psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: EPS looked decent for the PSU storm Strongest signal it’s had yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Translation: "That's my boy!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Noticed this trend the last few runs...what do y'all think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Noticed this trend the last few runs...what do y'all think? i think its going out to sea 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Ji said: i think its going out to sea Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You can’t ignore the western N American part of the PNA equation though. Yeah but the Pacific dominates Only a 0.3 correlation in the South-SE, and it's technically all 3 areas. I'd rather just go to the source.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Strongest signal it’s had yet. dont sleep on a moderate threat saturday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. i dont see a trend...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. focus on Saturday moderate wave and PSU storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 dont sleep on a moderate threat saturday CMC has it… C-2”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 gfs with almost the ultimate phase for PSU storm. make that work out and call it a winter. I love seeing a big fat bowling ball well to our south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol I mean not for this run, but I just noticed there was more interaction and closer...was wondering what happens if that trend continues. if the PD storm is going to happen...the GGEM looks way better than the awful GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0z EPS v GEFS for Saturday. GEPS is closer to the EPS. If everything breaks right, maybe a light to moderate event for at least part of the region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Strongest signal it’s had yet. 0z more of a cutter look booooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z more of a cutter look booooo Don’t forget the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z more of a cutter look booooo Same sort of signal on the 6z GEFS. Getting NS energy to dig far enough south to phase in time has been challenging this winter. The weaker than expected look in the NA probably doesn't help for this period. Still 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Jacked up setups is all we get this year it seems. Analogs have beaten that drum start to finish so far. I really don't see much to talk about other than med-short range jacked up stuff. Analogs continue to show mixy messy lucky stuff but nothing organized, General personality of winter has been unwavering east of the MS. Personally, imho only, I think the lion's share of the problems are simply being out of sync when it matters. Too much real estate being affected to call it a midatl warmer earth problem or a new normal. Sometimes things just break bad. It happens. I also strongly believe that given the same parameters leading into to another winter can easily yield different results. The one analog that has shown up over and over is 1980. Just unrelenting and near the top of the list for all of Jan and still there now. The other common ones just reinforced the idea of a boring as hell winter. And here we are lol. Anyone bored? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I also strongly believe that given the same parameters leading into to another winter can easily yield different results. ^^^^^ this times 10,000. Every winter is unique. Pattern analogues, nino, qbo, epo, pna, nao, etc, help us guess. But they don't predict! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, Paleocene said: ^^^^^ this times 10,000. Every winter is unique. Pattern analogues, nino, qbo, epo, pna, nao, etc, help us guess. But they don't predict! When the big Dec -ao/nao flipped like a rocket to big +, it was a warning sign. I didn't want to talk about it. I was still biased that blocking would reestablish and stabilize. Then it did basically the same thing in Jan. I kinda gave up on a big winter right then but kept it quiet. Blocking was still on the menu everywhere down the line. And it's happening again. That's my towel throw for tracking anything beyond med/short unless something real shows up at long leads. I've learned over the years not to fight winter personality with expectations no matter what data was used to make predictions leading in. I call it a lot of things. Train tracks, personality, repeating patterns, but it's all the same. When I observe anything repetitive during met winter, I take it seriously no matter what. Especially if it bucks consensus analysis. I don't have any answers irt "why" personalities do what they do because they are usually a monkey wrench confusing people (like me). You don't need the answer to adjust thoughts though. We can still get big snow or go on a heater but that clock is ticking. I'm not expecting it buy I will most def party if it happens 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 So because this storm wasn’t a cutter it ended winter early lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 He told us. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Today is the day we see out snowstorm and begin to track. I told y’all, don’t give up until the weekend. We got time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When the big Dec -ao/nao flipped like a rocket to big +, it was a warning sign. I didn't want to talk about it. I was still biased that blocking would reestablish and stabilize. Then it did basically the same thing in Jan. I kinda gave up on a big winter right then but kept it quiet. Blocking was still on the menu everywhere down the line. And it's happening again. That's my towel throw for tracking anything beyond med/short unless something real shows up at long leads. I've learned over the years not to fight winter personality with expectations no matter what data was used to make predictions leading in. I call it a lot of things. Train tracks, personality, repeating patterns, but it's all the same. When I observe anything repetitive during met winter, I take it seriously no matter what. Especially if it bucks consensus analysis. I don't have any answers irt "why" personalities do what they do because they are usually a monkey wrench confusing people (like me). You don't need the answer to adjust thoughts though. We can still get big snow or go on a heater but that clock is ticking. I'm not expecting it buy I will most def party if it happens Seems like one winter personality trait is the last minute south trend. Any cutter at range should be seen with skepticism 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Seems like one winter personality trait is the last minute south trend. Any cutter at range should be seen with skepticism We can and probably will back into more stuff. I 100% agree there. That's been our savior lol and a local personality for sure. I'm watching snow as I type after 50 degree rain and no arctic (or cold) air around lol. Weather is a trip. As with all tripping, some people can't handle it and shouldn't take 2 Nino tabs on Dec 1st 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 EPS still has a modest signal for Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 42 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Today is the day we see out snowstorm and begin to track. I told y’all, don’t give up until the weekend. We got time. This winter I'm not giving up anything outside of 48 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 JB says GFS too far North for Saturday. He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model. Anybody know where to get that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: JB says GFS too far North for Saturday. He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model. Anybody know where to get that? JB says a lot of things. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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