mcglups Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 A new year and chatter to expand the scale. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2308901121 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 It’s phantom season baby! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 21 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: It’s phantom season baby! hopefully we can actually get something this year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: hopefully we can actually get something this year! Good chance 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Since it's quiet in here... https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season Quote NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges. The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 CSU Forecasthttps://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04-pressrelease.pdf Quote Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast. The team cites record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes this year. When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Looks like the season is picking up - 95L may become the strongest MDR/Ecarib hurricane since 2005. Keeping a wary eye on it, ridging will likely push it due west but it it strengthens earlier than forecast it might find a weakness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 On 6/26/2024 at 8:17 PM, tiger_deF said: Looks like the season is picking up - 95L may become the strongest MDR/Ecarib hurricane since 2005. Keeping a wary eye on it, ridging will likely push it due west but it it strengthens earlier than forecast it might find a weakness. 2017 would like a word with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Put together some quick, early thoughts. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/hurricane-beryl-to-devastate-south.html I think the southern half of the GEFS suite is probably out to lunch.....can see a Gilbert type scenario, but probably not further south than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Here we go 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Damn sexy storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Incredible given it's 7/1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Incredible given it's 7/1. I think we're going to see quite a few this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I think we're going to see quite a few this year. I went 20/11/6 and that was below AMWX and CSU consensus, iirc. Which is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 CAT 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 3 hours ago, metagraphica said: CAT 5 What a nuke 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Good thing it's in the middle of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 22 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: Good thing it's in the middle of nowhere Today. Jamaica is in the path of a possible direct hit tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Pretty interesting. Beryl is a clear outlier for this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 10 hours ago, metagraphica said: CAT 5 Boy that is a perfect "eye" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Last update prior to a potential First Call on Friday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/devastating-hurricane-beryl-poised-to.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Still quite unsure whether I will make the trip down to Texas. A lot of track and intensity uncertainty at relative short range given the angle of approach. Currently thinking this does end up a little stronger and further north, but we need to see what the structure looks like after the Yucatan. Currently looking at somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Probably need a little more time to narrow that zone. @40/70 Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is my First crack at Beryl....will update late Saturday night or Sunday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/hurricane-beryl-moves-away-from-jamaica.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 6z gfs has a south Texas hit. Further north than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Should make LF about mid TX coast. It keeps coming north . Cat 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should make LF about mid TX coast. It keeps coming north . Cat 3 Don't know if it'll make it back to Cat 3...but mid coast definitely looks good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 10 minutes ago, metagraphica said: Don't know if it'll make it back to Cat 3...but mid coast definitely looks good. Structure still intact and very strong. Less time over land now and more over GOM. Rapid intensification seems likely with perfect conditions 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now