EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say Of course they're more correct now, they're closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Ji said: What is this? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Talk to me goose. WTF happened. Those epic “wow” GEFS runs. Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding. Don't think, just DO IT Nino! South that SNE bliz back here in the DMV where it belongs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WSW up for Garrett. Shocked the crap outta me. Maybe some last minute hope elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 im taking the 00z icon, the 12z JMA for next saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 43 minutes ago, dailylurker said: LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. Good, bring on spring. And 60s are respectable temps at least vs 40s and 50s which are crap. Looking forward to some sustained good days. Maybe once the Sistene Chapel period finally kicks in we'll be basking in 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Eps signal for above normal precip below normal temps around Feb 24Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 53 minutes ago, dailylurker said: LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. Upper 40s was always going to be the best case for temps by that time of year. But we still need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps signal for above normal precip below normal temps around Feb 24 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk This weekend/early next week is still on the table. Guidance still hasn't resolved the storm for tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This weekend/early next week is still on the table. Guidance still hasn't resolved the storm for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Ji said: Need this one before the pattern changes to spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 CWG is starting to second guess themselves. If PD fails I think they might pronounce last rites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 CWG is starting to second guess themselves. If PD fails I think they might pronounce last rites.Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.Now watch us get a March hecs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall. Now watch us get a March hecs. For us, delayed is denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, 87storms said: Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall. Now watch us get a March hecs. The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 41 minutes ago, 87storms said: Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall. Now watch us get a March hecs. 37 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: For us, delayed is denied. 13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg. and 5 of those were during Nino years. So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg. and 5 of those were during Nino years. So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter. Noticing the use of past tense here, are you close to saying its more or less over besides the 18th-22nd time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Noticing the use of past tense here, are you close to saying its more or less over besides the 18th-22nd time period? Its never over for significant snow until at least March 15, especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We got time for a south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, AlexD1990 said: so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here... This is definitely a low point and things look kinda bleak tbh. But I urge everyone to hang in there until at least this weekend or even Monday 0z. Models are all over the place. If the pattern is looking like shit or we're not tracking by then, I dunno man 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here... I think the big threat, if we still have it, is not until after this weekend. And it's still there, it hasn't evaporated. Patience required. And with short run modeling being haywire this year, maybe we can get a quick win (win = seeing snowflakes) in the meantime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We got time for a south trend You need that northern low to die and that ss storm to explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.Exactly. Those backloaded winters were only backloaded on snow. There was cold air around for what seemed like November thru March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is definitely a low point and things look kinda bleak tbh. But I urge everyone to hang in there until at least this weekend or even Monday 0z. Models are all over the place. If the pattern is looking like shit or we're not tracking by then, I dunno man Keep the faith, March will be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Even Brooklyn has vanished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Even Brooklyn has vanished.I think he’s just tracking the actual snowstorm that his subforum is going to get. But yeah… eerily quiet. Probably for the best we focus on tomorrow’s oddness before opening this thread again anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Even Brooklyn has vanished. Yup. Cautionary tale for putting too much stock in long term models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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