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February Banter 2024


George BM
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1 hour ago, vastateofmind said:

Trees and daffodils/crocuses have been hammer-down around here for the past two weeks, but the biggest tell was the huge chorus of peepers singing last evening in the wetlands surrounding our neighborhood.

Peeper chorus last night here, too. If it happened earlier I missed it.

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35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

She told me she’s out as of an incident in late January 

That's a shame. She was a regular the entire time I've been here. Let's try to be nicer to each other. There's lots of weird and interesting people here. Let's just let people be weird. I saw a dude dressed like a fox in Walmart last week. I just barked like a dog at him. I suddenly identified as a dog. Shit was fun. I'm not gonna lie lol

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14 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That's a shame. She was a regular the entire time I've been here. Let's try to be nicer to each other. There's lots of weird and interesting people here. Let's just let people be weird. I saw a dude dressed like a fox in Walmart last week. I just barked like a dog at him. I suddenly identified as a dog. Shit was fun. I'm not gonna lie lol

A lot of Cyberbullying going on in here.  A lot of people like to hide behind the computer

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Its unhealthy for mods to embrace their mod role too seriously. Been there done that on a sports board - just walk away. People seem to have lost their minds more than ever in my lifetime - and its not just pecker heads pecking away on a keyboard anonymously. Just like our beloved climate - we are witnessing big changes across the board.

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On 2/27/2024 at 9:54 AM, North Balti Zen said:

Getting true blocking way too late to help and making spring relatively cold and wettish up our way has been a bit of a recurring theme the last ten years or so. Enough of a recurring event now that I idly wonder if it is tied to the general change occurring with our weather patterns. 

I think its made worse by perception bias...because winter is so much warmer than "normal" lately...I think there is just this expectation it will get warmer as we head into early spring...but it doesn't necessarily work that way since the water which is a big part of why its so warm in winter is cooling by then due to the lag effect in water temps.  So often when we get a very warm Feb-mid March...late March and early April might not really end up much warmer and that "feels wrong".  

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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think its made worse by perception bias...because winter is so much warmer than "normal" lately...I think there is just this expectation it will get warmer as we head into early spring...but it doesn't necessarily work that way since the water which is a big part of why its so warm in winter is cooling by then due to the lag effect in water temps.  So often when we get a very warm Feb-mid March...late March and early April might not really end up much warmer and that "feels wrong".  

So basically we have fall for 7 months now. I'm glad I got one week of winter lol

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I think its made worse by perception bias...because winter is so much warmer than "normal" lately...I think there is just this expectation it will get warmer as we head into early spring...but it doesn't necessarily work that way since the water which is a big part of why its so warm in winter is cooling by then due to the lag effect in water temps.  So often when we get a very warm Feb-mid March...late March and early April might not really end up much warmer and that "feels wrong".  

Good observation - altho I think I am not off on the late arrival of legit blocking - that has been a recurring theme for years and years now. Pretty good recall of "where was this blocking ___ weeks ago posts" over and over again over the last eight or so years...

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29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Good observation - altho I think I am not off on the late arrival of legit blocking - that has been a recurring theme for years and years now. Pretty good recall of "where was this blocking ___ weeks ago posts" over and over again over the last eight or so years...

It does seem that way...but I just pulled up the mean h5 pattern from the last 5 winters and only once did we actually get a strong blocking regime that lead to a trough over us for early Spring.  I think we joke about it happening more than it actually does.  

March 20-Apr 15 the last 5 winters

2023

Spring2023.gif.e5c47680b0b77950f3ca570e9da01a76.gif

2022

Spring2022.gif.92f285174bb9d33321f7620ab7b899b8.gif

2021

Spring2021.gif.51ea5779471efb696d8e0fec3e9e60b8.gif

2020

Spring2020.gif.9247eeb9c01cadab26c34cc7a23195d5.gif

2019

Spring2019.gif.835ff446cbc71b202a37a0ec0e36b119.gif

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Better look out. EIGHT feet of fresh snow will annihilate both Mammoth and Palisades starting tomorrow. Two to three feet each day easy. Massive atmospheric  river will firehose that entire region with torrential snow. Weather system will be vigorous and laden with moisture  and extremely slow moving. This is a recipe for record-breaking snow tallies and utterly exhausted ski patrols. This is also a surefire recipe for folks to make fatal mistakes. I just found out NWS Reno is classifying this as an Extreme threat. Winds at crest will gust to 125mph. My heart is brimming with pure joy!!!

