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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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45 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Yup.  Cautionary tale for putting too much stock in long term models.   

I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 

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10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 

Yeah you have people in the Panic Room just completely trashing this thread. Like I get being frustrated, but don't sit here and act like you don't have the better minds in here doing great analysis. In weather all you can talk about is what you see modeled...and then you go from there. Sometimes it will work out, sometimes it won't...but don't say it's useless just out of frustration.

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27 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 

Agree though it is hard to put too much faith in them when we see so many changes over that time period.  

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Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance

Good luck rest of year….

Cya at 00z


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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't get what's going on with this window in general...I mean is that the ceiling of potential here, or is this just one part of it? Sucks seeing all that moisture getting suppressed on these runs...although seems a bit less suppressed this time. I wonder what would happen if the ns wave were to slow down and dive in behind instead of going on top or ahead. Complicated setup?

I think there’s been potential for phasing the entire time with this, but outside of a few random op runs, there hasn’t been much support for it. Mostly guidance has suggested that in some way the northern stream squashes the southern wave. For now seems our best chance for snow is with the northern shortwave alone. Honestly it’s not much different than the second storm of our January week of winter. Can we get another short range favorable trend??

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36 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance

Good luck rest of year….

Cya at 00z


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Damn. We lost a Colonel yall.  

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27 minutes ago, Ji said:

i just dont understand what happened....

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

So you're saying that Chuck was right.

Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes.

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

 

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So you're saying that Chuck was right.

Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes.

 

Yeah, maybe we should've listened to Chuck. If you can get past the Chuck-speak and really understand what he's saying, you'll see his uncanny ability to make calls that seemed farfetched and then come true later. 

And we did get a beast -NAO block in January... it was surprising how quickly it fell apart.

 

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23 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So you're saying that Chuck was right.

Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes.

Chuck may get Forecaster of the Year for this season if things keep trending.  

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30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

eps must not of been horrible for next week

download (22).png

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2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance

Good luck rest of year….

Cya at 00z


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47 years in VA area and now 10 years in PNW gotta say its painful to watch how many yuck winter seasons back there.  I remember some great years with extended snow cover and cold.  Particularly when I lived near Winchester.  Seems like even when it does snow there its gone so fast. Even places like Canaan Valley where I could almost always drive and get into some snow are suffering with brown and bare winters. 

Strong odds I'll be living mostly in VA again when I retire. Have made some deep connections out here and at least one of my kids looks very rooted in here so I'll be able to visit Cascade snow country again to escape the chilly east coast rain storms that seem to be the new norm. 

Good luck the rest of the season! 

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1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

It is when everyone is harping at an all time epic pattern at the same time.  Got to give him credit. 

i think it was more for snow than cold. You can have warm winters with alot of snow

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34 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think it was more for snow than cold. You can have warm winters with alot of snow

But you can't have a lot of snow without days that feature some cold air.  At Dulles, 57 days have been AN and 17 days have been BN since 12.1.  And that is against the 1991+ normals which are way warmer than recent past decades.  Its been an overwhelmingly warm and wet winter, blame it on whatever you want but we have seen Nino's like this in the past and should only expect them to be even worse today given the overwhelming warm bias to begin with.

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2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours.  

Its because they were expecting a big dog because it looked that way a couple weeks ago, and now that's no longer the case and many are very disappointed and frustrated. I am, too, but I'm not calling the end of winter because there will still be chances after tomorrow.

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