February Banter 2024

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In marginal situations, those high conversion rates don't work. Since temps were always suppose to be in the low 30s, I was right that models never showed more than 4".. I've looked at the snow depth product of every model since they started showing snow for this timeframe. Up where it was colder, they went higher.. that's how it works. I would say that over 28 degrees you get the ratios shown on snow depth, and under 28 degrees it maybe goes a little higher.  NWS updated at 9pm today with 5-8" hold.. What were they thinking?  Anyway it was very defensive pointing out that the models were not actually showing 4-6" around DC last night.. that's all. Hope you enjoyed the snow. 

Chuck, I’ve joked about the resolution of those maps but seriously it’s time to have a real discussion about the depth maps. First of all the dc area failed last night because the precip shifted north of them. They only got about .15 qpf around the area and some of that was rain!  Places that got snow had higher than 10-1 ratios generally.  The temps in southern PA and my area were in the low 30s also. Everything shifted north including temps. And that area had very high ratios because of the optimal snow growth conditions.  Had the storm not shifted north like it did at the last minute the DC to Baltimore area would have had good ratios!  
 

But more importantly those snow depth maps are NEVER actually correct.  They were horrifically wrong last night. They had a max snow of 4”!  Places got 14”!  A very large area from me north to NYC got over 4”.  Those snow depth maps were awful. Had the storm not shifted north our area would have got the 4-8” NWS predicted and possibly more!  
 

They were only right in our specific location because the storm busted and missed us!  They are often right here for that same reason. Because we suck monkey nuts at snow and often the storm busts. But that’s like some guru who predicted western Michigan institute for the blind will have a losing season every year. No shit they lose every year!  That doesn’t make him a great prognosticator. In places that actually get hit by the storm those maps suck ass. And once in a blue moon when a snowstorm actually does flush hit us they are wrong here too like both storms back in January when they said 2” max and the area got 3-6”
 

The last storm Tuesday were wrong too!  They had a max zone of 4-5” and places got 12”. I got 6” and they had 1” here. Honestly those depth maps are atrocious. Saying the models never indicated more than a few inches and using those god awful abominations to justify that is not legitimate. The reality is 18 hours out the models had us getting hit with that fgen snow band that dumped 6-10” up in PA!  Had that not shifted north the NWS might have even busted low in places!  

[87storms]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Chuck, I’ve joked about the resolution of those maps but seriously it’s time to have a real discussion about the depth maps. First of all the dc area failed last night because the precip shifted north of them. They only got about .15 qpf around the area and some of that was rain!  Places that got snow had higher than 10-1 ratios generally.  The temps in southern PA and my area were in the low 30s also. Everything shifted north including temps. And that area had very high ratios because of the optimal snow growth conditions.  Had the storm not shifted north like it did at the last minute the DC to Baltimore area would have had good ratios!  
 

But more importantly those snow depth maps are NEVER actually correct.  They were horrifically wrong last night. They had a max snow of 4”!  Places got 14”!  A very large area from me north to NYC got over 4”.  Those snow depth maps were awful. Had the storm not shifted north our area would have got the 4-8” NWS predicted and possibly more!  
 

They were only right in our specific location because the storm busted and missed us!  They are often right here for that same reason. Because we suck monkey nuts at snow and often the storm busts. But that’s like some guru who predicted western Michigan institute for the blind will have a losing season every year. No shit they lose every year!  That doesn’t make him a great prognosticator. In places that actually get hit by the storm those maps suck ass. And once in a blue moon when a snowstorm actually does flush hit us they are wrong here too like both storms back in January when they said 2” max and the area got 3-6”
 

The last storm Tuesday were wrong too!  They had a max zone of 4-5” and places got 12”. I got 6” and they had 1” here. Honestly those depth maps are atrocious. Saying the models never indicated more than a few inches and using those god awful abominations to justify that is not legitimate. The reality is 18 hours out the models had us getting hit with that fgen snow band that dumped 6-10” up in PA!  Had that not shifted north the NWS might have even busted low in places!  

I've just been too busy the last couple weeks to track this system closely, but models definitely showed upwards of 0.4-0.5" of precip even down to DC.  However, I wonder if some of the north trend had to do with temps/boundary setting up further north as opposed to "well, the storm just went further north".  I mean, it did, but I get the vibe that it was at least partly due to it "just not being cold enough" here.  Chicken vs egg situation, I guess.

