stormy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Blud thinks he assembling a team Its already 2 - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, GaWx said: @Stormchaserchuck1 has a very good chance at getting his +PNA for 2023-4 (assuming that’s what he predicted). More on that below. I forecasted a +PNA, but a lot of the CPC's calculations include Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I'm mostly referring to Aleutian islands central-north N. Pacific trough, in reference to +PNA. In that regard, this Winter has not matched usual ENSO correlations, and really the whole event has been like that, since the Nino developed in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast the 3rd wave is tomorrow. It’s actually a sneaky ok long wave pattern to get an unexpected snow. I saw a few 4-8” type wet snow events in this type of setup in my case studies. It’s sneaky because none of the features is anomalous and sticks out but there is a subtle 50/50, subtle western ridge, a nice little ridge near Hudson and it’s an stj wave coming across at a low latitude. You. A see the suppressive influence in that the wave can’t gain much lat despite no cold at all in front of it. prime climo I think it’s reasonable to say we could have snuck some snow out of this despite the crap airmass in front of it in the past. Not for sure. Again it’s not any one or these it’s the accumulation that’s troubling. Yeah, if we had a cold airmass in place, we might have gotten a CAD thump (when’s the last time we had CAD?) before a dry slot during the coastal transfer then a ULL pass with additional snow. This year, the only way it snowed was with a -EPO/-NAO combo. PNA didn’t seem to matter. STJ? Any stj wave by itself was too warm. We needed that EPO to deliver the cold air, and a beast NAO to hold it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 18Z GFS, congrats New England, epic period for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WB 18Z GEFS, lows ticked closer to coast.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 @CAPE 120 and prime rib. It’s happening 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 58 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, if we had a cold airmass in place, we might have gotten a CAD thump (when’s the last time we had CAD?) before a dry slot during the coastal transfer then a ULL pass with additional snow. This year, the only way it snowed was with a -EPO/-NAO combo. PNA didn’t seem to matter. STJ? Any stj wave by itself was too warm. We needed that EPO to deliver the cold air, and a beast NAO to hold it down. yea. And this brings me back to a discussion from last winter I remember. Wish I could remember who it was with. But I was pointing out that historically the epo isn’t correlated to our snowfall. That’s because an epo ridge can dump the cold west. It can also be a dry pattern. Yes there are specific epo patterns that are very snowy. But there are also -epo ones that aren’t and various +epo patterns that are. The problem is the last 8 years a vast majority of our snow has come from a -epo dominant pattern. It’s the only times we’ve been cold enough! But -EPO isn’t suddenly more snowy and that’s why we’ve been in a rut, all the other various combos that should work haven’t been so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WB 18Z GFS, congrats New England, epic period for them...With the south trends all winter looks like we are in good shape 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: @CAPE 120 and prime rib. It’s happening yeah baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: yeah baby! Jesus Christ dude. It’s like drinking beer out of a bourbon barrel. I’m gonna nurse the fuck out of it whooo 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Ji said: With the south trends all winter looks like we are in good shape You aren’t kidding. This is why I’m not calling TOD on this winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS, congrats New England, epic period for them... Is this a nino or nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Is this a nino or nina? New Nino, instead of snowing in the south it snows in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: New Nino, instead of snowing in the south it snows in New England. New England hasn't been doing well with snow until now, though. In fact...BWI had more than Boston at the beginning of the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 What is this? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 What is this?Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Ji said: What is this? Comeback time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Ji said: What is this? It's a map of the 18z eps 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: It's a map of the 18z eps Talk to me goose. WTF happened. Those epic “wow” GEFS runs. Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Talk to me goose. WTF happened. Those epic “wow” GEFS runs. Never before seen runs….seems to be imploding. Agree. For days we heard it was an all time great pattern. Crickets now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Agree. For days we heard it was an all time great pattern. Crickets now. Models lost the nao basically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Models lost the nao basically Unfortunate. So what’s next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Models lost the nao basically Shit. Just checked all 3 ensembles and all show what looks to be a full latitude ridge connecting up into the Nao domain towards the end of February. If that happens I guess it's definitely ovah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Models lost the nao basically All the Models have been garbage all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Shit. Just checked all 3 ensembles and all show what looks to be a full latitude ridge connecting up into the Nao domain towards the end of February. If that happens I guess it's definitely ovah.And that can be trusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 And that can be trusted?No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: And that can be trusted? No. That's why I said if that happens. But we've already had this happen multiple times over the couple years so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Unfortunate. So what’s next? No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Unfortunate. So what’s next? Summer 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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