Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Oh, there will be. Maybe as soon as the end of this year?

This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that. 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season.

Time to book a March trip to Whistler?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its warm Winter forecast. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season.

There is a +correlation between the central-subsurface ENSO region and PNA at 0time.. 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its Winter forecast. 

To be fair a warm season doesn’t preclude a big snow storm. 2015-2016 is a good example.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Time to book a March trip to Whistler?

Conditions there will be even better next year

[Ji]

This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that. 

I’ve seen ssw hurt us more than help

[Terpeast]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that. 

I heard from another poster (maybe bluewave or someone else?) that a SSW is only good if we already have blocking in place. Didn't turn out to be the case this time, and in 2019. It only seemed to disrupt the blocking we already had. So it's probably better to have that disrupting mechanism when we have a polar domain we don't like, i.e. +AO. Next time I'd rather get a SSW when we have a +AO so we can break it, instead of a SSW potentially ruining a block that was already in place.

(Ji said what I just said in 8 words)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’ve seen ssw hurt us more than help

There does seem to be a general -NAO/bad Pacific correlation right now. 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. 

 

I want full access! I want them rendered in both Word and in PDF. That is just the kind of stuff I live to read and soak in for millennia!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Semi off-topic, but is TT still down?  It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.

[Jebman]

I hope Nina plus warm oceans mean 240mph canes smashing the Gulf Coast to smithereens!

[Terpeast]

Just now, Jebman said:

I hope Nina plus warm oceans mean 240mph canes smashing the Gulf Coast to smithereens!

I like you Jeb, but no. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Semi off-topic, but is TT still down?  It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.

Seems so. Levi posted on Twitter earlier that there’s no estimate for return.

[George BM]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Semi off-topic, but is TT still down?  It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.

Yeap.

 

 

[Ji]

Semi off-topic, but is TT still down?  It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.

Inexcusable

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its warm Winter forecast. 

Sometimes something can just be random. That’s gambling. And betting on warm given recent trends is smart. But they don’t have any super special insight we don’t. Except maybe if I had money riding on it I’d be a little more conservative and cautious about going cold or snowy. I had reservations. I knew the risks that the Nino wouldn’t offset the recent base state. Maybe if I had money riding on it I would have considered that even more. 

[IronTy]

Just now, Ji said:

Inexcusable

Weenie screen refreshes overloading the server 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Semi off-topic, but is TT still down?  It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.

@Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. 

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. 

Damnit I was going to make a Chuck joke.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometimes something can just be random. That’s gambling. And betting on warm given recent trends is smart. But they don’t have any super special insight we don’t. Except maybe if I had money riding on it I’d be a little more conservative and cautious about going cold or snowy. I had reservations. I knew the risks that the Nino wouldn’t offset the recent base state. Maybe if I had money riding on it I would have considered that even more. 

Yeah, I thought it was interesting that the El Nino was not causing a North Pacific low all of Apr-Nov. The signs were there, if I did a Winter forecast it would have been a neutral PNA, and maybe neutral NAO (N. Atlantic SST indicator May-Sept)/negative AO (Stratosphere warmings, strong -QBO), although the ENSO correlation does pick up from 0.2-0.3 all Summer-Fall to 0.5 to 0.6 in the Winter.. I think I was leaning on that development on posts on this board, but it was kind of silly looking back at it.. the Nino never acted more than a 0.5-0.6 ONI would in the N. Pacific. Since the STJ did get heavy, and the global precipitable water did blow out 15-16 (80% as #2 on record), I think it might be a PDO issue, like you say, or something in that area..  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. 

Purple clouds and shrooms! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. 

No if the EPS was down lol 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There does seem to be a general -NAO/bad Pacific correlation right now. 

There is just a bad pacific correlation. It’s not like the pacific been good when the nao is pos either. The pac has just been bad 90% of the time so of course it’s been bad during most -nao. The pac and Atlantic did both time up for a minute in January. 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Conditions there will be even better next year

They just had a huge rainstorm all the way to the summit a week ago. Like 4” of rain. Wiped out the lower mountain completely and turned the top to a sheet of ice. And this after they got a super late start from a warm December. They’re having maybe the worse year ever there. 

[Jebman]

26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I like you Jeb, but no. 

Okay. NO severe canes in the Gulf. I will settle for a Hurricane Matthew hitting Mexico instead.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They just had a huge rainstorm all the way to the summit a week ago. Like 4” of rain. Wiped out the lower mountain completely and turned the top to a sheet of ice. And this after they got a super late start from a warm December. They’re having maybe the worse year ever there. 

Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then

The lower elevation mountains out west have been having a horrific year. Snow levels on many storms have been unprecedentedly high. 8-9k in some cases. Some resorts had to close multiple times all the way into January and I saw some smaller resort in Montana just gave up and cancelled the season after being open only 4 days when they got wiped out again by the last rainstorm. 

[snownut]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then

(FYI referencing this reply: I work the parking crew at Mt Bachelor and was working the paid and RV parking area this morning ) 

Whistler has had a really rough year. (and the lower elevation resorts here too) 

I have been seeing a bunch of Canadian license plates coming here to ski/ snowboard. On my shift today several British Columbia plates and a couple in their sprinter van here for 3 days. I spoke with them and they were so happy to be somewhere with a good base and they lucked into a colder storm cycle. Powder day today!  Way more rain and ice than normal here but thankfully the storms are juiced up so when it does snow its a bunch.

 

[snownut]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The lower elevation mountains out west have been having a horrific year. Snow levels on many storms have been unprecedentedly high. 8-9k in some cases. Some resorts had to close multiple times all the way into January and I saw some smaller resort in Montana just gave up and cancelled the season after being open only 4 days when they got wiped out again by the last rainstorm. 

First hand that is absolutely true. Rough season for any resorts out here below 6000'  There are several not far from me that have base elevations around 5000'  They are skiing now and mostly open but very late start and probably early closing? Unless March flips colder?  As mentioned in my other reply very juiced storms and AR events so the snow pack above 8000' is massive!  They finally open the summit last weekend here at Mt Bachelor but not before a bunch of dynamite work for avalanche mitigation.