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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. 

modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say

Of course they're more correct now, they're closer in time.

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Talk to me goose.  WTF happened.  Those epic “wow” GEFS runs.  Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding.  

Don't think, just DO IT Nino!

South that SNE bliz back here in the DMV where it belongs!

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43 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. 

Good, bring on spring.  And 60s are respectable temps at least vs 40s and 50s which are crap.   Looking forward to some sustained good days.  Maybe once the Sistene Chapel period finally kicks in we'll be basking in 70s.   

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53 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. 

Upper 40s was always going to be the best case for temps by that time of year.  But we still need the rain.

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Eps signal for above normal precip below normal temps around Feb 24e9ebb8b5507ac046cbafae59c421466d.jpg

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

This weekend/early next week is still on the table. Guidance still hasn't resolved the storm for tonight.

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CWG is starting to second guess themselves. If PD fails I think they might pronounce last rites.
F44E89BB-DC47-4B68-96B8-FD3DC66809CF.thumb.jpeg.548d97f17c33a0c3d3c443797c0e09b6.jpeg

Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.

Now watch us get a March hecs.
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24 minutes ago, 87storms said:


Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.

Now watch us get a March hecs.

The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.

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41 minutes ago, 87storms said:


Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.

Now watch us get a March hecs.

 

37 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

For us, delayed is denied.

13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg.  and 5 of those were during Nino years.  So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter.  

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg.  and 5 of those were during Nino years.  So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter.  

Noticing the use of past tense here, are you close to saying its more or less over besides the 18th-22nd time period?

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Just now, AlexD1990 said:

so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here...

This is definitely a low point and things look kinda bleak tbh.  But I urge everyone to hang in there until at least this weekend or even Monday 0z.   Models are all over the place.  If the pattern is looking like shit or we're not tracking by then, I dunno man

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7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here...

I think the big threat, if we still have it, is not until after this weekend. And it's still there, it hasn't evaporated. Patience required.  And with short run modeling being haywire this year, maybe we can get a quick win (win = seeing snowflakes) in the meantime.

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The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.

Exactly. Those backloaded winters were only backloaded on snow. There was cold air around for what seemed like November thru March.
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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is definitely a low point and things look kinda bleak tbh.  But I urge everyone to hang in there until at least this weekend or even Monday 0z.   Models are all over the place.  If the pattern is looking like shit or we're not tracking by then, I dunno man

Keep the faith, March will be rockin!

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