda, TX at approximately 6 AM EDT Monday as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 95 MPH. Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, TX at 5 AM EDT as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 979 MB. Obviously the forecast landfall location was perfect, as it made landfall at Matagorda one hour ahead of schedule. However, the landfall intensity left a bit to be desired, as it ended up being too aggressive at 95 MPH maximum sustained winds as opposed to the landfall intensity of 80 MPH. This is due to the fact that it simply did not have quite as much time to work the dry air out of the circulation as anticipated. Thus while the general forecast philosophy that Beryl would remain a minimal hurricane due to this environmental limitation was correct overall, the fact that it moved slightly faster than anticipated likely made the difference between the 80 and 95 MPH landfall intensity respectively since it had begun intensifying rapidly at landfall. Timing is everything with a rapidly intensifying system- Final Grade: A- 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Little Lemon off the southeast coast. 10% probs at 5 days... BUT this thing--whatever comes of it-- is headed to our region by this weekend... so we track... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Little Lemon off the southeast coast. 10% probs at 5 days... BUT this thing--whatever comes of it-- is headed to our region by this weekend... so we track... Might get some good moisture in the region. Time and shear are the biggest inhibitors of this one. It’s getting blasted to hell currently by shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 On 7/10/2024 at 12:08 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Might get some good moisture in the region. Time and shear are the biggest inhibitors of this one. It’s getting blasted to hell currently by shear. What it will do is promote more dreadful humidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 There isn't anything to watch with that unless you have a rain fetish. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: There isn't anything to watch with that unless you have a rain fetish. .77” at home this month. Crabgrass has moved in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Flaccid tropics for a couple of weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Gonna need a few Hugo like systems to get back on track for that uber-ACE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gonna need a few Hugo like systems to get back on track for that uber-ACE. I'm still not sold on a huge ACE season. Probably solidly AN, but too many variables can surface to dampen the necessary long-trackers. Now watch a 25-day cane with zero landfalls traverse the Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 21 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I'm still not sold on a huge ACE season. Probably solidly AN, but too many variables can surface to dampen the necessary long-trackers. Now watch a 25-day cane with zero landfalls traverse the Atlantic Its always reasonable to question a historic outcome in any regard, except DM warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Need SAL to decrease and more favorable MJO passing. Probably after 8/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gonna need a few Hugo like systems to get back on track for that uber-ACE. One of the longest to retain power after landfall. It went E-T, curved thru the OV then swept thru Maine west-to-east, flattening about 1,000 cords of nice residual stands at Bigelow, south from Flagstaff Lake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 19 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: I'm still not sold on a huge ACE season. Probably solidly AN, but too many variables can surface to dampen the necessary long-trackers. Now watch a 25-day cane with zero landfalls traverse the Atlantic It’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 Might be earlier than 8/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 Yeah, I’d expect another NS that first week of August I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 I texted Ventrice, he said it's coming lol. Second week of August more favorable MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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