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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Its because they were expecting a big dog because it looked that way a couple weeks ago, and now that's no longer the case and many are very disappointed and frustrated. I am, too, but I'm not calling the end of winter because there will still be chances after tomorrow.

But the last 24 hours is evident that a big dog could be around the corner. 

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8 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Noticing the use of past tense here, are you close to saying its more or less over besides the 18th-22nd time period?

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

4 hours ago, Ji said:

i just dont understand what happened....

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

 

Yeah, maybe we should've listened to Chuck. If you can get past the Chuck-speak and really understand what he's saying, you'll see his uncanny ability to make calls that seemed farfetched and then come true later. 

And we did get a beast -NAO block in January... it was surprising how quickly it fell apart.

 

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

I’ve read what he said about the expanded hadley cell, but he said it isn’t due to AGW. So I don’t know what to pin it on other than the west pac warm pool. I’m running out of answers if I’m being frank

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

look +pna. Happy? 

I'd say it's more -PNA/-PDO with a ridge south of the Aleutian islands and trough over Alaska. 

12z GEFS was really strong -PNA around the 24th, with this central N. Pacific High pressure. We don't trend toward snow when this. 

https://ibb.co/4twbnfY

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

Well, this is depressing. Guess our HECS chances this year are just about cancelled.

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Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 
I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how [mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

No way mjo should have that much impact.
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4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yep. He was saying that nat gas futures were indicating a warm winter ahead. I thought that was odd, yet here we are.

Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. just normal ENSO climo. 

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

This makes me wonder if we’ll never see another 15”+ event in the metros ever again and that 2016 was us crossing a tipping point?

 

The “is it ever going to snow again” question got answer this season, maybe we should make a “is there ever going to be another hecs/mecs in our lifetime?” thread.

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8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Gonna channel my inner Ji and say the only time it has that much impact is when it isn’t good.

I think we all have a little Ji in us but it’s mid Feb…light still lit…dimming but lit.  

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37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’ve read what he said about the expanded hadley cell, but he said it isn’t due to AGW. So I don’t know what to pin it on other than the west pac warm pool. I’m running out of answers if I’m being frank

We can disagree on the cause of that particular feature but agree on the impact.  I do think the western pac has run interference with a typical Nino mjo response.  It can be multiple things. Problem is all those things are pushing the needle the same direction and they’re all related to the same root cause. 

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Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islands
https://ibb.co/9Wycxzf

Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY

With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions. 

That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too.. 

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14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. 

Except that’s the polar opposite ridge trough configuration as the plot I posted that you also called a -pna. You can’t just call every bad pattern here -pna. It might not have been good for us but that full latitude ridge in the west I posted is most definitely a +pna. The region you were focusing on is more the epo domain.  There is some overlap and ideally we want a -epo +pna. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except that’s the polar opposite ridge trough configuration as the plot I posted that you also called a -pna. You can’t just call every bad pattern here -pna. It might not have been good for us but that full latitude ridge in the west I posted is most definitely a +pna. The region you were focusing on is more the epo domain.  There is some overlap and ideally we want a -epo +pna. 

The main region for PNA is in the N. Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian islands.. Both, or all 3 images shown so far had a ridge there (-PNA).  I don't call what's happening over alaska or gulf of alaska, pna, although the CPC does include that. 

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7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islands
https://ibb.co/9Wycxzf

Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY

With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions (in the historical dataset). 

That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too.. 

But is it right?  Isn't the EPS colder?

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10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

But is it right?  Isn't the EPS colder?

ENSO subsurface is showing a -3c pocket now in the central region at -200m. In my research/experience, that has a pretty high correlation to the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time (backs the -PNA idea). Plus we are in some strong multi-year states with that 500mb feature in Feb/March. 

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Big move on the weeklies, showing above normal temps 2-3 weeks from now. Looks like we’ll have a quick transition to spring after this wintry week coming up. Still shocks me how the long range is almost void of any snow for much of CONUS for the next few weeks. Even in abysmal winters of 2012,2020,2023, at least someone was getting the goods. This is just downright strange, like a winter without a winter (save for a couple weeks in January). Colder conditions look likely for the west, which could lead to some snow there over the next few weeks, but holy moly has this been an abrupt change in models for the long range. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Models are struggling inside 12 hours with the storm on our doorstep and people are losing their minds over individual long range runs 1-2+ weeks out?

Gimme a break.

If they cut every model off at 5 days and decommission the weeklies, that would save me a hell lot of time and grief. 

Just pull the plug already

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2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The main region for PNA is in the N. Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian islands.. Both, or all 3 images shown so far had a ridge there (-PNA).  I don't call what's happening over alaska or gulf of alaska, pna, although the CPC does include that. 

You can’t ignore the western N American part of the PNA equation though. 
IMG_1514.jpeg.ed4e7cf429b980f138ef6e93c0dcfe63.jpeg

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