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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

JenkinsJinkies

By JenkinsJinkies,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker
stormtracker

As many of you know, we have lost a lot of your comrades.  This is going to be a rough, trying and particularly dangerous situation developing as we wait for the pattern change.  There will be tempers

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range.  1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything e

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

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SLPressure

SLPressure

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:


weathermodels.com has the AI-enhanced (embedded?) EURO. I don’t know if anyone here subscribes to it

The choices on weathermodels.com are - ECMWF - ECMWF 3hr - ECMWF 1hr - and then the 4 choices of -  EPS - Cyclones - Members - and 46 days. Which one, or is it all of them, that are AI-enhanced?

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Miss Pixee

Miss Pixee

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours.  

I think folks overthink things when it comes to snow and presume too much based on every model they see. Wild mood swings over snow indicates something else going on not related to weather. Our historical sample size of patterns on a geological time scale is minuscule at best...long term planetary/solar cycles and CC are impossible to predict long term. Changes are not neatly packaged for convenience and results vary. I don't envy anyone in the field trying to analyze or give projections based on models at this point.

Also, snow has nothing to do with winter. That association only comes from places that get snow.

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Miss Pixee

Miss Pixee

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

What is this Hadley Cell? Not familiar.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

I think folks overthink things when it comes to snow and presume too much based on every model they see. Wild mood swings over snow indicates something else going on not related to weather. Our historical sample size of patterns on a geological time scale is minuscule at best...long term planetary/solar cycles and CC are impossible to predict long term. Changes are not neatly packaged for convenience and results vary. I don't envy anyone in the field trying to analyze or give projections based on models at this point.

Also, snow has nothing to do with winter. That association only comes from places that get snow.

I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim.

Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol.

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blizzardmeiser

blizzardmeiser

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim.

Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol.

We could also make the argument we overachieved in the storms we did receive.  3 times we saw a southern trend verify.  When does that ever happen.  I agree some folks were throwing out Feb 2010 but it was still always a few weeks away.  So we lost a pattern that we only thought would happen 15 days out.  Not the same as losing a storm within a few days. Besides was Chill ever on board for this pattern? Someone said only take it serious when Chill shows up.  Some truth to that.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

We could also make the argument we overachieved in the storms we did receive.  3 times we saw a southern trend verify.  When does that ever happen.  I agree some folks were throwing out Feb 2010 but it was still always a few weeks away.  So we lost a pattern that we only thought would happen 15 days out.  Not the same as losing a storm within a few days. Besides was Chill ever on board for this pattern? Someone said only take it serious when Chill shows up.  Some truth to that.

Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line.

But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing.

I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid.

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blizzardmeiser

blizzardmeiser

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line.

But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing.

I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid.

It did look that way but it changed pretty quickly. I think if we get to March 10th with nothing then its a concern but I still believe we have opportunities over the next few weeks. Some might be disappointed if not a HECS but I'm good with a few more decent events.

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