snowfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Seasonal maxes shift around all the time. Many of those western resorts just had a killer season last yr. This yr it’s shifted north where Alyeska just went over 500” on the season…more than double what revelstoke has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: It'll then move on into Texas, lol Nope, it will die in the Sierra Madre Mountains. For TX to get rain from a cane it needs to hit Corpus then move a little SW of us, dragging in a nice long multi day feeder band. For Terpeast's sake I wish for only Cat 1 and 2 canes in the gulf this upcoming Hurricane Season. But, superheated ocean + Nina + brand new fiery base state uh-oh Gulf of Mexico romantic coast dwellers, better have your beach house on top of 120 foot titanium stakes what could possibly go wrong uh-oh Miami also. This is gonna be one HELL of a 2024 cane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Time for a new thread. Somebody get on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Did I stumble into the Tropical thread by mistake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 47 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Could it be that the SSW was a reflection type so it ruined the blocking pattern? Pulled directly from the paper Cite: Kodera et al, 2015 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023359 What are your thoughts? Just thought I would try and search for an answer looking at past research. Edit: There is obviously a lot to this paper but what I got was that not all SSWs necessarily lead to a blocking pattern (-NAO/-AO) Logically that fits what happened twice this winter. But I’ll admit I’m far from an expert on this subject and so all I am doing is taking others research and saying “ya that makes sense given what we just saw”. But it’s a fact that more often than not the SSWs over the last 10 years have done nothing for us and frankly a few times they seem to have disrupted what was a good pattern when they occurred! 2018 is the one exception lately where a SSW seemed to shake up a crap pattern and established blocking to help our snow fortunes. But in the whole SSWs have not really done a lot for our snow prospects. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 40 minutes ago, snowfan said: Seasonal maxes shift around all the time. Many of those western resorts just had a killer season last yr. This yr it’s shifted north where Alyeska just went over 500” on the season…more than double what revelstoke has. I’m less concerned about the location of snowfall maximums as I am the recent increase in high elevation rain events. As an avid skier who makes trips out west regularly I can attest that at many of these ski resorts the difference between a 250” season and a 350” season isn’t all that noticeable in terms of the quality of skiing once you get past early January. But in recent years there has been a marked increase in warm events that do impact the ski season in a significant way. Rain to elevations unheard of previously. Warm periods where temps get into the 40s and 50s even at 9000 feet! These wreck the snow quality. And if you actually melt some of the snow in a season where snowfall is low, now it’s noticeable v just a low snow year but when it’s below freezing from Xmas to March! For 20 years I took a trip out west almost every season and not once had to cancel or change plans due to a freak thaw or rainstorm. Sometimes conditions were epic and sometimes just good but never was the resort warning of significant closed terrain due to some freak rain or high temps. Winter Park, Vail, Aspen, Taos, Snowbird/Alta, snow basin, A-basin, Jackson, Revy, Breck, Steamboat… not once in all those trips to all those places did I encounter a sheet of ice or closed natural terrain mid winter. But in the last 5 years 3 times now I’ve had to cancel a trip at the last minute because conditions were crap. And one time last winter I took a chance and regretted it because Streamboat and Snowmass were both a sheet of ice and most of their expert terrain was un skiable. I could have skied that garbage here for much less. The west finally got a huge dump just in the last 10 Days but as recently as early Feb many western resorts were still reporting only 80% open terrain. In Feb! That’s ridiculous! Many resorts in New England are still only 55-60% open in mid Feb! We don’t have to argue over why. But as an avid skier warm events affecting ski resorts is most definitely increasing lately. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m less concerned about the location of snowfall maximums as I am the recent increase in high elevation rain events. As an avid skier who makes trips out west regularly I can attest that at many of these ski resorts the difference between a 250” season and a 350” season isn’t all that noticeable in terms of the quality of skiing once you get past early January. But in recent years there has been a marked increase in warm events that do impact the ski season in a significant way. Rain to elevations unheard of previously. Warm periods where temps get into the 40s and 50s even at 9000 feet! These wreck the snow quality. And if you actually melt some of the snow in a season where snowfall is low, now it’s noticeable v just a low snow year but when it’s below freezing from Xmas to March! For 20 years I took a trip out west almost every season and not once had to cancel or change plans due to a freak thaw or rainstorm. Sometimes conditions were epic and sometimes just good but never was the resort warning of significant closed terrain due to some freak rain or high temps. Winter Park, Vail, Aspen, Taos, Snowbird/Alta, snow basin, A-basin, Jackson, Revy, Breck, Steamboat… not once in all those trips to all those places did I encounter a sheet of ice or closed natural terrain mid winter. But in the last 5 years 3 times now I’ve had to cancel a trip at the last minute because conditions were crap. And one time last winter I took a chance and regretted it because Streamboat and Snowmass were both a sheet of ice and most of their expert terrain was un skiable. I could have skied that garbage here for much less. The west finally got a huge dump just in the last 10 Days but as recently as early Feb many western resorts were still reporting only 80% open terrain. In Feb! That’s ridiculous! Many resorts in New England are still only 55-60% open in mid Feb! We don’t have to argue over why. But as an avid skier warm events affecting ski resorts is most definitely increasing lately. Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well. Get the OpenSnow app... it costs some money at $30/year but it gives great forecasts and very detailed writeups on the weather patterns in the big ski areas, and shows how well each ski area is doing. I think booking a trip a few weeks in advance is ideal... the main downside is that it costs more (especially airline tickets), but you have a better idea of the pattern and whether it's favorable for snow chances. If I'm going to travel all the way out west, I want the conditions and the weather to be worth it. So far every trip I've done has delivered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Get the OpenSnow app... it costs some money at $30/year but it gives great forecasts and very detailed writeups on the weather patterns in the big ski areas, and shows how well each ski area is doing. I think booking a trip a few weeks in advance is ideal... the main downside is that it costs more (especially airline tickets), but you have a better idea of the pattern and whether it's favorable for snow chances. If I'm going to travel all the way out west, I want the conditions and the weather to be worth it. So far every trip I've done has delivered. Thank you for the app recommendation! Just downloaded it, and when I’m ready to use it I’ll pay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well. That’s still risky because there’s been an increase in western high elevation thaw/rain and freeze events mid winter lately. Fozz is right about open snow. They are great resource and warn of these events a week or two out usually. The other trick is to use southwest. I have a southwest credit account that earns miles and I literally charge everything I do and pay it off monthly to accrue enough points for 3-4 free flights a year! Plus Southwest lets you change plans up until 10 mins before your flight with no penalty. They have a ton of daily flights from BWI to Denver, SLC, Reno, Seattle, Spokane and Albuquerque. Hotels and car rentals are easy to find refundable reservations up until 72 or 48 hours. Yea it’s a pain to have to change all the reservations last minute but better than wasting all that money on crap conditions imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m less concerned about the location of snowfall maximums as I am the recent increase in high elevation rain events. As an avid skier who makes trips out west regularly I can attest that at many of these ski resorts the difference between a 250” season and a 350” season isn’t all that noticeable in terms of the quality of skiing once you get past early January. But in recent years there has been a marked increase in warm events that do impact the ski season in a significant way. Rain to elevations unheard of previously. Warm periods where temps get into the 40s and 50s even at 9000 feet! These wreck the snow quality. And if you actually melt some of the snow in a season where snowfall is low, now it’s noticeable v just a low snow year but when it’s below freezing from Xmas to March! For 20 years I took a trip out west almost every season and not once had to cancel or change plans due to a freak thaw or rainstorm. Sometimes conditions were epic and sometimes just good but never was the resort warning of significant closed terrain due to some freak rain or high temps. Winter Park, Vail, Aspen, Taos, Snowbird/Alta, snow basin, A-basin, Jackson, Revy, Breck, Steamboat… not once in all those trips to all those places did I encounter a sheet of ice or closed natural terrain mid winter. But in the last 5 years 3 times now I’ve had to cancel a trip at the last minute because conditions were crap. And one time last winter I took a chance and regretted it because Streamboat and Snowmass were both a sheet of ice and most of their expert terrain was un skiable. I could have skied that garbage here for much less. The west finally got a huge dump just in the last 10 Days but as recently as early Feb many western resorts were still reporting only 80% open terrain. In Feb! That’s ridiculous! Many resorts in New England are still only 55-60% open in mid Feb! We don’t have to argue over why. But as an avid skier warm events affecting ski resorts is most definitely increasing lately. Sounds like some bad luck is playing a part in this to be honest. No different than good luck playing a hand in me not having these same issues going out west to places like Bachelor, Alta, Breck, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Thanks PSU! BWI is a bit of a drive but willing to give that a try. You use the rapid rewards program? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Thank you for the app recommendation! Just downloaded it, and when I’m ready to use it I’ll pay I think it comes with a free trial, and it's definitely worth checking out. It was OpenSnow that helped me realize that Whistler's weather was just so much worse than I imagined - I didn't think it could rain in the alpine in mid-winter but that's what ended up happening with their pineapple express, and the app also showed me the great opportunity in the Sierras, didn't hype it too much but clearly showed that California will have a lot more storms than the Pacific NW once the trough sets up in the west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, snowfan said: Sounds like some bad luck is playing a part in this to be honest. No different than good luck playing a hand in me not having these same issues going out west to places like Bachelor, Alta, Breck, etc. I've been pretty lucky too, even when I booked further in advance. I remember 2021-22 was a crappy winter out west, but some time in January I had a feeling that the pattern would shift by early March, so that's when I booked my first ever ski trip out west and as soon as I arrived we had multiple powder days at Breck, Vail, and the whole front range. Then came MLK weekend in 2023 at Alta. Last winter you really couldn't go wrong with a trip to Alta at any time, since it just kept snowing constantly the whole season. Same with the Sierra. