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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

JenkinsJinkies

By JenkinsJinkies,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, 87storms said:


Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.

Now watch us get a March hecs.

 

37 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

For us, delayed is denied.

13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg.  and 5 of those were during Nino years.  So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter.  

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stormtracker
stormtracker

As many of you know, we have lost a lot of your comrades.  This is going to be a rough, trying and particularly dangerous situation developing as we wait for the pattern change.  There will be tempers

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range.  1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything e

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

then, you have the 2nd! and the 6th! and the 12th... and the 17th....... and the 20th

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SnowenOutThere

SnowenOutThere

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg.  and 5 of those were during Nino years.  So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter.  

Noticing the use of past tense here, are you close to saying its more or less over besides the 18th-22nd time period?

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
Just now, AlexD1990 said:

so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here...

This is definitely a low point and things look kinda bleak tbh.  But I urge everyone to hang in there until at least this weekend or even Monday 0z.   Models are all over the place.  If the pattern is looking like shit or we're not tracking by then, I dunno man

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Paleocene

Paleocene

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here...

I think the big threat, if we still have it, is not until after this weekend. And it's still there, it hasn't evaporated. Patience required.  And with short run modeling being haywire this year, maybe we can get a quick win (win = seeing snowflakes) in the meantime.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.

Exactly. Those backloaded winters were only backloaded on snow. There was cold air around for what seemed like November thru March.
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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is definitely a low point and things look kinda bleak tbh.  But I urge everyone to hang in there until at least this weekend or even Monday 0z.   Models are all over the place.  If the pattern is looking like shit or we're not tracking by then, I dunno man

Keep the faith, March will be rockin!

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wasnow215

wasnow215

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Yup.  Cautionary tale for putting too much stock in long term models.   

I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 

Yeah you have people in the Panic Room just completely trashing this thread. Like I get being frustrated, but don't sit here and act like you don't have the better minds in here doing great analysis. In weather all you can talk about is what you see modeled...and then you go from there. Sometimes it will work out, sometimes it won't...but don't say it's useless just out of frustration.

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blizzardmeiser

blizzardmeiser

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I respect people who tell us what they’re seeing with the LR stuff good or bad. Sometimes it doesn’t turn out. Better than people who say nothing and then say “I told you so”. Hard to tell you so if one has said nothing or just been negative OR positive with no or little backing. Not you personally as I have no idea what you’ve forecasted haha. 

Agree though it is hard to put too much faith in them when we see so many changes over that time period.  

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't get what's going on with this window in general...I mean is that the ceiling of potential here, or is this just one part of it? Sucks seeing all that moisture getting suppressed on these runs...although seems a bit less suppressed this time. I wonder what would happen if the ns wave were to slow down and dive in behind instead of going on top or ahead. Complicated setup?

I think there’s been potential for phasing the entire time with this, but outside of a few random op runs, there hasn’t been much support for it. Mostly guidance has suggested that in some way the northern stream squashes the southern wave. For now seems our best chance for snow is with the northern shortwave alone. Honestly it’s not much different than the second storm of our January week of winter. Can we get another short range favorable trend??

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance

Good luck rest of year….

Cya at 00z


.

Damn. We lost a Colonel yall.  

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Ji said:

i just dont understand what happened....

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

So you're saying that Chuck was right.

Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

 

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So you're saying that Chuck was right.

Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes.

 

Yeah, maybe we should've listened to Chuck. If you can get past the Chuck-speak and really understand what he's saying, you'll see his uncanny ability to make calls that seemed farfetched and then come true later. 

And we did get a beast -NAO block in January... it was surprising how quickly it fell apart.

 

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IronTy

IronTy

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So you're saying that Chuck was right.

Crazy to think that the monthlies and weeklies and ensembles were all on board for AGES only up until last week, but now it's all convoluted and far less of a given that we'll even see a portion of that look when the time comes.

Chuck may get Forecaster of the Year for this season if things keep trending.  

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly it seems we don’t have a huge 4SD retrograding -NAO anymore. The pattern this upcoming weekend and through the following week still looks “decent/workable/fine”. Some periodic +PNA, continuing -AO…it’s not a bad pattern by any means! Just doesn’t look epic anymore. 

eps must not of been horrible for next week

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