Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim.

Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol.

Bob said he thought it was a warning sign when the ao went way up to positive after December but kept it quiet...Man I kinda wish he had said something! I know he didn't want to send folks cliff-diving, and I get that...but at the same time, better to do that early to have more reasonable expectations.

[Mikeymac5306]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Babar?

Wasn't there a children's book about an elephant named Babar? 

[stormy]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Babar?

Babar the elephant

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Miss Pixee said:

What is this Hadley Cell? Not familiar.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

What dates am I looking at for his storm?

It's the wave after the PD3 wave.  But different guidance differs on exactly when that is, based on how progressive they are.  Also some runs have ejected two weaker waves instead of one stronger one in that timeframe.  But sometime in the Feb 22-24 timeframe.  

[colonel717]

29 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Wasn't there a children's book about an elephant named Babar? 

1 B or 2?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Signs that it could get very warm in the last few days of the month.. maybe 60s

https://ibb.co/YBPYLdV

Thanks chuck.

[Mikeymac5306]

5 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

1 B or 2?

Two, but they're not together. 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill everything you said regarding this winter is 100% accurate.  And in a vacuum I agree.  The problem is when you zoom out and take the last 5 years as a whole, things start to become a little more alarming.  It's like a coach who at the end of a disappointing game where one of his players fumbles the ball is saying how, its just one game and flukes happen and yada yada yada...and that is totally true and you would never bench a player for one fumble.  But if it happens 5 games in a row... 

I ran the numbers out of morbid self loathing a couple weeks ago.  Since 2010 DC has had the snow climo of central NC.  Since 2016 DC has had the snow climo of central SC!  The main reason for this is its just been too warm.  Warm months are outnumbering cold ones 3-1.  Perfect track waves are tending to end up rain more and more often.  It's too warm is the common thread.  Yes we can debate the different specific reason one week was too warm v another.  Maybe one time the NAO was positive.  Another time the pac was crap.  Many times its been both!  But sometimes the patterns been fine and it was still to warm lol.  Again, we can zoom in and get stuck in the details and find legitimate specific reasons why one period or another didnt work and find ways a storm could have been snow if this that or the other had gone better.  But zoom out and take everything holistically and I think the trends are more troubling and have a common theme.  

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill everything you said regarding this winter is 100% accurate.  And in a vacuum I agree.  The problem is when you zoom out and take the last 5 years as a whole, things start to become a little more alarming.  It's like a coach who at the end of a disappointing game where one of his players fumbles the ball is saying how, its just one game and flukes happen and yada yada yada...and that is totally true and you would never bench a player for one fumble.  But if it happens 5 games in a row... 

I ran the numbers out of morbid self loathing a couple weeks ago.  Since 2010 DC has had the snow climo of central NC.  Since 2016 DC has had the snow climo of central SC!  The main reason for this is its just been too warm.  Warm months are outnumbering cold ones 3-1.  Perfect track waves are tending to end up rain more and more often.  It's too warm is the common thread.  Yes we can debate the different specific reason one week was too warm v another.  Maybe one time the NAO was positive.  Another time the pac was crap.  Many times its been both!  But sometimes the patterns been fine and it was still to warm lol.  Again, we can zoom in and get stuck in the details and find legitimate specific reasons why one period or another didnt work and find ways a storm could have been snow if this that or the other had gone better.  But zoom out and take everything holistically and I think the trends are more troubling and have a common theme.  

You've said this a thousand different ways throughout winter. I get what you're saying. It's too warm. Nothings really going to change that at this point, though. Short of a Yellowstone supervolcano, the climate is going to continue to warm, and its just going to get harder to snow. but constantly reiterating that doesn't seem to be accomplishing much other than depressing yourself; and everyone who reads it. Maybe more people should read it, accept it, and move on(in some cases quite literally, somewhere further north...) and adjust expectations appropriately moving forward. As you said a few weeks ago, if things didnt work out. Well, looks like we are there.,

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

You've said this a thousand different ways throughout winter. I get what you're saying. It's too warm. Nothings really going to change that at this point, though. Short of a Yellowstone supervolcano, the climate is going to continue to warm, and its just going to get harder to snow. but constantly reiterating that doesn't seem to be accomplishing much other than depressing yourself; and everyone who reads it. Maybe more people should read it, accept it, and move on(in some cases quite literally, somewhere further north...) and adjust expectations appropriately moving forward. As you said a few weeks ago, if things didnt work out. Well, looks like we are there.,

I don't think PSU is depressing himself here. He's looking at the data, being realistic, and trying to give us a dose of realism. 