Snow will be wet, very heavy and heart attack provoking to the max.

Touristas will struggle.

Ski patrol will get severely PUNKED OUT.

I will watch and absolutely savor.

I am a very sick pup, no doubt about it.

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Wow! Just heard that Palisades Tahoe is now expecting five to TEN FEET of fresh snow above 5000 feet! Rates will be 4 inches per hour for possibly 4 days! Local lollies of 12 PLUS feet on the highest peaks!!!!! EXPECT wind holds on the ski lifts, as winds gust near 100 mph at times! Snow loading will develop and avvy dangers will become devastating.

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=alpine

Ski Patrol will get PUNKED OUT badly. They will be utterly destroyed because of avvy mitigation and from mandatory snow removal. This storm will NOT spare!

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With all the squabbling going on I thought I would share these things somewhere:

Things I think we know and should live by:
* You cannot jinx with things by what you say or do. It is funny to see the superstitious amongst people who are science minded.. and it can be enjoyable!
* Your gut feeling has nothing to do with reality
* Saying absolutes in science is not scientific. We make educated guesses and test it over and over again.
* Question everything, make good conclusions based on research, but be open to well thought out challenges
* Even when being challenged by what seems stupid, and it seems ridiculous, do not let emotion override sound research. and always welcome challenges
* Learn from everything.. that means examine it after it happens! Live, learn, grow!

 

 

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23 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It does seem that way...but I just pulled up the mean h5 pattern from the last 5 winters and only once did we actually get a strong blocking regime that lead to a trough over us for early Spring.  I think we joke about it happening more than it actually does.  

March 20-Apr 15 the last 5 winters

2023

Spring2023.gif.e5c47680b0b77950f3ca570e9da01a76.gif

2022

Spring2022.gif.92f285174bb9d33321f7620ab7b899b8.gif

2021

Spring2021.gif.51ea5779471efb696d8e0fec3e9e60b8.gif

2020

Spring2020.gif.9247eeb9c01cadab26c34cc7a23195d5.gif

2019

Spring2019.gif.835ff446cbc71b202a37a0ec0e36b119.gif

Do April 15th to May 15thB)

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Its ON! Tahoe is snowing an blowin! It's a mayjah wintah stahm, with a lot of blowing snow! Slow moving, loaded for fucking BEAR with several decillion metric tons of Pacific moisture! Many places will receive in excess of ten feet of fresh snow! Katabatic is up at Donner right now in an airbnb! He could see 10 feet!

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Do April 15th to May 15thB)

First... you know you can make those maps yourself...just google daily or month climate composites.  Second...by April 15 onward its so warm that it doesn't matter...-NAO or not so long as its a sunny day we get pretty warm.  Maybe its 60 instead of 70 but its still a really nice day.  Its late March and early April that a -NAO can really make it miserable out for a little while.  

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First... you know you can make those maps yourself...just google daily or month climate composites.  Second...by April 15 onward its so warm that it doesn't matter...-NAO or not so long as its a sunny day we get pretty warm.  Maybe its 60 instead of 70 but its still a really nice day.  Its late March and early April that a -NAO can really make it miserable out for a little while.  

19 and 22 were very chilly due to blocking April 15th to May 15th

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41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

19 and 22 were very chilly due to blocking April 15th to May 15th

The coldest day at BWI between April 15 and May 15 in 2022 that wasn't during precipitation was one day with a high of 58.  The next coldest was a high of 60.  Most of that month had highs in the 60's or 70s.  There were several legit chilly days with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s but they were all days when it was raining.  I don't care what the temp is in a rainstorm, I'm not outside anyways.  

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45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

19 and 22 were very chilly due to blocking April 15th to May 15th

But you are in CT, that's way different... its often 10-20 degrees colder there in the spring with backdoor cold fronts...we don't get those this far south.  I am not complaining about a sunny 60 degree day, and that's about as bad as it gets due to blocking down here once past mid April.  

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