[baltosquid]

I must bring the mid Atlantic curse everywhere. It’s warmer here in Iceland than Baltimore! While we were landing in a drizzle it was snowing back home…

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I've just been too busy the last couple weeks to track this system closely, but models definitely showed upwards of 0.4-0.5" of precip even down to DC.  However, I wonder if some of the north trend had to do with temps/boundary setting up further north as opposed to "well, the storm just went further north".  I mean, it did, but I get the vibe that it was at least partly due to it "just not being cold enough" here.  Chicken vs egg situation, I guess.

Those 2 are linked. It was a NS wave riding the thermal boundary. If the boundary shifts north so does the wave. 

[WVclimo]

Lefty Driesell died 

[Chris78]

@nj2va

How's the skiing at wisp? 

Was thinking about coming out for the day next Sunday weather permiting.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@nj2va

How's the skiing at wisp? 

Was thinking about coming out for the day next Sunday weather permiting.

Im not sure how much base WISP has to last but my favorite time to ski in the east is spring when you get soft slush and I can wear a light jacket and bomb down the mountain with no near of hitting ice!  Sugarbush VT and Sugatloaf ME are awesome through April and into May some years!  
 

Unfortunately I might be done for the season due to a meniscus injury. Waiting in mri results to see if I need surgery and what the timeline is. Maybe if I’m lucky and don’t need surgery I can get back out in April and save some of the season. 

[NorthArlington101]

UVA basketball is so ugly lol

1-11 free throws

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Chuck, I’ve joked about the resolution of those maps but seriously it’s time to have a real discussion about the depth maps.

I don't really feel like arguing this. Let's just say to check the soundings is the best way to go. Another point is that in the warmer sector of the last few storms, we have been drying up. That's because the frontogenesis sets up to the north where it's colder. They are not really two separate things.  I noticed in 2020 I think that the snow depth was hitting it every time, and that continued through last year, and now it's 5/6 in the area this year.. it's just a little weenieish to post that 0.58" of precip is going to produce 5-6" of snow when the temp is 35. I feel bad because I know there's a lot of younger people that check the board (like me when I was younger) and they just want an accurate assessment. I don't really feel like arguing this anymore though. 

[snownut]

Snow porn from my shift this morning.  

And mid mountain snow stick yesterday.

Once they send the blower through layers are more obvious.  Latest storm cycle has been great. even at my home in town I have now hit seasonal average.   Feeling damn lucky based on the rest of the country. 

 

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Well, I'm not totally giving up on the winter but I'm definitely of the @Bob Chill Zen attitude right now.  If we get something that looks fun, I'll check it out and great!!  If not, don't much care at this point.  And I don't think we're done, to be honest, but we'll see.

With that, I'll post a couple of photos I got today.  One is a tiny icicle I saw in a tree, gave it a silvery black and white look which I thought was cool.  And a snowdrop flower, they are always one of the first to come up even before actual spring.

[vastateofmind]

1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Well, I'm not totally giving up on the winter but I'm definitely of the @Bob Chill Zen attitude right now.  If we get something that looks fun, I'll check it out and great!!  If not, don't much care at this point.  And I don't think we're done, to be honest, but we'll see.

With that, I'll post a couple of photos I got today.  One is a tiny icicle I saw in a tree, gave it a silvery black and white look which I thought was cool.  And a snowdrop flower, they are always one of the first to come up even before actual spring.

Great pics! When we were heading out for the dog-walk this morning, I noticed that there were some tiny purple flowers (don't know what they're called, not crocuses, smaller than that) along our front walk...and a crap-ton of tree buds blown down on our driveway. Whether we want it to be or not...early spring processes/workflows are kicking in.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't really feel like arguing this. Let's just say to check the soundings is the best way to go. Another point is that in the warmer sector of the last few storms, we have been drying up. That's because the frontogenesis sets up to the north where it's colder. They are not really two separate things.  I noticed in 2020 I think that the snow depth was hitting it every time, and that continued through last year, and now it's 5/6 in the area this year.. it's just a little weenieish to post that 0.58" of precip is going to produce 5-6" of snow when the temp is 35. I feel bad because I know there's a lot of younger people that check the board (like me when I was younger) and they just want an accurate assessment. I don't really feel like arguing this anymore though. 

The precip, temps and higher ratios all shifted north together. It’s a package deal. The only reason those depth maps were right in our specific location was because the storm shifted north!  They were way way way off where the snow actually ended up!  Had the storm not shifted north they would have busted here too!  They have been right for the wrong reason. That’s bad science. Even if you argue you expected the north shift there are better more sound scientific ways to illustrate that then using a depth map that is guaranteed to be way too low where the core snow band sets up.  Instead simply shift the zones north. That .5 qpf did verify. But to our north!  The depth maps had that qpf over us but thought the snow wouldn’t accumulate because it surface temps near freezing. That’s crazy. I got 4” here and those make said 1-2 and I ended up a degree warmer than they thought!  The depth maps are too low. They just are. They’re only “right” when snow ends up low in a location because the storm missed them. 

