Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: You've said this a thousand different ways throughout winter. I get what you're saying. It's too warm. Nothings really going to change that at this point, though. Short of a Yellowstone supervolcano, the climate is going to continue to warm, and its just going to get harder to snow. but constantly reiterating that doesn't seem to be accomplishing much other than depressing yourself; and everyone who reads it. Maybe more people should read it, accept it, and move on(in some cases quite literally, somewhere further north...) and adjust expectations appropriately moving forward. As you said a few weeks ago, if things didnt work out. Well, looks like we are there., I don't think PSU is depressing himself here. He's looking at the data, being realistic, and trying to give us a dose of realism. I may strike a more optimistic tone than PSU, but I mostly agree with him (like 95%). And although I'm usually an optimist, I'm pretty black-pilled about winter 2024-25. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Matt at CWG isn't optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: You've said this a thousand different ways throughout winter. I get what you're saying. It's too warm. Nothings really going to change that at this point, though. Short of a Yellowstone supervolcano, the climate is going to continue to warm, and its just going to get harder to snow. but constantly reiterating that doesn't seem to be accomplishing much other than depressing yourself; and everyone who reads it. Maybe more people should read it, accept it, and move on(in some cases quite literally, somewhere further north...) and adjust expectations appropriately moving forward. As you said a few weeks ago, if things didnt work out. Well, looks like we are there., It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good. Analysis is analysis. When something is good I say it. When something is bad I say it. I don't blow smoke. I don't stick my head in the sand. And I call em like I see em. Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts. I won't be offended. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good. You never heard of The Panic Room? But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades? At least pythons are something to look forward to. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, IronTy said: But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades? At least pythons are something to look forward to. 2090s for long term temp average. Millennia for the ecosystem to adapt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good. Analysis is analysis. When something is good I say it. When something is bad I say it. I don't blow smoke. I don't stick my head in the sand. And I call em like I see em. Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts. I won't be offended. Ehh it's not odd. It's depressing snow news and folks have their reactions and just have to deal with bad news their own way. It's ain't you, lol Just a classic "Don't shoot the messenger". Bottom line is we're all gonna have to find a way to live with whatever the new reality is...I mean, what else can we do? I still think after some more time we'll kinda get used to it and be that much more appreciative of what we get. Just gotta let go of the loftier snow notions, it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The weather goes in cycles and sometimes these cycles are much much longer than five years. The Earth is over 5 billion years old and you are going to look at a five-year period and come to a conclusion. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: You never heard of The Panic Room? But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades? At least pythons are something to look forward to. I didn't cancel winter. I still think we see more snow this year. If my post responding to what Bob said didn't belong in here than his post didn't either because both were about the exact same topic, only he took one angle and I took another less optimistic one. But both were about the exact same thing! IMO this is silly. Pointing out factual observations and trends and how they impact our weather is not depressing to me. The fact its not snowing more is depressing maybe, me analyzing why is just analysis. It doesn't change how much it's snowing. I can see how MAYBE, if you are trying to deny the obvious because the thought of less snow is depressing my posts could be unpleasant. I am throwing something in their face that they would rather not be true. But I am not going to avoid scientific analysis because the results might not be what some want. And may I offer a counter point. If just the thought of less snow bothers them so much...then ultimately not talking about it won't make them happy for long. They would be better off accepting it fully and if snow matters that much that thinking of less snow upsets them emotionally they probably should move somewhere that will get more snow. Snow is not going extinct in our lifetime, it's just getting less prevalent in this specific location because we were already pretty close to the southern extent of where it snowed regularly even during colder periods. We had less wiggle room for warming that places further north. Even where I live would probably make most in this forum happy 90% of winters if they simply kept the same expectations that they have for DC and Baltimore but lived here. I fail to see how the better solution is to live in denial and try to avoid any talk about less snow. That seems less healthy to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said: The weather goes in cycles and sometimes these cycles are much much longer than five years. The Earth is over 5 billion years old and you are going to look at a five-year period and come to a conclusion. . https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/climate-change?facet=none&Metric=Temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false&country=OWID_WRL~Gulkana+Glacier~Lemon+Creek+Glacier~South+Cascade+Glacier~Wolverine+Glacier~Arctic+Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Caveating this with I enjoy the warming discussion, it's necessary and I plan on being around for 70 more years so I'm interested in the discussion. That said... it's gonna snow this Saturday nerds. Join the other thread. