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February Banter 2024


George BM
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pretty amazing this fairly small company just landed a spacecraft on the moon.

I don’t get how we haven’t been back to the moon recently. Would be the easiest win ever for whoever managed to push that mission through. I know there are plans that keep getting pushed back, but can’t help but think if you did it in the late 1960s with today’s equivalent of a box of scraps, ya should be able to pull it off today.
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@CAPE here’s the thing. It’s BS. All of it. For 12 hours after I said “fine you win I’ll take it to the other thread” they kept posting their points in here. And it became ludicrous.  It got to the point they’re arguing “actually it’s fine it’s been snowing a lot”. But that’s fine. They don’t have a problem with that even more off topic nonsense. 
 

It’s a game. They’re playing us all. They intentionally make a mess then use the mess to justify their position. Manipulating the discussion to drown out a narrative they don’t like and using these BS topicality arguments to do it.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE here’s the thing. It’s BS. All of it. For 12 hours after I said “fine you win I’ll take it to the other thread” they kept posting their points in here. And it became ludicrous.  It got to the point they’re arguing “actually it’s fine it’s been snowing a lot”. But that’s fine. They don’t have a problem with that even more off topic nonsense. 
 

It’s a game. They’re playing us all. They intentionally make a mess then use the mess to justify their position. Manipulating the discussion to drown out a narrative they don’t like and using these BS topicality arguments to do it.

I get it. Yesterday it was a discussion about an outcome depicted on a LR model run, so from that perspective it was in the correct thread. Knowing how things go here though, I should have responded to your 'another perfect track rainstorm' post in the other thread. We could have had our discussion/debate there. In the future my advice is to just track what's in front of us in the medium/LR threads with the understanding that the current climate regime is not the same. Not here to try and change any minds. That is futile.

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I think the issue is that people want this thread to stay focused on winter weather possibilities or other significant weather events expected through March.  Having to go through pages of other dialogue to find posts  that focus on the threads topic is tedious.

The discussion between me and CAPE was topical, about a threat.  But it also was discussing how warming might impact the threat...also topical.  It was the stupid and IMO intentional freak out fit some threw after that mucked up the thread.  Then they say...look at this mess we can't talk about this...which is what they want.  I'm not playing that game.  

2 hours ago, Ji said:


I don’t think the discussion should have been moved. When there is nothing to talk about in the long range thread we need to talk about why there is nothing to talk about in the long range thread

We disagree on some things...but you're always open minded about stuff

2 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This makes perfect sense. So when people tell you they know what the climate will be like in 5 or 10 or 100 years from now, we should be laughing at them. 

warming isn't a prediction it has already happened

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

I have had above average snow 3 of the last 6 winters out here in western Augusta County.  The 3 that weren't had really awful totals, but it hasn't been horrible here all things considered.

The higher elevations of our region are not suffering nearly as much.  The atmosphere is warming from the ground up.  The higher you go the less impacted we are from the warming that has already happened.  But just about every reporting station in our region not above at least 700 feet is in the midst of their least snowy period ever.  The fact that some of the higher elevations in the area are doing better just proves my point even more!  

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5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:


I don’t get how we haven’t been back to the moon recently. Would be the easiest win ever for whoever managed to push that mission through. I know there are plans that keep getting pushed back, but can’t help but think if you did it in the late 1960s with today’s equivalent of a box of scraps, ya should be able to pull it off today.

it's a real travesty, but hopefully we're back on track (50 years later lol)

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 Because as in the past, this area of discussion quickly takes over every single active thread. I’ve seen it before across 4 threads simultaneously and it’s exhausting to have that everywhere and not fair to people who don’t want to read it. 

IMO it’s an intentional game. It’s a strategy to drown out a topic some don’t like.  It’s the same thing each time. A harmless post about warming usually topically relates to the thread gets made. There are a few valid back and forth harmless replies. Then the same crew shows up and starts a damn fight about whether we should be talking about it. They intentionally make a huge mess of the thread. Then they say “look at this mess, see we can’t talk about this”. And the end result is they force the mods to come in and squash the discussion. And this makes them feel their ridiculous ass backwards stance is validated.  
 

They could (and they frankly do in other places) do this with almost anything. It’s a legit tactic, if an incredibly disingenuous one. What if they decide the nfl is too political and throw a fit like this in off topic when we discuss that?  Why let them manipulate and bully the narrative this way?  

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On 2/23/2024 at 8:45 AM, NorthArlington101 said:


I don’t get how we haven’t been back to the moon recently. Would be the easiest win ever for whoever managed to push that mission through. I know there are plans that keep getting pushed back, but can’t help but think if you did it in the late 1960s with today’s equivalent of a box of scraps, ya should be able to pull it off today.

