Terpeast Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z more of a cutter look booooo Don’t forget the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z more of a cutter look booooo Same sort of signal on the 6z GEFS. Getting NS energy to dig far enough south to phase in time has been challenging this winter. The weaker than expected look in the NA probably doesn't help for this period. Still 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Jacked up setups is all we get this year it seems. Analogs have beaten that drum start to finish so far. I really don't see much to talk about other than med-short range jacked up stuff. Analogs continue to show mixy messy lucky stuff but nothing organized, General personality of winter has been unwavering east of the MS. Personally, imho only, I think the lion's share of the problems are simply being out of sync when it matters. Too much real estate being affected to call it a midatl warmer earth problem or a new normal. Sometimes things just break bad. It happens. I also strongly believe that given the same parameters leading into to another winter can easily yield different results. The one analog that has shown up over and over is 1980. Just unrelenting and near the top of the list for all of Jan and still there now. The other common ones just reinforced the idea of a boring as hell winter. And here we are lol. Anyone bored? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I also strongly believe that given the same parameters leading into to another winter can easily yield different results. ^^^^^ this times 10,000. Every winter is unique. Pattern analogues, nino, qbo, epo, pna, nao, etc, help us guess. But they don't predict! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 15 minutes ago, Paleocene said: ^^^^^ this times 10,000. Every winter is unique. Pattern analogues, nino, qbo, epo, pna, nao, etc, help us guess. But they don't predict! When the big Dec -ao/nao flipped like a rocket to big +, it was a warning sign. I didn't want to talk about it. I was still biased that blocking would reestablish and stabilize. Then it did basically the same thing in Jan. I kinda gave up on a big winter right then but kept it quiet. Blocking was still on the menu everywhere down the line. And it's happening again. That's my towel throw for tracking anything beyond med/short unless something real shows up at long leads. I've learned over the years not to fight winter personality with expectations no matter what data was used to make predictions leading in. I call it a lot of things. Train tracks, personality, repeating patterns, but it's all the same. When I observe anything repetitive during met winter, I take it seriously no matter what. Especially if it bucks consensus analysis. I don't have any answers irt "why" personalities do what they do because they are usually a monkey wrench confusing people (like me). You don't need the answer to adjust thoughts though. We can still get big snow or go on a heater but that clock is ticking. I'm not expecting it buy I will most def party if it happens 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 So because this storm wasn’t a cutter it ended winter early lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 He told us. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Today is the day we see out snowstorm and begin to track. I told y’all, don’t give up until the weekend. We got time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When the big Dec -ao/nao flipped like a rocket to big +, it was a warning sign. I didn't want to talk about it. I was still biased that blocking would reestablish and stabilize. Then it did basically the same thing in Jan. I kinda gave up on a big winter right then but kept it quiet. Blocking was still on the menu everywhere down the line. And it's happening again. That's my towel throw for tracking anything beyond med/short unless something real shows up at long leads. I've learned over the years not to fight winter personality with expectations no matter what data was used to make predictions leading in. I call it a lot of things. Train tracks, personality, repeating patterns, but it's all the same. When I observe anything repetitive during met winter, I take it seriously no matter what. Especially if it bucks consensus analysis. I don't have any answers irt "why" personalities do what they do because they are usually a monkey wrench confusing people (like me). You don't need the answer to adjust thoughts though. We can still get big snow or go on a heater but that clock is ticking. I'm not expecting it buy I will most def party if it happens Seems like one winter personality trait is the last minute south trend. Any cutter at range should be seen with skepticism 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Seems like one winter personality trait is the last minute south trend. Any cutter at range should be seen with skepticism We can and probably will back into more stuff. I 100% agree there. That's been our savior lol and a local personality for sure. I'm watching snow as I type after 50 degree rain and no arctic (or cold) air around lol. Weather is a trip. As with all tripping, some people can't handle it and shouldn't take 2 Nino tabs on Dec 1st 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 EPS still has a modest signal for Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 42 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Today is the day we see out snowstorm and begin to track. I told y’all, don’t give up until the weekend. We got time. This winter I'm not giving up anything outside of 48 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 JB says GFS too far North for Saturday. He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model. Anybody know where to get that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: JB says GFS too far North for Saturday. He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model. Anybody know where to get that? JB says a lot of things. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 I actually don’t hate Saturday for a 1-3” type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 JB says GFS too far North for Saturday. He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model. Anybody know where to get that? weathermodels.com has the AI-enhanced (embedded?) EURO. I don’t know if anyone here subscribes to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 JB says GFS too far North for Saturday. He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model. Anybody know where to get that? Al Bundy has a model? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Al Bundy has a model? The No Ma'am model... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: weathermodels.com has the AI-enhanced (embedded?) EURO. I don’t know if anyone here subscribes to it Cool, thanks. JB has been touting it this season. If there's one place i expect AI to be better than humans it is forecasting weather. The model should be getting huge amounts of data every day to compare and contrast forecasts to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 The Spire also likes Saturday. I have no idea how accurate it's been this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: JB says a lot of things. "Direct hit" makes it sound like a major event is inbound. A cat can puke in your shoe and that's also a direct hit...but not a very major one...words matter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: JB says a lot of things. When JB Talks... Weenies listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 This is the correct 24hr map I was trying to show. 12z ICON and whatnot but... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Beware the Last Minute South Trend™ 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Beware the Last Minute South Trend™ Meanwhile it will go way north this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Beware the Last Minute South Trend6z ICON was an area wide 3-6”. Need it to jump back south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 6z ICON was an area wide 3-6”. Need it to jump back south start the first thread now so we have time for the second one 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: start the first thread now so we have time for the second one It’s not that far out, should we start a thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It’s not that far out, should we start a thread? Yes. Do it. Leaves LR open for LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 51 minutes ago, Ji said: Al Bundy has a model? AI got this one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now