Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

[snowfan]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Why are you posting the day 12 of the worst operational model?  

The same reason you repeat the same analysis on a nearly daily basis. I want to and it’s something to talk about. Feel free to ignore if you disagree. Have a great day and enjoy the Super Bowl. 

[DarkSharkWX]

barely have made it to phase 8 

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 look at this 4 weeks!  

And if we get another 4 weeks to end winter like this it will skew the mean back towards this for the Dec-March period. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 look at this 4 weeks!  

Yeah we got 7-9"! Too bad it was the very middle of Winter in an ultra-favorable blocking pattern lol. We aren't doing it any other way these days. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah we got 7-9"! Too bad it was the very middle of Winter in an ultra-favorable blocking pattern lol. We aren't doing it any other way these days. 

you just said the quiet part out loud. 

[DarkSharkWX]

like the trend for more western ridging

[Chris78]

30 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So is it safe to say that this year being AN for the metros is off the table?

They have a chance.  For northern areas that shipped has probably sailed.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

like the trend for more western ridging

Yep, epo as well:

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Jan 7 is the obvious one. What were the other two?

The Dec “anafront” wave that I got 4”. It wasn’t actually an anafront. It was on long range guidance. It morphed into a nice caboose wave where the mid level and surface track was perfect for DC and Balt. I was actually NW of the best precip with that wave.  Only reason I was the snow max was the places further east that should have been were too warm!
 

 And the 850s were displaced well southeast of the actual rain snow line, east of 95, the whole event. Historically with these trailing waves behind a front the 850 and snow line are not that disconnected!  
 

Imo if I showed you just the h5, h7, h85, mslp, and qpf plots and said “where is the snow max” you’d probably say a nice 3-6 stripe right through DC/Balt. But they got white rain instead.  
 

I know it wasn’t as significant as the Jan 7 wave. That one could have been 6-10” if it was just colder. I know the slp took a slightly inside track but that’s because of the crap thermals. The mid and upper track of that wave was perfect and with better thermals the slp doesn’t jog inside and end up under mid level low like that imo. But those little 3-4” snows being subtracted add up.
 

 I’m not saying all 3 definitely should have been snow. I’m not saying every perfect track system in a bad thermal regime was snow in the past. But a significant % was. So I take note when they all seem to fail. If we go back through the last 7 years which we all know have been the worst snow period in DC/Balt recorded history, if we simply flip about 1/3 of all these perfect wave pass winter rainstorms to snow, it still wouldn’t be some epic good period. But we wouldn’t be talking about it the same way. We would simply be in the midst of one of our more typical down snow cycles that happen regularly through history. What’s made it awful instead of just bad is this phenomenon imo. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, epo as well:

Man that 50/50 low really went away. What a bad modeled feature! 

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 you know what this isn’t fair to you so imma just come out and say it. I’ve been beating around the bush with you because some freak out when anything related to warning gets brought up. But it seems what’s going on is I’m saying “this should work, look at all the times we snowed with that” and you seem to be  implying “that doesn’t work anymore”. 

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I hope there is something to track by next weekend.  One 6 plus inch storm would definitely lighten the mood in here....

By next weekend? We are literally tracking now for next weekend. And beyond.

[CAPE]

This place is starting to annoy the fuck out of me lol.

Anyway, its pre SB HH. KBS time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 you know what this isn’t fair to you so imma just come out and say it. I’ve been beating around the bush with you because some freak out when anything related to warning gets brought up. But it seems what’s going on is I’m saying “this should work, look at all the times we snowed with that” and you seem to be  implying “that doesn’t work anymore”. 

I like the EPO negative, and +PNA we haven't really seen this Winter.  I was just pointing out that LR models have been really bad, they keep showing an El Nino pattern, but since the El Nino developed in April, we never had a +pna. In Oct-Nov, I was saying the mean pattern in the SW N. Pacific was a ridge for a Strong Nino! It's no surprise the Euro weeklies busted and we only have some weak +pna in the medium range here. I'm worried that next Winter the pendulum may swing completely toward what you are calling -PDO. 

I get what you are saying about patterns that used to work.. and I agree, the PNA has a precipitation correlation here that is actually greater than the temperature correlation in the Wintertime! That means, the net air temps+precip makes -PNA more favorable for snow than +PNA. The deceiving thing is coastal lows form much stronger in +PNA, there is a +0.3 correlation vs -0.3 for -PNA.. so if you look at SLP you would say +PNA Is the obvious better pattern for snow. 

