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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 @Stormchaserchuck1 has a very good chance at getting his +PNA for 2023-4 (assuming that’s what he predicted). More on that below.  

I forecasted a +PNA, but a lot of the CPC's calculations include Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I'm mostly referring to Aleutian islands central-north N. Pacific trough, in reference to +PNA. In that regard, this Winter has not matched usual ENSO correlations, and really the whole event has been like that, since the Nino developed in April. 

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast the 3rd wave is tomorrow. It’s actually a sneaky ok long wave pattern to get an unexpected snow. I saw a few 4-8” type wet snow events in this type of setup in my case studies. It’s sneaky because none of the features is anomalous and sticks out but there is a subtle 50/50, subtle western ridge, a nice little ridge near Hudson and it’s an stj wave coming across at a low latitude. You. A see the suppressive influence in that the wave can’t gain much lat despite no cold at all in front of it. prime climo I think it’s reasonable to say we could have snuck some snow out of this despite the crap airmass in front of it in the past. Not for sure. Again it’s not any one or these it’s the accumulation that’s troubling. 

Yeah, if we had a cold airmass in place, we might have gotten a CAD thump (when’s the last time we had CAD?) before a dry slot during the coastal transfer then a ULL pass with additional snow. 

This year, the only way it snowed was with a -EPO/-NAO combo. PNA didn’t seem to matter. STJ? Any stj wave by itself was too warm. We needed that EPO to deliver the cold air, and a beast NAO to hold it down. 

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58 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, if we had a cold airmass in place, we might have gotten a CAD thump (when’s the last time we had CAD?) before a dry slot during the coastal transfer then a ULL pass with additional snow. 

This year, the only way it snowed was with a -EPO/-NAO combo. PNA didn’t seem to matter. STJ? Any stj wave by itself was too warm. We needed that EPO to deliver the cold air, and a beast NAO to hold it down. 

yea. And this brings me back to a discussion from last winter I remember. Wish I could remember who it was with. But I was pointing out that historically the epo isn’t correlated to our snowfall. That’s because an epo ridge can dump the cold west. It can also be a dry pattern. Yes there are specific epo patterns that are very snowy. But there are also -epo ones that aren’t and various +epo patterns that are. 

The problem is the last 8 years a vast majority of our snow has come from a -epo dominant pattern.  It’s the only times we’ve been cold enough!  But -EPO isn’t suddenly more snowy and that’s why we’ve been in a rut, all the other various combos that should work haven’t been so much.  

 

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7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Models lost the nao basically

Shit. Just checked all 3 ensembles and all show what looks to be a full latitude ridge connecting up into the Nao domain towards the end of February. If that happens I guess it's definitely ovah.

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Shit. Just checked all 3 ensembles and all show what looks to be a full latitude ridge connecting up into the Nao domain towards the end of February. If that happens I guess it's definitely ovah.

And that can be trusted?
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19 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Unfortunate. So what’s next? 

No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. 

modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say

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