[Fozz]

The snow depth map from 18z 3k NAM yesterday gave me 2” exactly.

My actual total was 80% higher. It’s a bad tool most of the time.

[nj2va]

6 hours ago, Chris78 said:

@nj2va

How's the skiing at wisp? 

Was thinking about coming out for the day next Sunday weather permiting.

It was actually better than I expected given the weather lately.  They had a lot of trails open and conditions were good with the fresh snowfall.  We just got back to the house from dinner and snow guns were firing as we drove by the mountain on 219.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It was actually better than I expected given the weather lately.  They had a lot of trails open and conditions were good with the fresh snowfall.  We just got back to the house from dinner and snow guns were firing as we drove by the mountain on 219.

It's only 2 hours from my house. Thinking about going next Sunday. So much better than Liberty. To me it's worth the drive. My kids just started skiing last year and they love it. Had a great time at the end of January out there. 

[Chris78]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Im not sure how much base WISP has to last but my favorite time to ski in the east is spring when you get soft slush and I can wear a light jacket and bomb down the mountain with no near of hitting ice!  Sugarbush VT and Sugatloaf ME are awesome through April and into May some years!  
 

Unfortunately I might be done for the season due to a meniscus injury. Waiting in mri results to see if I need surgery and what the timeline is. Maybe if I’m lucky and don’t need surgery I can get back out in April and save some of the season. 

I'll probably venture north at some point in the coming years when my kids are a little older. They just started skiing last year and love it.

We did a weekend in January at wisp and had a blast.

I skied when I was younger and then didn't ski for 20 years until my kids got me back in to it.

[mdhokie]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

It was actually better than I expected given the weather lately.  They had a lot of trails open and conditions were good with the fresh snowfall.  We just got back to the house from dinner and snow guns were firing as we drove by the mountain on 219.

The face was amazing and most trails were generally better than last weekend. That being said, it looks like they are ready to pack it in on North Camp. The top of chair 7 isn't going to last long during the next warm up and they only had a couple snow guns going for some reason. Whipsaw and over the edge had zero snowmaking along with little dipper, assuming those aren't reopening this season.

East Ridge is day skiing only and probably no more snowmaking. A pipe burst and shorted out the lights on mainstreet so east ridge is day time only now. 

I got 8 runs in from 5pm - 7pm. I usually do nights during the weekends and then Sunday or Monday day since all the riff raff clears out early at the end of the weekend 

[Jebman]

WOW would you take a look at the size of these aggregates at Mammoth! These folks are getting DESTROYED by snow!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The depth maps are too low. They just are. They’re only “right” when snow ends up low in a location because the storm missed them. 

Then you're not paying attention. If they weren't valid, I wouldn't use them. I get your blank assertions knowings. They probably have busted more times too high than too low over the last 4 years.  The last 2 storms are great examples of 20:1 posting model charts showing 6-8" vs 2" snow depth, and the later verifying.  Everyone acts like the models shifted last minute. That's really what they tell themselves! "384hr GFS again"! 

[psuhoffman]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Then you're not paying attention. If they weren't valid, I wouldn't use them. I get your blank assertions knowings. They probably have busted more times too high than too low over the last 4 years.  The last 2 storms are great examples of 20:1 posting model charts showing 6-8" vs 2" snow depth, and the later verifying.  Everyone acts like the models shifted last minute. That's really what they tell themselves! "384hr GFS again"! 

You’re just wrong here Chuck. We didn’t get less snow because of low ratios. We got less snow because the fgen banding that models had over us shifted north into PA.  Guidance showed .4-.6 qpf across DC, Northern VA and MD 12z the day before the storm which was the run used to issue the warnings.  The area got closer to .15-.3 qpf. The places that got the banding we were supposed to get ended up with like 10” from .5 qpf. That was supposed to be us!  
 

The depth maps were wrong. They showed no one getting more than 4”. Places got 12”+. A huge area for 4+. It was just north of us. The maps were correct for DC but for the wrong reasons. That’s not good science. 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re just wrong here Chuck. We didn’t get less snow because of low ratios. We got less snow because the fgen banding that models had over us shifted north into PA.  Guidance showed .4-.6 qpf across DC, Northern VA and MD 12z the day before the storm which was the run used to issue the warnings.  The area got closer to .15-.3 qpf. The places that got the banding we were supposed to get ended up with like 10” from .5 qpf. That was supposed to be us!  
 

