Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Chuck may get Forecaster of the Year for this season if things keep trending.  

i thought chuck was on board

[jaydreb]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

eps must not of been horrible for next week

Somehow e33 will be right.  

[blizzardmeiser]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

i thought chuck was on board

Chuck was skeptical

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

eps must not of been horrible for next week

Nice. Still a lot of members with more snow after tomorrow. 

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Chuck was skeptical

Yep. He was saying that nat gas futures were indicating a warm winter ahead. I thought that was odd, yet here we are.

[snownut]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance

Good luck rest of year….

Cya at 00z


.

47 years in VA area and now 10 years in PNW gotta say its painful to watch how many yuck winter seasons back there.  I remember some great years with extended snow cover and cold.  Particularly when I lived near Winchester.  Seems like even when it does snow there its gone so fast. Even places like Canaan Valley where I could almost always drive and get into some snow are suffering with brown and bare winters. 

Strong odds I'll be living mostly in VA again when I retire. Have made some deep connections out here and at least one of my kids looks very rooted in here so I'll be able to visit Cascade snow country again to escape the chilly east coast rain storms that seem to be the new norm. 

Good luck the rest of the season! 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yep. He was saying that nat gas futures were indicating a warm winter ahead. I thought that was odd, yet here we are.

its not hard to predict a warm winter

[blizzardmeiser]

Just now, Ji said:

its not hard to predict a warm winter

It is when everyone is harping at an all time epic pattern at the same time.  Got to give him credit. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

It is when everyone is harping at an all time epic pattern at the same time.  Got to give him credit. 

i think it was more for snow than cold. You can have warm winters with alot of snow

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

its not hard to predict a warm winter

What matters is what's right, not what's hard.  

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think he’s just tracking the actual snowstorm that his subforum is going to get.

But yeah… eerily quiet. Probably for the best we focus on tomorrow’s oddness before opening this thread again anyway.

yes

[RIC_WX]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think it was more for snow than cold. You can have warm winters with alot of snow

But you can't have a lot of snow without days that feature some cold air.  At Dulles, 57 days have been AN and 17 days have been BN since 12.1.  And that is against the 1991+ normals which are way warmer than recent past decades.  Its been an overwhelmingly warm and wet winter, blame it on whatever you want but we have seen Nino's like this in the past and should only expect them to be even worse today given the overwhelming warm bias to begin with.

[snowmagnet]

I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours.  

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours.  

Its because they were expecting a big dog because it looked that way a couple weeks ago, and now that's no longer the case and many are very disappointed and frustrated. I am, too, but I'm not calling the end of winter because there will still be chances after tomorrow.

[snowmagnet]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Its because they were expecting a big dog because it looked that way a couple weeks ago, and now that's no longer the case and many are very disappointed and frustrated. I am, too, but I'm not calling the end of winter because there will still be chances after tomorrow.

But the last 24 hours is evident that a big dog could be around the corner. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Hey look! The PSU storm in fantasy land 

[Ji]

18z gfs looks like what i expected it look 5 days ago

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Noticing the use of past tense here, are you close to saying its more or less over besides the 18th-22nd time period?

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

4 hours ago, Ji said:

i just dont understand what happened....

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

 

Yeah, maybe we should've listened to Chuck. If you can get past the Chuck-speak and really understand what he's saying, you'll see his uncanny ability to make calls that seemed farfetched and then come true later. 

And we did get a beast -NAO block in January... it was surprising how quickly it fell apart.

 

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1

look +pna. Happy? 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

I’ve read what he said about the expanded hadley cell, but he said it isn’t due to AGW. So I don’t know what to pin it on other than the west pac warm pool. I’m running out of answers if I’m being frank

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

look +pna. Happy? 

I'd say it's more -PNA/-PDO with a ridge south of the Aleutian islands and trough over Alaska. 

12z GEFS was really strong -PNA around the 24th, with this central N. Pacific High pressure. We don't trend toward snow when this. 

https://ibb.co/4twbnfY

[osfan24]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

Well, this is depressing. Guess our HECS chances this year are just about cancelled.

[Ji]

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 
I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how [mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

No way mjo should have that much impact.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Well, this is depressing. Guess our HECS chances this year are just about cancelled.

I'll echo stormtracker say that I'd hold off on saying that until Monday (or even this weekend...still don't know how that's gonna shake out yet)

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

No way mjo should have that much impact.

Gonna channel my inner Ji and say the only time it has that much impact is when it isn’t good.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yep. He was saying that nat gas futures were indicating a warm winter ahead. I thought that was odd, yet here we are.

Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. just normal ENSO climo. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

This makes me wonder if we’ll never see another 15”+ event in the metros ever again and that 2016 was us crossing a tipping point?

 

The “is it ever going to snow again” question got answer this season, maybe we should make a “is there ever going to be another hecs/mecs in our lifetime?” thread.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Gonna channel my inner Ji and say the only time it has that much impact is when it isn’t good.

I think we all have a little Ji in us but it’s mid Feb…light still lit…dimming but lit.  

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’ve read what he said about the expanded hadley cell, but he said it isn’t due to AGW. So I don’t know what to pin it on other than the west pac warm pool. I’m running out of answers if I’m being frank

We can disagree on the cause of that particular feature but agree on the impact.  I do think the western pac has run interference with a typical Nino mjo response.  It can be multiple things. Problem is all those things are pushing the needle the same direction and they’re all related to the same root cause. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islands
https://ibb.co/9Wycxzf

Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY

With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions. 

That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too..