 

21 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

it's a real travesty, but hopefully we're back on track (50 years later lol)

Had this discussion with someone who knows way more than I do. There are some factors that make sense. One is cost. We were willing to spend an exuberant amount in the 60s due to the politics of it. Not so much now. The other factor is we were willing to push the envelope and take risks with human life to get there first then we rightfully are not now.  What was an acceptable risk to life then is not now.  Yes we’ve come a long way but the truth is we accomplished that a little ahead of the curve.  There was a high risk we could have got those astronauts killed that we aren’t willing take take now.  And trying to do it more economically also adds to that challenge. It’s not that we can’t do it. It’s can we do it cheaper and safer that’s the issue. 

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Had this discussion with someone who knows way more than I do. There are some factors that make sense. One is cost. We were willing to spend an exuberant amount in the 60s due to the politics of it. Not so much now. The other factor is we were willing to push the envelope and take risks with human life to get there first then we rightfully are not now.  What was an acceptable risk to life then is not now.  Yes we’ve come a long way but the truth is we accomplished that a little ahead of the curve.  There was a high risk we could have got those astronauts killed that we aren’t willing take take now.  And trying to do it more economically also adds to that challenge. It’s not that we can’t do it. It’s can we do it cheaper and safer that’s the issue. 

I hear both of these. Seems like a missed opportunity (though maybe this is impossible… I’m out of my depth) to take the successes and find a way to drop the cost. For the first moon landing, a 2022 cost of $176 billion is probably way too much.

Human life point is very valid. Think maybe my disbelief we haven’t tried again comes from my personal ignorance of the tragedies that have happened. Wasn’t really alive to watch those on TV. puts a damper on the whole thing for sure.
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29 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Moon talk. :lol:  Like we were ever there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm kidding. Just poking the conspiracy theory bear.

The crazy thing about that conspiracy theory is some of the stuff we do right here on earth takes more technological advancement than going to the moon. They don’t question the smart phone in their hand but they question launching a tin can to that rock in the sky. 

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80 degrees in Buda, in FEBRUARY!

WE are doing very good, right on track for a record warm EARLY SPRING then a HELL HOT SUMMER with all time record highs! Maybe even some 105/83 conditions in direct July Texas sunshine! I'd enjoy some 129 heat indices! While working outside at 3pm in direct brilliant Texas sunshine!

This is gonna be GOOD!

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4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

80 degrees in Buda, in FEBRUARY!

WE are doing very good, right on track for a record warm EARLY SPRING then a HELL HOT SUMMER with all time record highs! Maybe even some 105/83 conditions in direct July Texas sunshine! I'd enjoy some 129 heat indices! While working outside at 3pm in direct brilliant Texas sunshine!

This is gonna be GOOD!

Lol, yeah, we have a really hot Summertime pattern setting up now. 

It's connected to the La Nina early, so my thoughts is it will continue if the La Nina does continue to develop. 

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5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Lol, yeah, we have a really hot Summertime pattern setting up now. 

It's connected to the La Nina early, so my thoughts is it will continue if the La Nina does continue to develop. 

Its going to be a terrifically burning hot summer with a ton of unusually strong hurricanes. Spring is going to be hellish too. Isn't the new fiery base state FUN in the developing high sun season?!!!!!

I am so glad I dont live on the beach. It is not worth it. Poor Miami, poor Houston, poor New Orleans, poor ANYONE on the coast, even New York City. Really poor NYC lmao.

I am so safe from hurricanes way up here in central Texas, I just wanna BRAG! We dont get hurricanes. We got super HOT and we get DROUGHT.

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On 2/22/2024 at 2:24 PM, snownut said:

IMG_3415.thumb.jpeg.12eed1a44ab756f9fb623759598a1d23.jpegIMG_3416.thumb.jpeg.c23bf3a469ca96f7c73a7fed99a1c75a.jpegIMG_3420.thumb.jpeg.16ff55399e549b39a040986d5f00b2a7.jpegIMG_3431.thumb.jpeg.c2fe371613e147b6da8a913b957146b5.jpegIMG_3423.thumb.jpeg.3c36d057d3b30d84ec7e4b86f78fdfa4.jpegStunning bluebird day on my shift at Mt Bachelor this morning.  ( low level fog and snow flurries before I left along with big crowds, mostly from CA and WA areas )   

Major new winter storm cycle starting next week.  When I return from my Virginia trip the first week of March the current forecast is for a fresh 3-6' of base of new base.   

The spring ski season is a lock out here. April is my favorite ski month because it still often snows in the high country yet 15 miles away its great grilling weather and the golf courses are open. 

( Closing day this season is Sunday May 26th )

Again a surprisingly intense winter out here after a mild November and December. 

Actually looking forward to spring weather in Virginia next week.

Some low resolutions phone photos from this morning.

IMG_3414.thumb.jpeg.fca14bdad80affbbda5bd761cb4fcbb2.jpeg

I am so jealous. Sierra is gonna get obliterated again by feet of fresh snow come late next week! Palisades and Mammoth may get buried by as much as six feet of freshies beginning as soon as March 1! If I was there then I'd be dancing around like a fracking lunatic!

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