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Thanks PSU! BWI is a bit of a drive but willing to give that a try. You use the rapid rewards program? Yes! Southwest flies out of IAD and DCA also but those aren’t hubs so flights are more limited. They have more at DCA than IAD unfortunately. Just for a general reference I was looking at flights to Denver the other day and BWI had 16 options, DCA 9 and IAD 2 for the day I looked at. Obviously for you that’s upside down but still worth looking into. The southwest app is super easy to use to swap flights and use points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes! Southwest flies out of IAD and DCA also but those aren’t hubs so flights are more limited. They have more at DCA than IAD unfortunately. Just for a general reference I was looking at flights to Denver the other day and BWI had 16 options, DCA 9 and IAD 2 for the day I looked at. Obviously for you that’s upside down but still worth looking into. The southwest app is super easy to use to swap flights and use points. Cool, just downloaded too. I’ll get on the rapid rewards tomorrow too. Getting ready to get some free flights next year, wherever that may be! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Does anyone remember this post from page 1 in here? Hope everyone is having a happy Vday blizzard. @Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, Scraff said: Does anyone remember this post from page 1 in here? Hope everyone is having a happy Vday blizzard. @Ji Actually, not bad from that lead it was only off by about 100-150 miles at most, and intensity was like 981 mb leaving Ocean City Maryland. Not bad at all. Temps are ugly though obviously a much colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I said this in the other forum, but I think it’s working stating here as well. Some things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The crazy thing is the Mid-Atlantic forum is doing better relative to average compared to pretty much anywhere on the east coast (Syracuse and Erie with under 30 inches so far this year is crazy). It's been a failure for the entire east coast not just us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/13/2024 at 4:08 PM, psuhoffman said: Reminds me of an atmospheric turbine engine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, Fozz said: I've been pretty lucky too, even when I booked further in advance. I remember 2021-22 was a crappy winter out west, but some time in January I had a feeling that the pattern would shift by early March, so that's when I booked my first ever ski trip out west and as soon as I arrived we had multiple powder days at Breck, Vail, and the whole front range. Then came MLK weekend in 2023 at Alta. Last winter you really couldn't go wrong with a trip to Alta at any time, since it just kept snowing constantly the whole season. Same with the Sierra. Mammoth is getting rocked with torrential snow and will rack up 16 more inches tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, rjvanals said: The crazy thing is the Mid-Atlantic forum is doing better relative to average compared to pretty much anywhere on the east coast (Syracuse and Erie with under 30 inches so far this year is crazy). It's been a failure for the entire east coast not just us. Dang. 9” in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: I might decide to do my thesis on it. Any suggestions for a title? Half kidding but I really might. I am lookin forward to it. Please set it up in Word and PDF. I am gonna read it about 100 times then save it for all-time! This stuff, is what I live for! I'd love to be kickin back at the Mammoth Lodge, takin in a five foot blizzard while happily reading your thesis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 New topic been given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, rjvanals said: The crazy thing is the Mid-Atlantic forum is doing better relative to average compared to pretty much anywhere on the east coast (Syracuse and Erie with under 30 inches so far this year is crazy). It's been a failure for the entire east coast not just us. Statistics are always fascinating to me. The very interesting thing here is that Caribou,Maine has only received 75% of normal snowfall while DCA has received 85%!!! There is much more at issue here than simply being too warm. Thanks for posting this very revealing information!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Half failed already and not looking promising for the second half This site needs some reality and not smoking the crack pipe of 15-30 days in the future constantly with a system that can’t really get 6-36 hours right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 On 2/11/2024 at 12:32 PM, psuhoffman said: Why are you posting the day 12 of the worst operational model? It appears day 12 of the worst operational model was off by about a day or so on the warmth. Upper 40s to low 50s Sunday and then 60s to 70 to close out the month next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 hours ago, snowfan said: It appears day 12 of the worst operational model was off by about a day or so on the warmth. Upper 40s to low 50s Sunday and then 60s to 70 to close out the month next week. And what are we supposed to do with that? So like 5% of the time the day 12 of the op GFS is actually right. Without knowing when that 5% is how is that even remotely useful? Should I post all the times its ridiculously wrong at day 12? Seriously what exactly is the point of this post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Shouldn’t this be in banter now or at least removed from this weather section? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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