I think it's somewhat +AMO related. We've been getting this ridge where the Hadley Cell meets the mid-latitude Cell.. it started on the West coast, and especially the SW where it stopped raining after 1995. The Pacific Jet used to go into SF a lot, now it doesn't even rain there anymore.. the jet goes all the way up into Alaska.. Over the last few years, that pattern in the mid-latitudes has made it to the east coast.  The AMO changed in 1995, so I would say maybe wait for that to wane..  also, according to the CPC we aren't getting -NAO's nearly as much these days, and the WPO has been positive a lot.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I like the EPO negative, and +PNA we haven't really seen this Winter.  I was just pointing out that LR models have been really bad, they keep showing an El Nino pattern, but since the El Nino developed in April, we never had a +pna. In Oct-Nov, I was saying the mean pattern in the SW N. Pacific was a ridge for a Strong Nino! It's no surprise the Euro weeklies busted and we only have some weak +pna in the medium range here. I'm worried that next Winter the pendulum may swing completely toward what you are calling -PDO. 

I get what you are saying about patterns that used to work.. and I agree, the PNA has a precipitation correlation here that is actually greater than the temperature correlation in the Wintertime! That means the net air temps+precip makes -PNA more favorable for snow than +PNA. The deceiving thing is coastal lows forms much stronger in +PNA, there is a +0.3 correlation vs -0.3 for -PNA.. so if you look at SLP you would say +PNA Is the obvious better pattern. 

I think it's somewhat +AMO related. We've been getting this ridge where the Hadley Cell meets the mid-latitude Cell.. it started on the West coast, and especially the SW where it stopped raining after 1995. The Pacific used to go into SF a lot, now it doesn't even rain there anymore.. the jet goes all the way up into Alaska.. Over the last few years, that pattern in the mid-latitudes has made it to the east coast. 

The tropical forcing can't make it east of the MC for more than a minute. Not very Nino-like. When it persists in the crappy phases, we get more jet retraction, and -PNA. 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So is it safe to say that this year being AN for the metros is off the table?

If you need a sense of certainty, I guess. If you’re being realistic, it’s impossible to say. 

[stormy]

18 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

We arent even in the middle of the current interglacial yet. The planet will get way warmer before it happens. Although maybe we have sped it up.

I will be brief with an answer before deferring to the C.C. Thread.

You obviously misunderstand the premise.

This study suggests that the Glacial-interglacial cycles are not germane anymore because of our CO2 transgressions.

The climate gurus at the U.N. said 5 years ago that it would be more than 300 years before the AMOC shuts down.  Now, many scientists are saying with the AMOC at its weakest in 1,600 years, it could shut down completely between 2025 and 2095.

[Steve25]

If there's one thing I've learned from the process in here over the past few weeks, no matter what anyone is saying, if Bob Chill isn't in here expressing legitimate excitement/interest, we should probably temper expectations.  

Unless I missed any positivity from him, he's been awfully quiet during this period when many were going wild hyping up the 15th-25th. 

[Jebman]

Just now, stormy said:

I will be brief with an answer before deferring to the C.C. Thread.

You obviously misunderstand the premise.

This study suggests that the Glacial-interglacial cycles are not germane anymore because of our CO2 transgressions.

The climate gurus at the U.N. said 5 years ago that it would be more than 300 years before the AMOC shuts down.  Now, many scientists are saying with the AMOC at its weakest in 1,600 years, it could shut down completely between 2025 and 2095.

That's serious stuff. But we would all get snow

[Ralph Wiggum]

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I get what you are saying about patterns that used to work.. and I agree, the PNA has a precipitation correlation here that is actually greater than the temperature correlation in the Wintertime! That means, the net air temps+precip makes -PNA more favorable for snow than +PNA. 

This could theoretically work, -PNA, EPO ridge (cold air source), big NAO block keeping lows from cutting (track under the region). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This could theoretically work, -PNA, EPO ridge (cold air source), big NAO block keeping lows from cutting (track under the region). 

I know if we get a Stratosphere warming soon, like a lot of models are saying, we could get a bigger -NAO down the line. 

That was really my basis for thinking this could be a better Winter. This will be the 3rd Stratosphere warming.. another strong ENSO/strong QBO hit on 10mb conditions. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This could theoretically work, -PNA, EPO ridge (cold air source), big NAO block keeping lows from cutting (track under the region). 

Do you really expect a cfs model for 3 weeks away to verify?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Major trough in the NW on LR 12z GEFS.. that's been the Spring pattern lately. 

https://ibb.co/ZBq1Dqm

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I like the EPO negative, and +PNA we haven't really seen this Winter.  I was just pointing out that LR models have been really bad, they keep showing an El Nino pattern, but since the El Nino developed in April, we never had a +pna. In Oct-Nov, I was saying the mean pattern in the SW N. Pacific was a ridge for a Strong Nino! It's no surprise the Euro weeklies busted and we only have some weak +pna in the medium range here. I'm worried that next Winter the pendulum may swing completely toward what you are calling -PDO. 