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/climate-change?facet=none&Metric=Temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false&country=OWID_WRL~Gulkana+Glacier~Lemon+Creek+Glacier~South+Cascade+Glacier~Wolverine+Glacier~Arctic+Ocean https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good. Analysis is analysis. When something is good I say it. When something is bad I say it. I don't blow smoke. I don't stick my head in the sand. And I call em like I see em. Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts. I won't be offended. Ah, there's the hostility again. But why repeat yourself, good or bad? It's been said and now it's just variations on a theme. I don't disagree with what you're saying. You've been acting with a undertone of anger the past few weeks, and it just seems to me like your upsetting yourself more than anyone else. Maybe I read the room wrong. I have no intention of putting you on ignore. That function is for trolls like ji or manic depressives like maestro. I greatly enjoy your analysis, even if it becomes a little repetitive. But maybe it is time to adjust expectations in a big way, for all of us. I had hopes this kind of change would wait till I was a old man, but the planet seems to have other plans...I've said my piece, maybe I shouldn't have wasted the time to begin with, because I meant no disrespect or offence, so for that I apologize. I'll go back to lurking. ..Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I didn't cancel winter. I still think we see more snow this year. If my post responding to what Bob said didn't belong in here than his post didn't either because both were about the exact same topic, only he took one angle and I took another less optimistic one. But both were about the exact same thing! IMO this is silly. Pointing out factual observations and trends and how they impact our weather is not depressing to me. The fact its not snowing more is depressing maybe, me analyzing why is just analysis. It doesn't change how much it's snowing. I can see how MAYBE, if you are trying to deny the obvious because the thought of less snow is depressing my posts could be unpleasant. I am throwing something in their face that they would rather not be true. But I am not going to avoid scientific analysis because the results might not be what some want. And may I offer a counter point. If just the thought of less snow bothers them so much...then ultimately not talking about it won't make them happy for long. They would be better off accepting it fully and if snow matters that much that thinking of less snow upsets them emotionally they probably should move somewhere that will get more snow. Snow is not going extinct in our lifetime, it's just getting less prevalent in this specific location because we were already pretty close to the southern extent of where it snowed regularly even during colder periods. We had less wiggle room for warming that places further north. Even where I live would probably make most in this forum happy 90% of winters if they simply kept the same expectations that they have for DC and Baltimore but lived here. I fail to see how the better solution is to live in denial and try to avoid any talk about less snow. That seems less healthy to me. I thought the "but seriously" would identify that the previous line in my post was a joke. I agree with your viewpoint. Personally I welcome CC. Snow climo in SoMD sucks ass as it is, if I can't have any, nobody else can. And warmer weather means more moths. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: That function is for trolls like ji or manic depressives like maestro. Making fun of mental health is not helpful and is actually hurtful to those suffering with it. And for the record...I am not manic depressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Whatever happens for the rest of this winter, we're going to consolidate the post mortem and its future implications in a single thread. I'd actually prefer if someone starts that now and starts putting the conversation there. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good. Analysis is analysis. When something is good I say it. When something is bad I say it. I don't blow smoke. I don't stick my head in the sand. And I call em like I see em. Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts. I won't be offended. I think at least part of it is emotionally driven. Plenty of people, myself included, don't want to believe our winter climate has substantially changed and with it comes noticeably less snow and more mild air. To accept that would be to accept that, on a grand scale, those of us who are on the younger side have a lot less to look forward to the rest of our lives when it comes to winter weather. That's a hard pill to swallow. I'm kind of split on it all. I obviously believe our climate, like everyones, is changing. I just don't know if I believe it's changing that drastically, that quickly. I don't know if that's logical or if that's my emotions hoping it's not the case. One thing that's definitely true is that ever since this region started keeping statistical records, our winters go through some serious ebbs and flows. I still think it's possible that we're just in a very bad stretch, and we will naturally rebound, but I admit the longer things stay like this, the more I believe we've turned a corner with the change of climate. It's just a painful reality to face if that is inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 