Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

No it wasn't, last year was a nina. It was the last year of our first triple dip nina in 70 years.

Believe it or not, the JFM ONI last year was -0.4, and we had net warm subsurface ENSO water, starting in January. We did have a La Nina earlier in the year, but for the Winter it was not "strong".

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Signs that it could get very warm in the last few days of the month.. maybe 60s

https://ibb.co/YBPYLdV

Meh...we already hit 80 in late January.  60s will be chilly.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Question: Do you think whatever caused the blocking to be unstable this winter is the same thing that's afflicted us the last decade? (I mean we frickin' roller coastered from deeply negative to deeply positive and back again...what the actual heck?) I've heard folks on here mention things "destructively interfering with the niño". Now I'm jot gonna pretend to understand that, but I'm wondering if all the problems in historically favorable regimes can be traced back to uh...the one thing.

Honestly I don't know.  And it's impossible to attribute any one specific event to CC or most other factors with certainty.  My case is mostly built on an accumulation and preponderance of evidence over time.  

But focusing on this particular most recent break down of an epic pattern on guidance for months until it was on our door step.  Two things happened that I saw that seem could be related.  The MJO after weeks and weeks of being projected by the long range guidance of going into the cold phases suddenly collapsed.  The wave died before really getting into 8/1/2 and there is some weak convection in the MC continent and just east of there going off next week.  This interferes with what little weak convection is in 1/2 and killed the cold singal from MJO forcing.  How much that impacted it, I dont know.  But it seems going from a cold signal to not on the MJO COULD have had something to do with it.  

Another factor I think is the progressive NS.  The blocking was partially a product of wave breaking.  Not all blocking comes about the same way, and wave breaking is one legit way to get a block, and often when the SPV is weak once you get to blocking it sustains itself.  But wave breaking requires the waves to amplify and slow down and pump the ridge and in the end each wave ended up more progressive and failed to initiate the block.  They initiated ridging but not enough to become the retrograding cut off block that guidance was advertising.  That more than anything else was the reason for the collapse of the "epic" pattern.  

I've said my peace regarding what I think may or may not be a common thread here and there is no reason to speculate on what may have caused those two factors because the truth is I don't know I am just speculating.  

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming.


.

 Then stay the fuck home. No one here cares what triggers you or what kind of day you are having. 

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

 Then stay the fuck home. No one here cares what triggers you or what kind of day you are having. 

Changing climate is as inevitable as changing daily weather so we might as well speculate on its effects.  If somebody can't deal then they need to GTFO.

[stormtracker]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago.  Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (cloud formation) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess (more pressure systems)?

I don't even know what to say.  

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Meh...we already hit 80 in late January.  60s will be chilly.

That's exactly my thought.  A +10F anomaly is nothing anymore.  Normal day.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 Then stay the fuck home. No one here cares what triggers you or what kind of day you are having. 

Damn, this is 120 minute CAPE right here.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And this is where this relates to the discussion about RIGHT NOW and this winter.  This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately.  Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves.  That is entirely possible.  I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I was!  But I don't know.  I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all.  

Serious question for you, or for anyone else who has been more following the longer range outlooks (extended ensembles, weeklies, that sort if thing).  Obviously those longer range 500 mb plots are smoothed, etc., and are intended to give you an overall view of the flow and pattern.  That said, they consistently ALL showed a far different view of how the last half of February into the first half of March than what we now see on both ops and ensembles.  Like day after day after day.  And it's not like previous years where it got kicked later and later...the "epic" pattern actually moved up in time.  And then...WTF just happened in the last week or so?  I'm not trying to be flippant in any regard.  I'm just curious why those apparently were so far off.  I know we see more "detail" as the time range shortens, but the blocking, cold air source, etc., seems to have all but gone poof.  Also, while I of course believe in "the elephant in the room" (can't say CC...oops, I just did!), it's not like those longer range ensembles wouldn't be influenced by that or "see" it, so to speak.  So the fact that they seem to have flipped cannot really be attributed to that factor.  It would be one thing if for a week or so the longer range ensembles looked great and then looked like shit the blinds, but that's not what happened.

Anyhow, just wondering...

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

I thought the "but seriously" would identify that the previous line in my post was a joke.  I agree with your viewpoint.  

Personally I welcome CC.  Snow climo in SoMD sucks ass as it is, if I can't have any, nobody else can.  And warmer weather means more moths.  

Might as well go for broke and try to get a 1933 redux up the bay with the new normal 

[SnowenOutThere]

44 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming.


.

This you?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don't even know what to say.  

 

Me either...I don't speak Shroomchaser-ese!

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

No it wasn't, last year was a nina. It was the last year of our first triple dip nina in 70 years.

legitimately debatable, by the JFM trimonthly it was enso neutral.  2017 actually was even more a case for neutral as the DJF was neutral the nina that year died in the fall.  So maybe I will give you 2023 but then I take 2017 as neutral.  Either way my point is we were not in a nina the whole last 8 years, yet it hasn't mattered much wrt the pattern.  Chuck is correct that the PDO is really the underlying cyclical driver here, but that alone also is not an explanation for the record low snowfall and warm temps as we've had -PDO cycles before that were not this warm and snowless.  Actually none were this warm and snowless!  