I get what you are saying about patterns that used to work.. and I agree, the PNA has a precipitation correlation here that is actually greater than the temperature correlation in the Wintertime! That means, the net air temps+precip makes -PNA more favorable for snow than +PNA. The deceiving thing is coastal lows form much stronger in +PNA, there is a +0.3 correlation vs -0.3 for -PNA.. so if you look at SLP you would say +PNA Is the obvious better pattern for snow. 

I think it's somewhat +AMO related. We've been getting this ridge where the Hadley Cell meets the mid-latitude Cell.. it started on the West coast, and especially the SW where it stopped raining after 1995. The Pacific Jet used to go into SF a lot, now it doesn't even rain there anymore.. the jet goes all the way up into Alaska.. Over the last few years, that pattern in the mid-latitudes has made it to the east coast.  The AMO changed in 1995, so I would say maybe wait for that to wane..  also, according to the CPC we aren't getting -NAO's nearly as much these days, and the WPO has been positive a lot.

I agree with a lot of this. But why did you expect a +pna in a -PDO Nino?  There have been 4 Moderate/strong -PDO Ninos. None featured a +pna. Mean for the 4 is below. 

3 of the 4 were some of the snowiest winters in history here including 2010!  The one exception was 1973 which was a +QBO and has a crazy +++AO

So if we agree that was an outlier and toss all 3 examples of a -pdo moderate or stronger Nino featured both a -pna and a shit ton of snow.  
 

Actually if you simply take all moderate to strong ninos the mean is a -pna.  It’s only weak modoki ninos like 2003 and 2015 that feature a +pna.  But Baltimore averages 40” of snow in -QBO ninos despite the fact the pna is typically negative.  
 

I never expected a +pna this winter.  My analogs that produced a mean snow of 42” were  -PNA city.  There is something else going on.  It’s not the pna because the pna was negative in past epic snowy ninos.  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

If there's one thing I've learned from the process in here over the past few weeks, no matter what anyone is saying, if Bob Chill isn't in here expressing legitimate excitement/interest, we should probably temper expectations.  

Unless I missed any positivity from him, he's been awfully quiet during this period when many were going wild hyping up the 15th-25th. 

Yeah I was just thinking about that earlier...a quiet Chill isn't the most encouraging thing, lol But also it's a lot of moving parts with the pattern change right now...so there's nothing to say "Alright here it is!" with any certainty anyway.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with a lot of this. But why did you expect a +pna in a -PDO Nino?  There have been 4 Moderate/strong -PDO Ninos. None featured a +pna. Mean for the 4 is below. 

3 of the 4 were some of the snowiest winters in history here including 2010!  The one exception was 1973 which was a +QBO and has a crazy +++AO

 

You're right.. I underrated the -PDO this year. 5/5 non+PNA Mod/Strong Nino Winter's is a pretty compelling stat!  

If -PNA is wetter and +PNA is drier, imagine how much the difference is if you don't account for ENSO! +PNA's have been associated with El Nino's 80% of the time historically, and visa-versa. With wetter than average conditions in El Nino, what a difference the PNA makes in precip-correlation in non-ENSO times. That's why -PNA's in El Nino's have been historically good with -NAO/AO conditions. The Hadley Cell is just expanded right now.. With storms digging into the West Coast the last two Winters though, I don't know that, that isn't in the process of changing.. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You're right.. I underrated the -PDO this year. 5/5 non+PNA Mod/Strong Nino Winter's is a pretty compelling stat!  

If -PNA is wetter and +PNA is drier, imagine how much the difference is if you don't account for ENSO! +PNA's have been associated with El Nino's 80% of the time historically, and visa-versa. With wetter than average conditions in El Nino, what a difference the PNA makes in precip-correlation in non-ENSO times. That's why -PNA's in El Nino's have been historically good with -NAO/AO conditions. The Hadley Cell is just expanded right now.. 

That last part is where this all comes together. Maybe right now that just won’t work because everything’s shifted north by the expanded mid latitude circulation 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That last part is where this all comes together. Maybe right now that just won’t work because everything’s shifted north by the expanded mid latitude circulation 

I edited to say that storms are digging into the West coast with more frequency though.. And general High pressure over the SW hasn't been as constant a force the last few years... so maybe we are starting to change the longer term processes (related to the Hadley-mid latitude Cell)?

[Kevin Reilly]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Major trough in the NW on LR 12z GEFS.. that's been the Spring pattern lately. 

https://ibb.co/ZBq1Dqm

But we haven't begun the best winter pattern in like almost 10 years? 

[Baer16]

Are we all just going to ignore the trends for Tuesday's storm? 18z NAM gets DC N&W basically back in the game.