La Nina is not a function of climate change, and that is what the problem recently has been. https://ibb.co/34tJQXn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don't think PSU is depressing himself here. He's looking at the data, being realistic, and trying to give us a dose of realism. I may strike a more optimistic tone than PSU, but I mostly agree with him (like 95%). And although I'm usually an optimist, I'm pretty black-pilled about winter 2024-25. That STT makes me want to vomit. I guess we could hold onto 1996 and the thought it has to happen again someday. Ya I know... but for those that aren't ready to toss next year that's all you can do, there is absolutely no objective evidence that would suggest anything other then a crap warm very low snowfall winter next year ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 42 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And although I'm usually an optimist, I'm pretty black-pilled about winter 2024-25. With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Jesus. Panic room material up in this B. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 22 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: The weather goes in cycles and sometimes these cycles are much much longer than five years. The Earth is over 5 billion years old and you are going to look at a five-year period and come to a conclusion. . No, I've said many times maybe we flip to a better long term cycle at some point. But were now going on 8 years of total worse snow period ever for our area, and its actually 13 years we've been in a very bad period, it was just interrupted briefly by 2014-2016. But on the whole DC has had an identical snow climo to NC since 2010. 13 years is a long freaking time. This horrible dreg period has now encompassed a huge portion of my adult life. So when I say the trends are troubling they are, regardless of if at some possible future date that I may or may not even be here for, they flip back to a snowier cycle...I am more concerned with the cycle I currently have to live through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No, I've said many times maybe we flip to a better long term cycle at some point. The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, all high atmosphere cirrus and stratus, so it takes time to change the long term state imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Whatever happens for the rest of this winter, we're going to consolidate the post mortem and its future implications in a single thread. I'd actually prefer if someone starts that now and starts putting the conversation there. I thought this was the post mortem thread when I logged on! eta: heading over to other thread where we are talking about snow 3 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, so it takes time to change the long term state imo. That is very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Ah, there's the hostility again. But why repeat yourself, good or bad? Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk I don't intend to be hostile, just being direct, but I can see how its interpreted that way. As for why repeat myself, because new evidence was offered. And in this case there was a well thought out and good point made by someone I respect a lot, but I felt there was a logical refutation to that point and it was worth making it to add to the discourse. Respectfully, you could say the same thing regarding repetitive posts everytime the ensembles show some -3 stdv block and we get excited and post about how it looks favorable for snow. Those are the same posts so why do we make them? Because it's a new example so its technically new analysis. But if your point is this topic has been proven and needs no further evidence or argumentation, I might even agree with that, but some on here definitely do not, and I admit I am argumentative, I am a former debate coach lol, so here we are. I will refrain from further response to this topic in this thread though since now we arent talking about the pattern we are talking about talking about the pattern which is off topic and I will reply there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, all high atmosphere cirrus and stratus, so it takes time to change the long term state imo. So we need to all use less fabric softener, WTF are you saying? Can you translate that please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ehh it's not odd. It's depressing snow news and folks have their reactions and just have to deal with bad news their own way. It's ain't you, lol Just a classic "Don't shoot the messenger". Bottom line is we're all gonna have to find a way to live with whatever the new reality is...I mean, what else can we do? I still think after some more time we'll kinda get used to it and be that much more appreciative of what we get. Just gotta let go of the loftier snow notions, it seems... Models cant get next week right, don't worry about next winter. Not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So we need to all use less fabric softener, WTF are you saying? Can you translate that please. Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago. Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (cloud formation) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess (more pressure systems)? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 24 minutes ago, IronTy said: I thought the "but seriously" would identify that the previous line in my post was a joke. I agree with your viewpoint. Personally I welcome CC. Snow climo in SoMD sucks ass as it is, if I can't have any, nobody else can. And warmer weather means more moths. my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago. That's more conducive of a +PNA, I guess? Chuck on that good stuff today after the disappointing snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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