I may strike a more optimistic tone than PSU, but I mostly agree with him (like 95%). 

And although I'm usually an optimist, I'm pretty black-pilled about winter 2024-25. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Matt at CWG isn't optimistic

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

You've said this a thousand different ways throughout winter. I get what you're saying. It's too warm. Nothings really going to change that at this point, though. Short of a Yellowstone supervolcano, the climate is going to continue to warm, and its just going to get harder to snow. but constantly reiterating that doesn't seem to be accomplishing much other than depressing yourself; and everyone who reads it. Maybe more people should read it, accept it, and move on(in some cases quite literally, somewhere further north...) and adjust expectations appropriately moving forward. As you said a few weeks ago, if things didnt work out. Well, looks like we are there.,

It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good.   Analysis is analysis.  When something is good I say it.  When something is bad I say it.  I don't blow smoke.  I don't stick my head in the sand.  And I call em like I see em.    Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts.  I won't be offended.  

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good.   

You never heard of The Panic Room?

 

But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades?  At least pythons are something to look forward to.   

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades?  At least pythons are something to look forward to.   

2090s for long term temp average.

Millennia for the ecosystem to adapt.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good.   Analysis is analysis.  When something is good I say it.  When something is bad I say it.  I don't blow smoke.  I don't stick my head in the sand.  And I call em like I see em.    Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts.  I won't be offended.  

Ehh it's not odd. It's depressing snow news and folks have their reactions and just have to deal with bad news their own way. It's ain't you, lol Just a classic "Don't shoot the messenger". 

Bottom line is we're all gonna have to find a way to live with whatever the new reality is...I mean, what else can we do? I still think after some more time we'll kinda get used to it and be that much more appreciative of what we get. Just gotta let go of the loftier snow notions, it seems...

[Snowguy66]

The weather goes in cycles and sometimes these cycles are much much longer than five years. The Earth is over 5 billion years old and you are going to look at a five-year period and come to a conclusion.


.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

You never heard of The Panic Room?

 

But seriously, extrapolating out, how long til we have the climo of the Everglades?  At least pythons are something to look forward to.   

I didn't cancel winter.  I still think we see more snow this year.  If my post responding to what Bob said didn't belong in here than his post didn't either because both were about the exact same topic, only he took one angle and I took another less optimistic one.  But both were about the exact same thing!   IMO this is silly.  Pointing out factual observations and trends and how they impact our weather is not depressing to me.  The fact its not snowing more is depressing maybe, me analyzing why is just analysis.  It doesn't change how much it's snowing.  

I can see how MAYBE, if you are trying to deny the obvious because the thought of less snow is depressing my posts could be unpleasant.  I am throwing something in their face that they would rather not be true.  But I am not going to avoid scientific analysis because the results might not be what some want.  And may I offer a counter point.  If just the thought of less snow bothers them so much...then ultimately not talking about it won't make them happy for long.  They would be better off accepting it fully and if snow matters that much that thinking of less snow upsets them emotionally they probably should move somewhere that will get more snow.  Snow is not going extinct in our lifetime, it's just getting less prevalent in this specific location because we were already pretty close to the southern extent of where it snowed regularly even during colder periods.  We had less wiggle room for warming that places further north.  Even where I live would probably make most in this forum happy 90% of winters if they simply kept the same expectations that they have for DC and Baltimore but lived here.  I fail to see how the better solution is to live in denial and try to avoid any talk about less snow.  That seems less healthy to me.  

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said:

The weather goes in cycles and sometimes these cycles are much much longer than five years. The Earth is over 5 billion years old and you are going to look at a five-year period and come to a conclusion.


.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/climate-change?facet=none&Metric=Temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false&country=OWID_WRL~Gulkana+Glacier~Lemon+Creek+Glacier~South+Cascade+Glacier~Wolverine+Glacier~Arctic+Ocean

[NorthArlington101]

Caveating this with I enjoy the warming discussion, it's necessary and I plan on being around for 70 more years so I'm interested in the discussion.

That said... it's gonna snow this Saturday nerds. Join the other thread. 

[WVclimo]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/climate-change?facet=none&Metric=Temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false&country=OWID_WRL~Gulkana+Glacier~Lemon+Creek+Glacier~South+Cascade+Glacier~Wolverine+Glacier~Arctic+Ocean

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/
 

[AlexD1990]

It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good.   Analysis is analysis.  When something is good I say it.  When something is bad I say it.  I don't blow smoke.  I don't stick my head in the sand.  And I call em like I see em.    Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts.  I won't be offended.  