The depth maps were wrong. They showed no one getting more than 4”. Places got 12”+. A huge area for 4+. It was just north of us. The maps were correct for DC but for the wrong reasons. That’s not good science. 

You are right, but you aren't going to convince him. Give up lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re just wrong here Chuck. We didn’t get less snow because of low ratios. We got less snow because the fgen banding that models had over us shifted north into PA.  Guidance showed .4-.6 qpf across DC, Northern VA and MD 12z the day before the storm which was the run used to issue the warnings.  The area got closer to .15-.3 qpf. The places that got the banding we were supposed to get ended up with like 10” from .5 qpf. That was supposed to be us!  
 

The depth maps were wrong. They showed no one getting more than 4”. Places got 12”+. A huge area for 4+. It was just north of us. The maps were correct for DC but for the wrong reasons. That’s not good science. 

I guess we could have done better in this storm. I was all over presidents day time period like 20 days ago, because there was a favorable 500mb setting up. If you plot most snowfalls for the area, you really see that feature of +PNA displaced a little east, over the gulf of alaska, but still far enough west where we get a downstream trough. We repeated that pattern perfectly for this storm. Then there were mild -NAO conditions. When Allentown, PA plots 12"+ snowstorms, the pattern matches! That's all. If anything it speaks about how model progression has really slowed since the early 2000s, when a LR 500mb can hit it but not the Hrr and RAP lol. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

So with the "oceans on fire" that I've seen posted here, maybe we should move on from big snow tracking because obviously that isnt working, and start tracking landfalling canes in the Mid Atlantic and NJ. We're due for another Sandy. Well, not really and this post is pretty much just sarcasm, but I wonder if we will start seeing more Northern landfalling tropical systems up this way in the coming years? Would make for an Interesting study anyway. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So with the "oceans on fire" that I've seen posted here, maybe we should move on from big snow tracking because obviously that isnt working, and start tracking landfalling canes in the Mid Atlantic and NJ. We're due for another Sandy. Well, not really and this post is pretty much just sarcasm, but I wonder if we will start seeing more Northern landfalling tropical systems up this way in the coming years? Would make for an Interesting study anyway. 

Atlantic Hurricanes have increased 180%, but EC landfalling storms are only 60% during that time. The biggest difference is over SC/NC, and I think the east coast of Florida is also below average. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So with the "oceans on fire" that I've seen posted here, maybe we should move on from big snow tracking because obviously that isnt working, and start tracking landfalling canes in the Mid Atlantic and NJ. We're due for another Sandy. Well, not really and this post is pretty much just sarcasm, but I wonder if we will start seeing more Northern landfalling tropical systems up this way in the coming years? Would make for an Interesting study anyway. 

The biggest reason we don’t get many land falling hurricanes here isn’t the water temps. It’s that we’re far enough north that the prevailing westerlies usually get a storm before it gets to our latitude and we dont stick out at all so once they turn northeast it’s game over for us. Now…if you’re suggesting the whole circulation is going to shift north… if they shift north so much that we are south of the westerlies hurricanes are the least of our issues  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The biggest reason we don’t get many land falling hurricanes here isn’t the water temps. It’s that we’re far enough north that the prevailing westerlies usually get a storm before it gets to our latitude and we dont stick out at all so once they turn northeast it’s game over for us. Now…if you’re suggesting the whole circulation is going to shift north… if they shift north so much that we are south of the westerlies hurricanes are the least of our issues  

 

The westerlies didn't affect Sandy. Matter of fact that was a heck of a block. But.....with the posts about blocking being on the decline, I guess that nullifies things.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Chuck, what say you about the mid lat blocking during hurricane season? Do you see that on the increase with the shifting ocean currents that scientists have predicted?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Chuck, what say you about the mid lat blocking during hurricane season? Do you see that on the increase with the shifting ocean currents that scientists have predicted?

I think the Hadley Cell is really strong right now. I'm very impressed by this -PNA, and that it looks to continue through March. I think that favors a hotter Summer, which would mean possibly ridging in SE Canada, which favors SE hits, but we haven't seen that pattern in many years, but I don't see +pna's/passing troughs in the heart of Summer this year.  Raleigh, NC is likely to go 1000 days without any snow! 

[Jebman]

There is a HUGE whirlpool of Pacific moisture about to smash right into Tahoe and Mammoth ski resorts, and when it does, they are gonna get obliterated later tonight/tomorrow! It's gonna TRAIN extreme torrential snows for hours and hours and hours!

Keep your eyes peeled on these webcams:

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams