Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ve had 1 minor and (potentially) 2 major SSWs and they’ve all been weird with bottom-up and top-down connections. I said before this winter that I think people will write papers about this winter and I’m fully confident of that now.

Y'all don't think that...it may have been the volcano? I mean I know some kinda laughed that off, but now I'm starting to wonder. I mean we'd never had that much water vapor, right? So we didn't know the effects...but because it looks so weird, now I'm wondering!

[EHoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Y'all don't think that...it may have been the volcano? I mean I know some kinda laughed that off, but now I'm starting to wonder. I mean we'd never had that much water vapor, right? So we didn't know the effects...but because it looks so weird, now I'm wondering!

Maybe that's where Chuck's weird clouds are coming from???

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Maybe that's where Chuck's weird clouds are coming from???

They were seen in 2021, the volcano was 2022.

[Volcanic Winter]

20 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They were seen in 2021, the volcano was 2022.

and @Maestrobjwa

Volcanic climate forcing can be anywhere from 2-4 years with some trailing effects for bigger (or more gaseous) eruptions. The primary constituent of HTHH’s mesosphere-reaching eruption column was water vapor, an anomaly for eruptions at borderline VEI 5/6 level (typically the size needed for impacts). 

With that said, the sulfur output was low and water vapor was high relative to the norm. There have been a few papers published about the water vapor and potential effects; I genuinely can’t answer for how much influence or disruption it may have had or is still currently having. 

I do believe it’s fair to say there is a real possibility of some continued impact, especially as papers I’ve reviewed suggest water vapor lingers longer than traditional volcanic aerosols. 

Unfortunately I believe the most insight will be gained with retrospective analysis as there is no modern, recorded analogue to Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai’s eruptive style + size (roughly Pinatubo size but with enormously different constituent gas makeup). 

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I’m getting weary. 

Yea, staying out of mean lr pattern chasing is making the little setups on the horizon fun for me. I like the op gfs showing a wobbling tpv with ns energy zipping around it. Proximity to the tpv means plenty cold with any kind of organized circulation and south passing wave. 

Nothing to slow them down or juice them up unless a southern piece phases but it's a good way to get snow here even if quick hitting. Nickles dimes and quarters but no one dolla hollas lol

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

The gfs run has possibilities 

[Krs4Lfe]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, blizzardmeiser said:

March will be a daffodil destroyer and crocus crusher.   

Magnolia mauler?

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, EHoffman said:

Maybe that's where Chuck's weird clouds are coming from???

Alien Spacecraft causing them. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looks familiar. Where have I seen this before?

Before I went on my rant in early Feb then subsequently took some time away, I noted in the Philly forum to tread lightly with the weeklies and the epic looks. Of course I got booed off the forum even suggesting that. But in all seriousness I will reiterate what I did at that time. Many of these extended products are heavily weighted on past analogs when there are rolled out. So if a group of indices like the QBO, PDO, enso etc match a particular year (let's use 2010 as an example because this year had many similar key features), then the weeklies would tend to spit out something similar that transpired during those analog years. Not saying this is sole reason we got the head fake, but partly is due to this, of that I have no doubt. Many of us actually discussed this in the past and there is truth to the algorithms involved in creating an extended product. Now could I tell you which specific products use more of the analog data? No, I dont have that I fo, but maybe a red tagger would?

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Y'all don't think that...it may have been the volcano? I mean I know some kinda laughed that off, but now I'm starting to wonder. I mean we'd never had that much water vapor, right? So we didn't know the effects...but because it looks so weird, now I'm wondering!

Largest ever recorded by modern scientific instruments. Largest of satellite era. 1000 times the Hiroshima bomb. You are on to something young man.

