EHoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago. Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (clouds) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess? Am I on mushrooms on something? I feel high reading this 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, IronTy said: You never heard of The Panic Room? But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades? At least pythons are something to look forward to. Don't forget the alligators (not crocodiles!) Let's get the jump and start a capture / removal / eradication service now. We'll be rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Steve25 said: I'm kind of split on it all. I obviously believe our climate, like everyones, is changing. I just don't know if I believe it's changing that drastically, that quickly. I don't know if that's logical or if that's my emotions hoping it's not the case. One thing that's definitely true is that ever since this region started keeping statistical records, our winters go through some serious ebbs and flows. I still think it's possible that we're just in a very bad stretch, and we will naturally rebound, but I admit the longer things stay like this, the more I believe we've turned a corner with the change of climate. It's just a painful reality to face if that is inevitable. This part seems topical... and the truth is I just don't know, which is why I continue to analyze it and try to compile evidence one way or the other. I am pretty sure the data supports that we have warmed and it has decreased our snow climo compared to 50 or 20 years ago. But what I don't know with any conviction how much. I also believe we are in a shorter term (decadal maybe) bad cycle and we will likely have a better period at some point in the near (hopefully) future. But how soon? And how much better? Again I don't know, which is why I continue to analyze. But recent evidence is unfortunately hinting that maybe its worse than I thought. And this is where this relates to the discussion about RIGHT NOW and this winter. This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately. Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves. That is entirely possible. I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I knew what I was doing! But I don't know. I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud Big observable visual differences in the last few decades. Just pay attention. Cumulus is a sign of the lower atmosphere holding more ice crystals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Don't forget the crocodiles. Let's get the jump and start a capture / removal / eradication service now. We'll be rich. Set up a GoFundMe. Last chance for weenies to get in early before our inevitable IPO. I may know a few venture capital titans... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately. We did get 3 Stratosphere warmings. When there isn't much data, it helps to know what the main function of a thing is. The QBO/ENSO hits the 10mb level with stronger or weaker vortex, and it's a strong effect historically. We hit that effect this year, but things like Hadley Cell expansion and the multi-year La Nina state did not allow us to fully maximize that favorable system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: La Nina is not a function of climate change, and that is what the problem recently has been. https://ibb.co/34tJQXn 2019 was a nino, 2020 was enso neutral,2023 was neutral, this year is a nino. Yes the atmosphere has been in a nina like base state for 8 years abut we have not actually been in a nina for 8 straight years. We have had 4 ninas in 8 years. That excuse is starting to wear thin with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, psuhoffman said: 2019 was a nino, 2020 was enso neutral, this year is a nino. Yes the atmosphere has been in a nina like base state for 8 years abut we have not actually been in a nina for 8 straight years. It's a decadal La Nina-state. You are calling it -PDO, but the same extent of Pacific High pressure has hit the Hadley-mid latitude Cell in the southern hemisphere as the northern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times. It hit 80 this January too, so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: It hit 80 this January too, so... Yeah during +3std +AO. Strong Nina/+QBO strengthens the 10mb vortex about 70% of the time, just like Strong Nino/-QBO weakens the 10mb vortex 70-75% of the time. That 4-day example this year is 3:1 more likely to be an atmospheric state next Winter, that's all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We did get 3 Stratosphere warmings. When there isn't much data, it helps to know what the main function of a thing is. The QBO/ENSO hits the 10mb level with stronger or weaker vortex, and it's a strong effect historically. We hit that effect this year, but things like Hadley Cell expansion and the multi-year La Nina state did not allow us to fully maximize that favorable system. You just said what I said but in a different way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's a decadal La Nina-state. You are calling it -PDO, but the same extent of Pacific High pressure has hit the Hadley-mid latitude Cell in the southern hemisphere as the northern hemisphere. The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO, the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO, the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently. Question: Do you think whatever caused the blocking to be unstable this winter is the same thing that's afflicted us the last decade? (I mean we frickin' roller coastered from deeply negative to deeply positive and back again...what the actual heck?) I've heard folks on here mention things "destructively interfering with the niño". Now I'm jot gonna pretend to understand that, but I'm wondering if all the problems in historically favorable regimes can be traced back to uh...the one thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO, the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently. Psu, you are a smart man. Regarding, "what is happening recently". Tell me, what is your solution to "what is happening"........................ What should we do????? I am very serious........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Isn’t there a climate/is it going to snow again thread? If not, we need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: is it going to snow again thread There is, but that question has been answered by this season. The real question is will there ever be another 2' snowstorm again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmyers1204 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming. . I honestly get confused as to why people deny the reality in front of them. Are ya worried about being accountable (ie humans at fault)? Or are ya thinking Jesus is just gonna slide on down and fix it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: There is, but that question has been answered by this season. The real question is will there ever be another 2' snowstorm again? Yes, just probably not this year or next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2023 was neutral No it wasn't, last year was a nina. It was the last year of our first triple dip nina in 70 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: No it wasn't, last year was a nina. It was the last year of our first triple dip nina in 70 years. Believe it or not, the JFM ONI last year was -0.4, and we had net warm subsurface ENSO water, starting in January. We did have a La Nina earlier in the year, but for the Winter it was not "strong". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Signs that it could get very warm in the last few days of the month.. maybe 60s https://ibb.co/YBPYLdV Meh...we already hit 80 in late January. 60s will be chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Question: Do you think whatever caused the blocking to be unstable this winter is the same thing that's afflicted us the last decade? (I mean we frickin' roller coastered from deeply negative to deeply positive and back again...what the actual heck?) I've heard folks on here mention things "destructively interfering with the niño". Now I'm jot gonna pretend to understand that, but I'm wondering if all the problems in historically favorable regimes can be traced back to uh...the one thing. Honestly I don't know. And it's impossible to attribute any one specific event to CC or most other factors with certainty. My case is mostly built on an accumulation and preponderance of evidence over time. But focusing on this particular most recent break down of an epic pattern on guidance for months until it was on our door step. Two things happened that I saw that seem could be related. The MJO after weeks and weeks of being projected by the long range guidance of going into the cold phases suddenly collapsed. The wave died before really getting into 8/1/2 and there is some weak convection in the MC continent and just east of there going off next week. This interferes with what little weak convection is in 1/2 and killed the cold singal from MJO forcing. How much that impacted it, I dont know. But it seems going from a cold signal to not on the MJO COULD have had something to do with it. Another factor I think is the progressive NS. The blocking was partially a product of wave breaking. Not all blocking comes about the same way, and wave breaking is one legit way to get a block, and often when the SPV is weak once you get to blocking it sustains itself. But wave breaking requires the waves to amplify and slow down and pump the ridge and in the end each wave ended up more progressive and failed to initiate the block. They initiated ridging but not enough to become the retrograding cut off block that guidance was advertising. That more than anything else was the reason for the collapse of the "epic" pattern. I've said my peace regarding what I think may or may not be a common thread here and there is no reason to speculate on what may have caused those two factors because the truth is I don't know I am just speculating. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Here we go, global warming alarmist. I heard today that Valentine’s Day and the sale of flowers increases the worlds carbon footprint. That is the problem I have with the global warming wackos out there. Instead of focusing on valid global warming concerns there are cuckoos out there that are fixated on this kind of crap. Geez I was having a good day until I saw these posts. The fact that we have had snowless winters. The last few years is not because of global warming. . Then stay the fuck home. No one here cares what triggers you or what kind of day you are having. 3 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Then stay the fuck home. No one here cares what triggers you or what kind of day you are having. Changing climate is as inevitable as changing daily weather so we might as well speculate on its effects. If somebody can't deal then they need to GTFO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago. Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (cloud formation) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess (more pressure systems)? I don't even know what to say. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Meh...we already hit 80 in late January. 60s will be chilly. That's exactly my thought. A +10F anomaly is nothing anymore. Normal day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Then stay the fuck home. No one here cares what triggers you or what kind of day you are having. Damn, this is 120 minute CAPE right here. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And this is where this relates to the discussion about RIGHT NOW and this winter. This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately. Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves. That is entirely possible. I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I was! But I don't know. I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all. Serious question for you, or for anyone else who has been more following the longer range outlooks (extended ensembles, weeklies, that sort if thing). Obviously those longer range 500 mb plots are smoothed, etc., and are intended to give you an overall view of the flow and pattern. That said, they consistently ALL showed a far different view of how the last half of February into the first half of March than what we now see on both ops and ensembles. Like day after day after day. And it's not like previous years where it got kicked later and later...the "epic" pattern actually moved up in time. And then...WTF just happened in the last week or so? I'm not trying to be flippant in any regard. I'm just curious why those apparently were so far off. I know we see more "detail" as the time range shortens, but the blocking, cold air source, etc., seems to have all but gone poof. Also, while I of course believe in "the elephant in the room" (can't say CC...oops, I just did!), it's not like those longer range ensembles wouldn't be influenced by that or "see" it, so to speak. So the fact that they seem to have flipped cannot really be attributed to that factor. It would be one thing if for a week or so the longer range ensembles looked great and then looked like shit the blinds, but that's not what happened. Anyhow, just wondering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, IronTy said: I thought the "but seriously" would identify that the previous line in my post was a joke. I agree with your viewpoint. Personally I welcome CC. Snow climo in SoMD sucks ass as it is, if I can't have any, nobody else can. And warmer weather means more moths. Might as well go for broke and try to get a 1933 redux up the bay with the new normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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