[IronTy]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Might as well go for broke and try to get a 1933 redux up the bay with the new normal 

With the new base state it's bound to be the first cat-6.

[WxUSAF]

Remember that separate thread idea I mentioned an hour ago??

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don't even know what to say.  

 

Weed(or 120s) clearly aren't working for me. 

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, this is 120 minute CAPE right here.

Damn I wish. Jonesing for one. Drank a KBS though, and now sipping on an old fashioned.

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, stormy said:

Psu, you are a smart man. Regarding, "what is happening recently".  Tell me, what is your solution to "what is happening"........................ What should we do?????   I am very serious...........

About us getting less snow?  Other than adjust expectations or moving north, nothing.  I mean in the grand scheme of things this isn't that important.  But wanting to understand the why and how of it doesn't mean we can necessarily do anything.  Sometimes knowledge is just for knowledge sake.  

Now....if you are talking about....NOPE not taking that bait.  

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Me either...I don't speak Shroomchaser-ese!

One thing I learned this winter is ussually Chuck knows what he's talking about. His long range prophecies ussually cone true.

The problem is I don't speak chuck. I need an interpreter or something 

[brooklynwx99]

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Serious question for you, or for anyone else who has been more following the longer range outlooks (extended ensembles, weeklies, that sort if thing).  Obviously those longer range 500 mb plots are smoothed, etc., and are intended to give you an overall view of the flow and pattern.  That said, they consistently ALL showed a far different view of how the last half of February into the first half of March than what we now see on both ops and ensembles.  Like day after day after day.  And it's not like previous years where it got kicked later and later...the "epic" pattern actually moved up in time.  And then...WTF just happened in the last week or so?  I'm not trying to be flippant in any regard.  I'm just curious why those apparently were so far off.  I know we see more "detail" as the time range shortens, but the blocking, cold air source, etc., seems to have all but gone poof.  Also, while I of course believe in "the elephant in the room" (can't say CC...oops, I just did!), it's not like those longer range ensembles wouldn't be influenced by that or "see" it, so to speak.  So the fact that they seem to have flipped cannot really be attributed to that factor.  It would be one thing if for a week or so the longer range ensembles looked great and then looked like shit the blinds, but that's not what happened.

Anyhow, just wondering...

We are fighting a really strong multi-year base state.  From 2018-2023, the average 500mb anomaly of the PNA region in the N. Pacific Ocean in February is >+150dm average. Since 1948, the only other 500mb anomaly for a consecutive month over a 6-year period is a -NAO signal at +105-120dm back from '64-69 (80% of that recent anomaly). Even March has started to trend toward this strong -PNA in recent years.  So when the weeklies, etc, all were showing a cold +PNA pattern, it was suspect because the global trend was much different. They were showing Nino-climo, and you heard it all Winter by everyone "El Nino's are better after Jan 15th", "Most snow in 2nd half of Winter in Nino's", etc. There just really isn't enough data, and unscientific basis for why December should be a warm month and February so cold. No one makes the meteorological connection.. so we broke that ENSO-anomaly this Winter. That's all. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

I think the question to "why" is legitimate though.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

Wow.. even the PNA/EPO region in the Pacific is close to opposite. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the question to "why" is legitimate though.  

wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy. i'm sure there were some other reasons, but the deamplification of today's storm was the main player

we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur

[WxUSAF]

Ok new thread for this conversation.  Posts here will be hidden.

[CAPE]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

wave breaking never happened. that stuff is really shaky. sometimes people need an explanation for things all the time, and in such a chaotic field, it will drive you crazy

we had two wave breaking -NAO events this year, one in mid-Dec and one in mid-Jan. this one just didn't do it because things trended more progressive... it wasn't an issue with the general tenor of the year. the tenor of the year would have given you more confidence that it would occur

That is a tenuous way to get a legit block. Transient -NAO, sure. Guidance did indicate a retrograding Scandi ridge for a time, which is a path to a legit, sustained NA block. Clearly that idea was wrong though.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok new thread for this conversation.  Posts here will be hidden.

is there a way to move my last reply to Scarlet over to the new thread? 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

is there a way to move my last reply to Scarlet over to the new thread? 

PSU...somehow, I managed to see your reply just in time and I much appreciate it, thank you!  What you said makes sense and I agree.  I tried to "react" to that with a "like" but I guess it got moved so my reaction failed, LOL!!  Anyhow, not sure what thread some of these posts ended up in.  @WxUSAF, my apologies if I got too much into some off-topic elements, requiring some of those to be moved.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

One thing I learned this winter is ussually Chuck knows what he's talking about. His long range prophecies ussually cone true.

The problem is I don't speak chuck. I need an interpreter or something 

Just ask me to clarify if you have a question. I like to keep everything along the lines of scientific reasoning, so it's an unbiased input that people should be able to understand (because it's mutually external lol). They can also just simply say I agree, or disagree.  You should be able to see the scientific point, and know if you are progressing toward an answer. Feel free if you ever need clarity. I learn by writing things out, also. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just ask me to clarify if you have a question. I like to keep everything along the lines of scientific reasoning, so it's an unbiased input that people should be able to understand (because it's mutually external lol). They can also just simply say I agree, or disagree. You should be able to see the scientific point, and know if you are progressing toward an answer. 

so fluffy clouds... JK man you have been on point, if you can get past the shroom inspired moments