[Kevin Reilly]

27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Before I went on my rant in early Feb then subsequently took some time away, I noted in the Philly forum to tread lightly with the weeklies and the epic looks. Of course I got booed off the forum even suggesting that. But in all seriousness I will reiterate what I did at that time. Many of these extended products are heavily weighted on past analogs when there are rolled out. So if a group of indices like the QBO, PDO, enso etc match a particular year (let's use 2010 as an example because this year had many similar key features), then the weeklies would tend to spit out something similar that transpired during those analog years. Not saying this is sole reason we got the head fake, but partly is due to this, of that I have no doubt. Many of us actually discussed this in the past and there is truth to the algorithms involved in creating an extended product. Now could I tell you which specific products use more of the analog data? No, I dont have that I fo, but maybe a red tagger would?

I look at this differently welcome to the new normal?  

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Largest ever recorded by modern scientific instruments. Largest of satellite era. 1000 times the Hiroshima bomb. You are on to something young man.

It's yet another variable into our "unknown".  I am sure (the main term here that you used water vapor) being launched high up into the atmosphere MUST have an effect on our climate for sure.

[frd]

Crazy 

BAMWx must be happy.

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, frd said:

Crazy 

BAMWx must be happy.

 

 

 

 

 

I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. 

 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

 

I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. 

 

do you think yesterdays storm that went south instead of cutting to lakes disrupted the entire global pattern lol?

[Maestrobjwa]

Would this be the first strong Niño that wasn't a complete ratter but wasn't great either? All the ones the last 44 years or so have been either one or the other...except for 1992 I believe...and while that was a moderate, of course that was after Pinatubo...

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you think yesterdays storm that went south instead of cutting to lakes disrupted the entire global pattern lol?

I'd phrase this question differently. 

If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know

[Ji]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I'd phrase this question differently. 

If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know

eps still likes last next week

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I'd phrase this question differently. 

If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know

Or it could have been even worse.  I might be wrong, but I don't think the failure of that wave to be a cutter is what went wrong.   First of all, there were runs back like a week  ago on guidance before that wave became a cutter the first time before it trended south then north then south again lol, where it still initiated a block.  And that wave did bomb out and become a monster 50/50 and does wave break a ridge into the NAO domain, but then it phases with the TPV and lifts up into the NAO space itself and cuts off what was going to be the developing block.  I think those smaller scale wave features are more an effect not a cause.  For months guidance got to the block through slightly different means, different wave breaks, then suddenly it went poof.  I dont think one wave break is what went wrong.  

[psuhoffman]

the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug

First week of March 7 days ago and now 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug

First week of March 7 days ago and now 

does it go back to a good look at all for March or are we done? and how do we know this is right?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

does it go back to a good look at all for March or are we done? and how do we know this is right?

it looks like garbage through about March 20th, then shifts the trough east in time for us to get cold rain in April.  

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it looks like garbage through about March 20th, then shifts the trough east in time for us to get cold rain in April.  

geez...we were going to have so much fun from Feb 11 to March 20th. At least we didnt get an epic pattern and have nothing to show for it like all those control runs you were worried about that were not showing snow. And between you and me....those h5 mint maps looked awesome but 2m anomaly maps even during the best mint...looked like average crap.

[blizzardmeiser]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug

First week of March 7 days ago and now 

Hard to have confidence in any long term model right now.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

geez...we were going to have so much fun from Feb 11 to March 20th. At least we didnt get an epic pattern and have nothing to show for it like all those control runs you were worried about that were not showing snow. And between you and me....those h5 mint maps looked awesome but 2m anomaly maps even during the best mint...looked like average crap.

but the 2m maps didnt bother me cause i didnt care about arctic air....i figured anything that tracked south of us would be snow even if the days in between were 46 degrees'

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season.

[frd]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the weeklies have finally complete pulled the rug

First week of March 7 days ago and now 

For the 6 th year in a row the weeklies sucked. LR Models can not predict HL events, nor the NAM stae, modeling can not predict the AO or the NAO far in advance.  Modeling may be able to handle the warm seasons,  but when cold is forecasted best to not believe it. This winter was the final straw.   

[AtlanticWx]

i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up

Oh, there will be. Maybe as soon as the end of this year?