Ah, there's the hostility again. But why repeat yourself, good or bad? It's been said and now it's just variations on a theme. I don't disagree with what you're saying. You've been acting with a undertone of anger the past few weeks, and it just seems to me like your upsetting yourself more than anyone else. Maybe I read the room wrong.

I have no intention of putting you on ignore. That function is for trolls like ji or manic depressives like maestro. I greatly enjoy your analysis, even if it becomes a little repetitive. But maybe it is time to adjust expectations in a big way, for all of us. I had hopes this kind of change would wait till I was a old man, but the planet seems to have other plans...


I've said my piece, maybe I shouldn't have wasted the time to begin with, because I meant no disrespect or offence, so for that I apologize. I'll go back to lurking. ..

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn't cancel winter.  I still think we see more snow this year.  If my post responding to what Bob said didn't belong in here than his post didn't either because both were about the exact same topic, only he took one angle and I took another less optimistic one.  But both were about the exact same thing!   IMO this is silly.  Pointing out factual observations and trends and how they impact our weather is not depressing to me.  The fact its not snowing more is depressing maybe, me analyzing why is just analysis.  It doesn't change how much it's snowing.  

I can see how MAYBE, if you are trying to deny the obvious because the thought of less snow is depressing my posts could be unpleasant.  I am throwing something in their face that they would rather not be true.  But I am not going to avoid scientific analysis because the results might not be what some want.  And may I offer a counter point.  If just the thought of less snow bothers them so much...then ultimately not talking about it won't make them happy for long.  They would be better off accepting it fully and if snow matters that much that thinking of less snow upsets them emotionally they probably should move somewhere that will get more snow.  Snow is not going extinct in our lifetime, it's just getting less prevalent in this specific location because we were already pretty close to the southern extent of where it snowed regularly even during colder periods.  We had less wiggle room for warming that places further north.  Even where I live would probably make most in this forum happy 90% of winters if they simply kept the same expectations that they have for DC and Baltimore but lived here.  I fail to see how the better solution is to live in denial and try to avoid any talk about less snow.  That seems less healthy to me.  

 

I thought the "but seriously" would identify that the previous line in my post was a joke.  I agree with your viewpoint.  

Personally I welcome CC.  Snow climo in SoMD sucks ass as it is, if I can't have any, nobody else can.  And warmer weather means more moths.  

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

That function is for trolls like ji or manic depressives like maestro.

Making fun of mental health is not helpful and is actually hurtful to those suffering with it. And for the record...I am not manic depressive.

[WxUSAF]

Whatever happens for the rest of this winter, we're going to consolidate the post mortem and its future implications in a single thread. I'd actually prefer if someone starts that now and starts putting the conversation there.  

[Steve25]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good.   Analysis is analysis.  When something is good I say it.  When something is bad I say it.  I don't blow smoke.  I don't stick my head in the sand.  And I call em like I see em.    Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts.  I won't be offended.  

I think at least part of it is emotionally driven. Plenty of people, myself included, don't want to believe our winter climate has substantially changed and with it comes noticeably less snow and more mild air. To accept that would be to accept that, on a grand scale, those of us who are on the younger side have a lot less to look forward to the rest of our lives when it comes to winter weather. That's a hard pill to swallow. 

I'm kind of split on it all. I obviously believe our climate, like everyones, is changing. I just don't know if I believe it's changing that drastically, that quickly. I don't know if that's logical or if that's my emotions hoping it's not the case. One thing that's definitely true is that ever since this region started keeping statistical records, our winters go through some serious ebbs and flows. I still think it's possible that we're just in a very bad stretch, and we will naturally rebound, but I admit the longer things stay like this, the more I believe we've turned a corner with the change of climate. It's just a painful reality to face if that is inevitable. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

La Nina is not a function of climate change, and that is what the problem recently has been. 

https://ibb.co/34tJQXn

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don't think PSU is depressing himself here. He's looking at the data, being realistic, and trying to give us a dose of realism. 

I may strike a more optimistic tone than PSU, but I mostly agree with him (like 95%). 

And although I'm usually an optimist, I'm pretty black-pilled about winter 2024-25. 

That STT makes me want to vomit.  I guess we could hold onto 1996 and the thought it has to happen again someday.  Ya I know... but for those that aren't ready to toss next year that's all you can do, there is absolutely no objective evidence that would suggest anything other then a crap warm very low snowfall winter next year ATT.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And although I'm usually an optimist, I'm pretty black-pilled about winter 2024-25. 

With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times. 

[Wxdood]

Jesus.

 

Panic room material up in this B.